The Big Atlantic Canada Statistics Thread

[q12]

The Maritimes population just rolled past 2,100,000 on the clock.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/...018005-eng.htm

The Maritimes passed 2 Million sometime in 2022 for reference.

[KnoxfordGuy]

Quarterly population figures for Jan 1st are out.

Canada +.6% 40,769,890
New Brunswick +.4% 846,190
Nova Scotia +.3% 1,069,364
Prince Edward Island +.2% 176,162
Newfoundland and Labrador 0% 540,552

Canada Population Clock updated for March 27th, 2024:

Canada 40,999,787
New Brunswick 850,271
Nova Scotia 1,075,653
Prince Edward Island 176,859
Newfoundland and Labrador 541,565

[MonctonRad]

Very interesting.

So, with the update, NB has now cracked 850,000. Next level is 900,000.

We were 845,200 at the new year .That is 5,000 in less than 3 months, about 20,000 people per year. We should be at 900,000 by the fall of 2026, and 1M people by 2031.

NB has a faster growth rate currently than NS???

Maritime population is now 2,102,783

Atlantic Canada population is now 2,643,335

[Taeolas]

New Brunswick's growth seems to be consistent as well. As you noted, we grew by 5000 between January and March, which is a quarter.

The stats said as of January, we had grown by 0.4%, which is about 4000 people as well. So over those two quarters, our rate was pretty stable.

1M by 2030 is probably a stretch, but it isn't impossible to consider. Hitting the 900k will be a big milestone for round numbers too.

[adamuptownsj]

1/3 of an electoral district in a quarter, probably 50-60% of that in Metro Moncton. At the low end that would be 2/3 of an ED annually. While this will increase the average size of all seats, even if it tapers off (and taking non-citizens and minors, who are not electors, out of play), at least 2 seats will move to Westmorland from elsewhere by the next redraw in 2030.

[MonctonRad]

An interesting graphic found in the Canada section:



Alberta is making out like a bandit in terms of interprovincial migration figures from last year, but NS and NB are #2 and #3.

The trendlines established during the pandemic are continuing...........

It would be reasonable to assume that the majority of inflow to AB is from BC, SK, MB and, to some degree ON.

It would also be reasonable to assume most on the inflow to NB and NS is from ON, and to a much lesser extent, QC.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

An interesting graphic found in the Canada section:



Alberta is making out like a bandit in terms of interprovincial migration figures from last year, but NS and NB are #2 and #3.

The trendlines established during the pandemic are continuing...........

It would be reasonable to assume that the majority of inflow to AB is from BC, SK, MB and, to some degree ON.

It would also be reasonable to assume most on the inflow to NB and NS is from ON, and to a much lesser extent, QC.

Pretty much. BC and Ontario have the highest absolute migration to AB, but BC ismuch higher per capita, followed by the other prairie provinces. Atlantic Canada has the smallest numbers going to AB, but it does have higher per-capita migration there than Ontario does.

Still, New Brunswick had net positive inflows from five provinces (NL, PEI, ON, MB and BC) and Nova Scotia from seven (PEI, NB, PQ, ON, MB, SK, BC). If we look back at the past few Q4s we can maybe start to piece together trendlines: New Brunswick's Q4 2021 saw a net gain of about 1,500 people. That was 1,000 in Q4 2022, and only 300 in Q4 2023. Nova Scotia had a net gain of about 1,900 in Q4 2021, down to 1,000 in Q4 2022, and then a small drop to about 850 last quarter (after a flat/slightly negative quarter).

My guess is not that we're gradually reverting to the bad days of constant outmigration, but that the big influx is easing and we're probably moving into a gentler but still generally positive growth pattern, offset by the occasional negative quarter.

It will be especially interesting to see what happens to Alberta over the next couple of years, since that province is absolutely the heavy in the country. A lot of people moving there due to relatively higher wages and lower costs of living, but rents and real-estate prices, especially in Calgary, have really been spiralling due to the huge growth. I would also guess that in a couple of years we'll start to moderating growth there too, as the exuberance of this moment fades and the price advantage slips (unlike past Alberta population booms, this one is driven not so much by the local labour mareket as by the fact that it's more affordable--until the crush of newcomers shrinks that advantage.)

[sailor734]

I actually know a young couple who moved here to SJ from Kamloops during the pandemic. Bought a house sight unseen (other than a video walkthrough). loaded their dogs in the car and drove cross country. Their number one motivation? To be able to own a home.

[adamuptownsj]

Telegraph Journal says we're at 850,000.

[darkharbour]

Fun article from real estate website Zoocasa with Saint John as the most affordable housing market in their scan of North America:

https://www.zoocasa.com/blog/us-vs-c...market-report/


picture hosting free

[MonctonRad]

There was a CTV article on TV the other night, stating that the two most affordable residential markets in Canada were Moncton and Saint John. They interviewed a realtor who had herself moved to Moncton (from Toronto) a couple of years ago, who frequently deals with clients from the GTHA who buy properties down here sight unseen so they can escape real estate penury in Ontario and move to a jurisdiction where they might conceivably have some disposable income.

This is putting a lot of pressure on the market for Maritimers looking to buy their own first homes.

[darkharbour]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

There was a CTV article on TV the other night, stating that the two most affordable residential markets in Canada were Moncton and Saint John. They interviewed a realtor who had herself moved to Moncton (from Toronto) a couple of years ago, who frequently deals with clients from the GTHA who buy properties down here sight unseen so they can escape real estate penury in Ontario and move to a jurisdiction where they might conceivably have some disposable income.

This is putting a lot of pressure on the market for Maritimers looking to buy their own first homes.

This is definitely visible in my experience, almost half my small residential street in SJ is now ex-Ontarians who moved to NB in the last 2-3 years, and virtually all of the job applicants for the last few positions we've advertised for at my office are all being sent from Ontario addresses. I can't blame them for looking at other options given the market in the GTA, and I love the expansion of our labour market to include those with more broad experiences outside of the region, but it definitely has a chilling effect on those who have been trying to work local salary levels to save up for home ownership.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

This is definitely visible in my experience, almost half my small residential street in SJ is now ex-Ontarians who moved to NB in the last 2-3 years, and virtually all of the job applicants for the last few positions we've advertised for at my office are all being sent from Ontario addresses. I can't blame them for looking at other options given the market in the GTA, and I love the expansion of our labour market to include those with more broad experiences outside of the region, but it definitely has a chilling effect on those who have been trying to work local salary levels to save up for home ownership.

Same (Moncton). The market has cooled from "surface of the sun" to "lava".
Every once in a while I check realtor.ca in my neighbourhood and see stuff that should have sold for 90-110K a few years back now in the 250-300K range. And all of my neighbours who have recently bought (3 on my block that I know of) are from Ontario.

It's ironic that I'm sitting on about 200k more house equity than 4 years ago but it doesn't mean a lot to me, considering my real plan was just to pay it off and live here for another decade or two. Just means more taxes.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Nashe

It's ironic that I'm sitting on about 200k more house equity than 4 years ago but it doesn't mean a lot to me, considering my real plan was just to pay it off and live here for another decade or two. Just means more taxes.

Agreed.

Increased housing equity is in many ways false wealth. It's a sham.

Sure, your house may have shot up in value $200-300,000 in the last few years, but, you really can't cash in on it. If you sell it, you have to buy somewhere else, and, if the entire market has gone up, then you just have to reinvest this money into your new house. The net result is that you are no richer than you were before.

Housing is not really an investment. It is just a place to live.

[bridgeoftea]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agreed.

Increased housing equity is in many ways false wealth. It's a sham.

Sure, your house may have shot up in value $200-300,000 in the last few years, but, you really can't cash in on it. If you sell it, you have to buy somewhere else, and, if the entire market has gone up, then you just have to reinvest this money into your new house. The net result is that you are no richer than you were before.

Housing is not really an investment. It is just a place to live.

The only way it's sort of an investment is those who were lucky enough to purchase homes in Toronto/Vancouver, who can sell their house equity and buy cheaper.

There's also going to be a phase in the next 10-30 years where parents who have houses paid off in Vancouver / Toronto / Victoria etc who only have 1 child to leave the house too has the potential to have a large portion of their retirement fund ready for them.

[Nashe]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Sure, your house may have shot up in value $200-300,000 in the last few years, but, you really can't cash in on it. If you sell it, you have to buy somewhere else, and, if the entire market has gone up, then you just have to reinvest this money into your new house. The net result is that you are no richer than you were before.

Heck, I can't even "downsize" when I retire because smaller houses now cost far more than what I have left on my mortgage. If I wanna move it's gonna have to be out of the country.

[Taeolas]

Not sure if Freddy hit those charts or not but the market is still "Lava Hot" here it seems. I think 2 Condos in my complex sold within 4 days.... and that includes a weekend. So demand is still quite high. I'm too antisocial to tell how many Ontario refugees have come in so I don't know there.

[Pugsley]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agreed.

Increased housing equity is in many ways false wealth. It's a sham.

Sure, your house may have shot up in value $200-300,000 in the last few years, but, you really can't cash in on it. If you sell it, you have to buy somewhere else, and, if the entire market has gone up, then you just have to reinvest this money into your new house. The net result is that you are no richer than you were before.

Housing is not really an investment. It is just a place to live.

That is short-sighted. Housing isn't supposed to be a short-term gain investment. It is a long-term investment, like any other sensible asset or financial plan. If you bought a house for $250K and in 25 years paid it off and it increased in value by $400K, then you'd have $650K in equity, which you either sell and choose to put in investments, then rent...OR which many seniors do, take a home equity loan and remain in the house. Either way, it is building personal equity and an investment all the same.

[Bishop2047]

Originally Posted by darkharbour

Fun article from real estate website Zoocasa with Saint John as the most affordable housing market in their scan of North America:

https://www.zoocasa.com/blog/us-vs-c...market-report/


picture hosting free

Wild to see median income not really correlating with cost of housing at all in many cities. SJ and Vancouver are separated by on 10,000 in median income but are at very different ends of this chart when it comes to housing costs.

[jonny golden]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Agreed.

Increased housing equity is in many ways false wealth. It's a sham.

Sure, your house may have shot up in value $200-300,000 in the last few years, but, you really can't cash in on it. If you sell it, you have to buy somewhere else, and, if the entire market has gone up, then you just have to reinvest this money into your new house. The net result is that you are no richer than you were before.

Housing is not really an investment. It is just a place to live.

There is a trend where empty nesters are selling their homes and moving into apartments. Many of them are renting the higher end units, and have enough cash from the sale of their home to help make it easy to pay the rent for the rest of their lives.

I remember Vaughn MacLellan stating that his clients for the Tannery Place apartments were exactly that. Rent a very nice unit, your car is parked inside if you want to go away for a trip, and a lot less responsibility than owning a house in the suburbs.