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  #1  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 9:02 AM
YSL YSL is offline
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Mapping where Millenials are moving to (and leaving)



https://www.apartmentlist.com/renton...lation-trends/

In raw numbers, LA, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix saw the largest drops in millenial population.
NYC, Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, DC, Austin saw the largest gains.

Last edited by YSL; May 1, 2017 at 12:44 AM.
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  #2  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 12:48 PM
balletomane balletomane is offline
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Interesting map, those top cities that millennials are leaving are either shrinking (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) or are extremely sprawling (Los Angeles, Atlanta, Phoenix), Miami seems to be a bit of an outlier.

Should those trends continue I wonder how much it will effect the future success of these cities, especially the ones that are already shrinking?
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  #3  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 3:56 PM
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It is interesting that, despite popular perception, millenials are leaving Portland. This also shows that it may be time to invent the concept of the Old Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, St Louis, Toledo, Flint) vs the New Midwest (Minneapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Omaha, Grand Rapids, Iowa and the Dakotas). They are on clearly different tracks.
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  #4  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 4:16 PM
the urban politician the urban politician is offline
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Originally Posted by Chef View Post
It is interesting that, despite popular perception, millenials are leaving Portland. This also shows that it may be time to invent the concept of the Old Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, St Louis, Toledo, Flint) vs the New Midwest (Minneapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Omaha, Grand Rapids, Iowa and the Dakotas). They are on clearly different tracks.
Uhhh, no.

Chicago isn't the "old Midwest". That's ludicrous.

I'm sure the story is more complex than a simple interpretation that the red cities are the "cities of the past" and the green cities are the "cities of the future"
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  #5  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 4:24 PM
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Originally Posted by the urban politician View Post

I'm sure the story is more complex than a simple interpretation that the red cities are the "cities of the past" and the green cities are the "cities of the future"
No but things like overall growth and economic performance generally correspond to where millenials are moving to and from in the Midwest. I don't know if you noticed but Chicago isn't doing that well these days, it was one of the last cities to come out of the recession and is now posting metro population losses.
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  #6  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 4:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Chef View Post
No but things like overall growth and economic performance generally correspond to where millenials are moving to and from in the Midwest. I don't know if you noticed but Chicago isn't doing that well these days, it was one of the last cities to come out of the recession and is now posting metro population losses.
This means nothing, the situations of Chicago and other cities are more nuanced than that, the last thing we need are more arbitrary labels that box in cities that are hardly related as it is.

Are you going to make the case that LA isn't "doing well" either? Should we call it old california?
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  #7  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 5:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Chef View Post
It is interesting that, despite popular perception, millenials are leaving Portland. This also shows that it may be time to invent the concept of the Old Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, St Louis, Toledo, Flint) vs the New Midwest (Minneapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Omaha, Grand Rapids, Iowa and the Dakotas). They are on clearly different tracks.
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Originally Posted by balletomane View Post
Interesting map, those top cities that millennials are leaving are either shrinking (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland) or are extremely sprawling (Los Angeles, Atlanta, Phoenix), Miami seems to be a bit of an outlier.

Should those trends continue I wonder how much it will effect the future success of these cities, especially the ones that are already shrinking?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chef View Post
No but things like overall growth and economic performance generally correspond to where millenials are moving to and from in the Midwest. I don't know if you noticed but Chicago isn't doing that well these days, it was one of the last cities to come out of the recession and is now posting metro population losses.
Are you serious?

Chicago metro has the highest employment numbers of all time right now. And the central area is going crazy. Chicago is building orders of magnitude more highrises than the entire Midwest and then some. For the Midwest, Chicago is not the "city of the past".

I could care less what this silly graph is showing.
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  #8  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 4:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chef View Post
It is interesting that, despite popular perception, millenials are leaving Portland. This also shows that it may be time to invent the concept of the Old Midwest (Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Cincinnati, St Louis, Toledo, Flint) vs the New Midwest (Minneapolis, Columbus, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Omaha, Grand Rapids, Iowa and the Dakotas). They are on clearly different tracks.
the door of slackerdom officially closed in 2008. portland recovered from the recession but in the process, bounced back too well. all of the punk rock baristas got priced out of the central city. the (lazy) days of lackadaisical whimsy and 400 dollar rent are over. now were just a boring big city with shiny apartments and bumpy streets but you better have your resume tuned up i guess. glad to see the midwest revving things up a bit too though, especially grand rapids. that town is great, one of my favorite mid sized cities. also this map is probably deceiving. young people might be coming and going but it doesn't break it down by race, just age. certain cities are seeing whites move in and blacks move out. even atlanta is seeing that trend. but other cities like indianapolis and minneapolis are seeing large black gains. so people are just on the move. i dont think it necessarily tells the whole tale.
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  #9  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 4:33 PM
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Seems like a lot of (but not all) of the growth has to do with cities/metros where there are large public universities (excluding places like LA, Phoenix and possibly Chicago)
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  #10  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 6:37 PM
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Not surprised about Los Angeles.

High cost of living and a lousy job market, the worst of both worlds.
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  #11  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 4:04 AM
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Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
Not surprised about Los Angeles.

High cost of living and a lousy job market, the worst of both worlds.
It's funny because sometimes it feels like it's not the NUMBER of jobs that sucks but the pay and field of the jobs (service sector) that sucks.
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  #12  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 4:35 AM
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Originally Posted by ChargerCarl View Post
Not surprised about Los Angeles.

High cost of living and a lousy job market, the worst of both worlds.
Well, high cost of living will always apply. LA, in spite of all its livability issues, still remains a highly desirable city. The housing supply will never catch up with the demand.

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Originally Posted by JDRCRASH View Post
It's funny because sometimes it feels like it's not the NUMBER of jobs that sucks but the pay and field of the jobs (service sector) that sucks.
Correct. As of March 2017, LA's unemployment rate was at 4.6% -- its lowest level in at least 30 years. That was lower than the state average of 4.9% and slightly above the national average of 4.5%.

Our local economy is in a relatively healthy state, but it's not quite booming with enough professional jobs to mitigate the high housing costs.
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  #13  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 6:58 PM
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And in another 10-15 years, these millennials will be fleeing the city in favor of the suburbs, as they settle down with their spouse and kids, replaced by the next generation of entitled 20 something college grads, living in cramped quarters with roommates, paying ridiculous rents and college loan payments while attempting to save enough for a down payment for a home which will be located outside of the city.
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  #14  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 8:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Leo the Dog View Post
And in another 10-15 years, these millennials will be fleeing the city in favor of the suburbs, as they settle down with their spouse and kids, replaced by the next generation of entitled 20 something college grads, living in cramped quarters with roommates, paying ridiculous rents and college loan payments while attempting to save enough for a down payment for a home which will be located outside of the city.
That's already started:
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-relea...300415487.html
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  #15  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 9:27 PM
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Yep, I imagine it's the older millennials 30-34 years of age that are the ones migrating to the burbs and in another 10+ years the younger ones will come of age and do the same.
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  #16  
Old Posted Apr 30, 2017, 8:28 PM
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I notice a green dot in Western North Carolina that would be my little blip on the map. I'm not at all surprised.

Neither is my partner. He's in charge of shepherding new hires through their first few months at one of the biggest employers in this part of the state. He sent me this youtube clip one day along with a litany of curse words to explain how ever word of it is the unvarnished truth:

Video Link
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  #17  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 12:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YSL View Post

In raw numbers, LA, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Atlanta, Phoenix, Cleveland saw the largest drops in millenial population.
NYC, Houston, Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, DC, Austin saw the largest gains.
Yeah, not sure where you get Cleveland from as one of the biggest drops. The map shows it green, and in the article there's a graph showing an increase of 1.5-2% (a big turn around for the CLE!). Speaking of my neighborhood alone (Ohio City) there has been alot of construction and rehabs lately, and I've seen and met alot of transplants. California seems to be the most common out of state license plates I see.

The article actually says: The biggest declines, however, tended to happen on the South and Midwest. Detroit, Miami, Richmond, Atlanta, and Phoenix all saw millennial population declines of 6% or more.

Just want to set that straight
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  #18  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 1:25 AM
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The article actually says: The biggest declines, however, tended to happen on the South and Midwest. Detroit, Miami, Richmond, Atlanta, and Phoenix all saw millennial population declines of 6% or more.
The one thing all of those cities have in common is lots of nonwhite (mostly black and Latino) millennials. It makes me wonder how much of this is domestic migration by young people of color to other areas with more opportunity.

Another thing to consider, as this is a metro-wide list, is that in 2005 a lot of millennials were still teenagers living with their parents. Depending upon the definition used at that time, the oldest millennials were either still in college or just a few years out of college. Hence a lot of the net decline could just be young people moving away from their parents home in the suburbs, along with the central city not being enough of a draw to make up the difference.
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  #19  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 7:41 AM
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Originally Posted by eschaton View Post
The one thing all of those cities have in common is lots of nonwhite (mostly black and Latino) millennials. It makes me wonder how much of this is domestic migration by young people of color to other areas with more opportunity.
Phoenix is a surprisingly Anglo city compared to, say, Tucson. Phoenix was essentially founded by westward migrating Americans rather than northward migrating Mexicans (and/or local native tribes) like Tucson. That said, I meet an awfully large number of people born and raised through college in Arizona who hav moved to the Bay Area and I bet there are even more of them in LA and San Diego--mostly white, though.
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  #20  
Old Posted May 1, 2017, 2:07 PM
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Phoenix is a surprisingly Anglo city compared to, say, Tucson. Phoenix was essentially founded by westward migrating Americans rather than northward migrating Mexicans (and/or local native tribes) like Tucson. That said, I meet an awfully large number of people born and raised through college in Arizona who hav moved to the Bay Area and I bet there are even more of them in LA and San Diego--mostly white, though.
Historically yes, Phoenix was an Anglo city not too long ago, while Tucson has always been much more 'Southwestern', similar to ABQ or El Paso. However, Phoenix, pop 1.6 million, has seen a huge shift in their demographics in the last 25 years. Non-Hispanic whites represent just 46.5% of the city (in 2010), it has surely dropped even lower in the past 7 years.

1970: White (including white hispanics) - 93.3%
2010: White (including white hispanics) - 65.9%

Quote:
Phoenix's population has historically been predominantly white. From 1890 to 1970, over 90% of the citizens were white. In recent years, this percentage has dropped, reaching 65% In 2010.

20.6% of the population of the city was foreign born in 2010. Of the 1,342,803 residents over 5 years of age, 63.5% spoke only English
source

The data includes years during the GR years where Phoenix was one of the hardest hit regions the US, maybe that has something to do with it too. Also, like you said, in 2005 some millennials were only 15 years old.
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