Quote:
Originally Posted by BretttheRiderFan
News of the federal NDP's death have been greatly exaggerated in the past and are greatly exaggerated now. Four years ago the Liberals were going to die out and become the British Liberals and now they're in a majority again. Nobody foresaw 2011 for the NDP and even fewer foresaw 2015 for the Libs.
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Your points are well taken but the situation today is far different than it use to be.
Their union support has declined greatly as their bastions of blue collar backing has fallen in tandem with the power of unions. They use to get a lot of the younger vote looking for a option to voice their progressive opinions without going thru the established Liberals and Conservatives but that too has passed them by with the rise of the Greens.
It was often said that "the NDP are just Liberals in a hurry" which in many ways was often true but far less so now as the Liberals have moved further left leaving the NDP with far fewer social policies that it can call it's own. As the population ages, many of those older voters may drift more towards the Conservatives as may many disenfranchised blue collar workers similar of how many blue collar workers in the US left the Democrats for the Republican.
As I said, the demographics of NDP have taken a turn for the worse........the Greens getting the young and environmental vote, the Liberals getting a lot of the traditional NDP socially progressive vote as well as the highly educated, and the Conservatives benefitting from some of the disenfranchised blue collar workers.
I also think that a lot of soft NDP voters are starting to no longer see the NDP as a viable 3rd option as many have basically accepted the fact that the NDP will never get to power in Ottawa or even see it as a protest vote as many of those are going to the Greens.