Federal Government & Politics II

[Xelebes]

As the site is experiencing performance issues, we are closing threads that have gone long past old benchmarks. We are seeing if this helps anything.

Please continue.

[MonctonRad]

Such a shame that 54,000 posts of bile and vitriol directed against JT have been lost.

But, have no fear, the old thread has been archived, and if people want to wax nostalgic, the old thread can be found here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=236344

[Truenorth00]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Such a shame that 54,000 posts of bile and vitriol directed against JT have been lost.

But, have no fear, the old thread has been archived, and if people want to wax nostalgic, the old thread can be found here:

https://skyscraperpage.com/forum/sho...d.php?t=236344

1000 page threads are ridiculously unwieldy. We should do new ones annually.

[Hawrylyshyn]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

1000 page threads are ridiculously unwieldy. We should do new ones annually.

I like this idea. "Federal Government and Politics 20__", remade each year

[JakeLRS]

Originally Posted by Hawrylyshyn

I like this idea. "Federal Government and Politics 20__", remade each year

Wow, this is exactly what Trudeau wants to do! Erase history!
- Conservative Voter, Probably

[whatnext]

The government's own internal polling has some dire numbers:

Trudeau government’s own polling program is saying it’s in trouble
By David Akin Global News
Posted October 22, 2023 4:41 am

A detailed series of internal government polls obtained by Global News paints a picture of a government struggling to win approval from Canadians on just about any issue, while showing sharp regional differences when it comes to the top priorities voters want Ottawa to tackle.

Weekly polls commissioned by the Privy Council Office from January through to June show a government given a failing grade by a healthy majority for the way it was handling the economy, climate change, Indigenous issues and crime.

Only on the issue of Canada-U.S. relations did a majority of respondents — 51 per cent — agree the government was on the right track when it came to managing that file.

Overall, through the first six months, the majority of the 24,000 or so who were polled said, week in, week out, that the Trudeau government was on the wrong track....

https://globalnews.ca/news/10033201/...lling-trouble/

[tyeman200]

Originally Posted by Hawrylyshyn

I like this idea. "Federal Government and Politics 20__", remade each year

That's what most of my other forums do. I was surprised to see this forum with threads of 1000+ replies or pages.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Truenorth00

1000 page threads are ridiculously unwieldy. We should do new ones annually.

Wonder if that played a role in the database overloads of the last few weeks …

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by lio45

Wonder if that played a role in the database overloads of the last few weeks …

That's the whole reason why the mods committed wholesale seppuku to the old threads, to rectify the situation.......

[MolsonExport]

Such a shame that 54,000 posts of bile and vitriol directed against JT have been lost.

I don't think I would lament the loss of 54,000 posts of "bile and vitriol". That's Migsian and RRSkylarian.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I don't think I would lament the loss of 54,000 posts of "bile and vitriol". That's Migsian and RRSkylarian.

There is some thoughtful and poignant bile and vitriol mixed in there too.

[goodgrowth]

I suspect it isn't just the length of the threads but also how image heavy some of them can be...

Some of the development threads probably have 50+ high res images on each page. That has to be impacting performance.

I have argued before that posts should have an image cap of like 4. Some people are posting like 10+ high res images in each post. It can takes 5 minutes of scrolling to get to the bottom of the page. It's crazy and terrible from a UX perspective alone.

[lio45]

Had a laugh at Hawrylyshyn’s post in the now locked newborn CPC thread… Two threads, one being “The Thread for Shitting on Trudeau” and the other “The Thread for Shitting on Poilievre”. (And yes; totally deliberate that Singh doesn’t even get a thread.)

[JakeLRS]

338 Canada Federal Projections https://338canada.com/federal.htm
October 22, 2023

Party | Seat Projection | Margin | Popular Vote Projection | Margin

CPC: 205 [168-224] 40% (+-4%)
LPC: 81 [59-114] 28% (+-3%)
BQ: 30 [24-36] 7% (+-1%)
NDP: 20 [13-35] 18% (+-1%)
GRN: 2 [1-3] 4% (+-1%)

[acottawa]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

338 Canada Federal Projections https://338canada.com/federal.htm
October 22, 2023

Party | Seat Projection | Margin | Popular Vote Projection | Margin

CPC: 205 [168-224] 40% (+-4%)
LPC: 81 [59-114] 28% (+-3%)
BQ: 30 [24-36] 7% (+-1%)
NDP: 20 [13-35] 18% (+-1%)
GRN: 2 [1-3] 4% (+-1%)

Still a year and a half away of course, but they are staring down the barrel of one of the worst defeats in Liberal history and are doing nothing to update or change policies.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by JakeLRS

338 Canada Federal Projections https://338canada.com/federal.htm
October 22, 2023

Party | Seat Projection | Margin | Popular Vote Projection | Margin

CPC: 205 [168-224] 40% (+-4%)
LPC: 81 [59-114] 28% (+-3%)
BQ: 30 [24-36] 7% (+-1%)
NDP: 20 [13-35] 18% (+-1%)
GRN: 2 [1-3] 4% (+-1%)

The first time that I've seen the CPC ahead of the NDP's Charlie Angus in Timmins-James Bay. The nominated CPC candidate is Gaetan Malette who is quite well known and lives in Timmins.

[YOWetal]

Originally Posted by Loco101

The first time that I've seen the CPC ahead of the NDP's Charlie Angus in Timmins-James Bay. The nominated CPC candidate is Gaetan Malette who is quite well known and lives in Timmins.

The model doesn't reflect local candidate's start power at least not between elections so that is assuming a uniform movement across Ontario.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by YOWetal

The model doesn't reflect local candidate's start power at least not between elections so that is assuming a uniform movement across Ontario.

I'd say this is definitely true for most ridings in the country at the moment.

In the case of Timmins-James Bay Gaétan Malette may be a good choice in that the Tories are generally the least favourite choice of francophones (they make up 40% or so of the riding). Francophones in Ontario typically vote as a kind of bloc, usually for the Liberals, occasionally for the NPD but rarely for the Tories.

A high-profile francophone candidate like Malette plus cross-Canada ascendency for the CPC sounds like a winning proposition for them in that riding at least.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I'd say this is definitely true for most ridings in the country at the moment.

In the case of Timmins-James Bay Gaétan Malette may be a good choice in that the Tories are generally the least favourite choice of francophones (they make up 40% or so of the riding). Francophones in Ontario typically vote as a kind of bloc, usually for the Liberals, occasionally for the NPD but rarely for the Tories.

A high-profile francophone candidate like Malette plus cross-Canada ascendency for the CPC sounds like a winning proposition for them in that riding at least.

You are generally correct about the francophone vote here. The only time I think it went conservative here was in 1984 when Mulroney became PM and Aurèle Gervais became our MP. It was pretty much a 3-way split among the three main candidates and Gervais came out on top. It certainly helped that both the PC leader and the riding candidate could speak fluent French and appeal to francophones. I don't think we've had a francophone PC or CPC candidate since until Gaétan Malette won the nomination last week.

The CPC is hoping for the same sort of success as the Ontario PCs had in Timmins although the federal riding is quite different in many aspects but there is likely enough appetite for change that Malette is most likely to win under current conditions.

[lio45]

You know the apple thing has become a thing when the cartoonists get on board



https://www.journaldemontreal.com/20...cature-dygreck