Which city next to 1 million

[someone123]

Originally Posted by logan5

Condo tower units are the worst deal going as far as housing products go. A ground oriented unit (such as a townhouse) is 100's of thousands less expensive, so if the city is concerned about affordability, they need to rezone more RS zones.

Ground floor condos tend to be the cheapest but this isn't the same as townhouse-only or duplex development compared to highrise condos. Townhouses are inherently more expensive in Vancouver.

In Vancouver most of the price of real estate is the land, and townhouses use more land per unit of living space. In places where land costs ten million an acre, townhouses are not economically optimal.

[ericmacm]

I'm surprised that Vancouver has not gotten to 1 million already, as amalgamation with the surrounding area could very easily make it huge. Unusual how it hasn't happened yet given Toronto's and Montreal's mega amalgamations. I am not confident that it will get to 1 million anytime soon otherwise, unfortunately. Growth is pretty steady at 4%, but I believe Surrey actually has a better chance at hitting 1 million before Vancouver does, since it's growing much faster at about 10%.

It will likely be Winnipeg that becomes the next city to actually grow to 1 million naturally. It's got the space and the growth % to get it there quick.

Since Mississauga has pretty much filled into its city limits, the only way that Mississauga beats it is amalgamation with Brampton, but who knows if that will happen. I see this amalgamation as likely but it doesn't really constitute "growth" in this sense. In addition to that, whatever new giant city comes out of a potential York Region amalgamation could be a real contender too. Even just combining Vaughan, Richmond Hill, and Newmarket would yield a population of 830,221 and would probably take it less than 10 years to hit 1 million, given how fast all three are growing.

[CityTech]

After Edmonton & Ottawa, I agree that Winnipeg will probably be the next municipality/city proper to have 1 million people, barring any municipal border changes.

[logan5]

Originally Posted by someone123

Ground floor condos tend to be the cheapest but this isn't the same as townhouse-only or duplex development compared to highrise condos. Townhouses are inherently more expensive in Vancouver.

In Vancouver most of the price of real estate is the land, and townhouses use more land per unit of living space. In places where land costs ten million an acre, townhouses are not economically optimal.

There are townhouses and tower units for sale in Norquay right now. The townhouses are around 150/sq foot cheaper than units in The Windsor on Kingsway. The same size townhouse unit in a tower will be 200k more.

https://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/ca/map#...x8fDErfHx8fHw=

[someone123]

Originally Posted by logan5

There are townhouses and tower units for sale in Norquay right now. The townhouses are around 150/sq foot cheaper than units in The Windsor on Kingsway. The same size townhouse unit in a tower will be 200k more.

https://www.buzzbuzzhome.com/ca/map#...x8fDErfHx8fHw=

Just think of how affordable downtown Vancouver would be if it were redeveloped into townhouses.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I agree that the metro population is the most important, though in the case of Ottawa the city proper population figure gives a pretty good idea too as I believe around 90-95% of the metro population on the Ontario side is within Ottawa city limits.

Sure, but that's like saying a given broken clock happens to be approximately correct at the moment.

It works sometimes, if you're lucky, but you're still much better off with a functional measurement device instead!

[logan5]

Originally Posted by someone123

Just think of how affordable downtown Vancouver would be if it were redeveloped into townhouses.

If the downtown property was zoned for townhouses, it would be more affordable.

[DizzyEdge]

Originally Posted by khabibulin

Okotoks is what the trolls here use to throw shade at Alberta.

throw shade

DEFINITION
publicly criticize or express contempt for someone.
"if she was really so above it all, she wouldn't have to throw shade"

Trust me, Albertans laugh about Okotoks too.

[LilZebra]

One day Airdrie, Alberta will top 1M.

[urbandreamer]

I think KWC may beat Hamilton to 1 million just because it has an enormous tech sector and if you combine it with Guelph it would be about the same size as Calgary when the suburbs sprawl east from Breslau c.2050s?

[logan5]

What are the rules in this thread? Kitchener is different municipality from Waterloo. Hamilton is only at 535k. Only 20k more than Surrey. Are people using Hamilton's cma?

These should be the official numbers...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._by_population

[ScreamingViking]

Originally Posted by logan5

What are the rules in this thread? Kitchener is different municipality from Waterloo. Hamilton is only at 535k. Only 20k more than Surrey. Are people using Hamilton's cma?

These should be the official numbers...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List..._by_population

Ontario's latest Census division population projections (Spring 2018) have Hamilton topping 740 thousand people by 2041.

I don't think it very likely the city will ever hit a million, unless there's a major shakeup in municipal boundaries (e.g., merge Burlington and Hamilton, which would cause a civil war in Halton). Hamilton also has a history of not meeting forecast figures, though the Toronto-wave of growth may finally help it do so.

Waterloo region is projected to be close to 718 thousand in 2041. I doubt it will reach a million either, never mind any of its municipalities.

But things change... and making long-range population projections can be like forecasting the weather.

CMAs on the other hand -- I think the Hamilton CMA will pass a million within the next 20 years. But Winnipeg will probably hit it first, and maybe Quebec City.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Here's a more interesting question: Which city will see its population halve by 2050?

[technomad]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

Here's a more interesting question: Which city will see its population halve by 2050?

all of them

[urbandreamer]

KWC is part of Waterloo Region which will one day sprawl into towns like St Jacobs, Elmira, Breslau, St Agatha; Baden and New Hamburg will sprawl into each other.

More importantly, unlike Hamilton or Winnipeg, KW is seeing a ton of development proposals for office and residential towers. Many considering Milton and Georgetown are now moving to Cambridge and Kitchener. The LRT expansion will bring even more people to the downtowns.

1 million by 2070.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

KWC is part of Waterloo Region which will one day sprawl into towns like St Jacobs, Elmira, Breslau, St Agatha; Baden and New Hamburg will sprawl into each other.

More importantly, unlike Hamilton or Winnipeg, KW is seeing a ton of development proposals for office and residential towers. Many considering Milton and Georgetown are now moving to Cambridge and Kitchener. The LRT expansion will bring even more people to the downtowns.

1 million by 2070.

Sure, but still curious why you think London before Winnipeg?

[Winnipegger]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

KWC is part of Waterloo Region which will one day sprawl into towns like St Jacobs, Elmira, Breslau, St Agatha; Baden and New Hamburg will sprawl into each other.

More importantly, unlike Hamilton or Winnipeg, KW is seeing a ton of development proposals for office and residential towers. Many considering Milton and Georgetown are now moving to Cambridge and Kitchener. The LRT expansion will bring even more people to the downtowns.

1 million by 2070.

Yeah, I don't think London is going to beat Winnipeg to one million under most normal circumstances (i.e. current birth/death/immigration rates). If we are specifically talking about municipal geographies (as opposed to Census Metropolitan Areas), based on each city's own forecasts, Winnipeg is forecast to reach around 920,000 people by 2040 and London is forecast to reach around 495,000 by 2040. From that, it's easy to tell which city proper will reach 1 million first.

Winnipeg population forecast: https://winnipeg.ca/finance/files/Co...c-Forecast.pdf

London population forecast: https://www.london.ca/business/Resou...20Appendix.pdf

[Mr.bond]

Originally Posted by ScreamingViking

Ontario's latest Census division population projections (Spring 2018) have Hamilton topping 740 thousand people by 2041.

I don't think it very likely the city will ever hit a million, unless there's a major shakeup in municipal boundaries (e.g., merge Burlington and Hamilton, which would cause a civil war in Halton). Hamilton also has a history of not meeting forecast figures, though the Toronto-wave of growth may finally help it do so.

Waterloo region is projected to be close to 718 thousand in 2041. I doubt it will reach a million either, never mind any of its municipalities.

But things change... and making long-range population projections can be like forecasting the weather.

CMAs on the other hand -- I think the Hamilton CMA will pass a million within the next 20 years. But Winnipeg will probably hit it first, and maybe Quebec City.

Obviously when discussing the Waterloo region it is not just one city, but in many ways it my as well be. a lot of services are combined and depended on Fords region review it could very well be 1 city in a couple years. The Region of Waterloo's official population as of 2018 according to there population statistics is a little over 600K. The Region states that it expects the region to grow to 729,000 by 2031. That is a growth rate of about 1.6%. The average for the region in the past 15 years is 1.5% so it is not complete out of the realm of possibility that they meet that goal. especially with the LRT and the amount of construction in the region. Obviously when 2-way all day GO is introduced the region could see a little boost in growth. I think the Region has positioned itself to eventually catch up to Hamilton in population.

If we are talking CMA I am of the opinion that eventually Guelph will be combined with Waterloo. There is already a significant amount of people that live in one of the cities and work in the other. If HWY 7 ever gets built it will be a 20 min drive between the two of them. This is anecdotal as there are guidelines of some sort to figure out if a community counts towards a CMA I am not really sure what those are. This could meant the that the Waterloo/Guelph CMA reaches 1 million by 2050.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Mr.bond

Obviously when discussing the Waterloo region it is not just one city, but in many ways it my as well be. a lot of services are combined and depended on Fords region review it could very well be 1 city in a couple years. The Region of Waterloo's official population as of 2018 according to there population statistics is a little over 600K. The Region states that it expects the region to grow to 729,000 by 2031. That is a growth rate of about 1.6%. The average for the region in the past 15 years is 1.5% so it is not complete out of the realm of possibility that they meet that goal. especially with the LRT and the amount of construction in the region. Obviously when 2-way all day GO is introduced the region could see a little boost in growth. I think the Region has positioned itself to eventually catch up to Hamilton in population.

If we are talking CMA I am of the opinion that eventually Guelph will be combined with Waterloo. There is already a significant amount of people that live in one of the cities and work in the other. If HWY 7 ever gets built it will be a 20 min drive between the two of them. This is anecdotal as there are guidelines of some sort to figure out if a community counts towards a CMA I am not really sure what those are. This could meant the that the Waterloo/Guelph CMA reaches 1 million by 2050.

Even with the new highway, living in K-W and working in Guelph, or vice-versa, is more happenstance than something people plan to do. There's little benefit to it as both offer similar amenities and housing prices are not greatly different. If you consider the K-C-W-G as a conurubation (there must be at least 10 kilometers of farmland between K(Breslau) and G), then yes, I could see it getting to one million sometime after 2050.

[Djeffery]

Originally Posted by Mr.bond

This is anecdotal as there are guidelines of some sort to figure out if a community counts towards a CMA I am not really sure what those are. This could meant the that the Waterloo/Guelph CMA reaches 1 million by 2050.

I seem to recall from decades ago that one criteria for a municipality to be included in a CMA was the percentage either of it's residents working in the CMA or percentage of it's own jobs held by residents of the CMA. Not sure if I'm remembering that right or if it's something that still is used.