Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[mistercorporate]

Originally Posted by EpicPonyTime

I wouldn't mind skipping the Con minority and having Trudeau step down to let Freeland lead the Liberals to another majority.

She definitely seems like the heir apparent and I for one cannot wait.

Yeah, I'd be okay with her if her policies align with my values. Anything but JT.

[Bcasey25raptor]

36% Liberal
35% Tory
20% ndp
6% green
3% other
seat count
Tories or Liberals will win a minority government, at this point I don't know which one will, but I feel the Tories will eke out a minority with 155 seats to the Liberal 150 seats.

Greens will win 2, NDP around 25, bloc/other 6.

Tories will primarily win former liberal wins from 2015.

Starting in BC the tories will retake kelowna easily, kootenays will also go Tory, in metro vancouver the langleys will go back to the tories, as will delta, south surrey, west vancouver-sea to sky, coquitlam, and all the fraser valley seats won last time.

Basically out of 42 seats in BC I think tje tories will win 20 which is double their 2015 number

so in 2015 they won 99 seats, these BC wins will drag them back up to 109

In Alberta they will retake Calgary skyview and calgary centre, they will also retake edmonton mill woods.

So in Alberta they will gain 3 seats.

In saskatchewan they likely will remain where they are now though in manitoba theyw ill retake winnipeg south, kildonan st paul, and Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley.

so on the prairies the cons will gain 6 seats

On to ontario, I'm not going to bother with a breakdown here because thats way too much effort but I can see Ontario swinging tory enough that many GTA seats return into tory hands and perhaps even some toronto property seats as well, all in all I think it's safe to say around 15-25 seats will be flipped by the tories in Ontario, I'll say 25 because it's a larger number and just to be safe
Onto quebec I think the Tories will win around 5 more seats there, and in atlantic Canada I think they will win around 10 seats

so all in all they started with 99 seats and they won 10 more in BC, 3 more in Alberta, 3 more in Manitoba, 25 in Ontario, 5 more in Quebec, and 10 in atlantic Canada

Tories total 155 seats.

without vote splitting on the left (strong NDP) the Tories can top out around 160 seats but this would be unlikely, all polls and mathematics so far point to a very weak win by Trudeau due to vote spread advantage alone.

If Singh rises in the polls during the election and the NDP polls in 25% of the vote than a Tory majority, a weak one mind you is likely to occur.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Bcasey25raptor

36% Liberal
35% Tory
20% ndp
6% green
3% other
seat count
Tories or Liberals will win a minority government, at this point I don't know which one will, but I feel the Tories will eke out a minority with 155 seats to the Liberal 150 seats.

Greens will win 2, NDP around 25, bloc/other 6.

Tories will primarily win former liberal wins from 2015.

Starting in BC the tories will retake kelowna easily, kootenays will also go Tory, in metro vancouver the langleys will go back to the tories, as will delta, south surrey, west vancouver-sea to sky, coquitlam, and all the fraser valley seats won last time.

Basically out of 42 seats in BC I think tje tories will win 20 which is double their 2015 number

so in 2015 they won 99 seats, these BC wins will drag them back up to 109

In Alberta they will retake Calgary skyview and calgary centre, they will also retake edmonton mill woods.

So in Alberta they will gain 3 seats.

In saskatchewan they likely will remain where they are now though in manitoba theyw ill retake winnipeg south, kildonan st paul, and Charleswood—St. James—Assiniboia—Headingley.

so on the prairies the cons will gain 6 seats

On to ontario, I'm not going to bother with a breakdown here because thats way too much effort but I can see Ontario swinging tory enough that many GTA seats return into tory hands and perhaps even some toronto property seats as well, all in all I think it's safe to say around 15-25 seats will be flipped by the tories in Ontario, I'll say 25 because it's a larger number and just to be safe
Onto quebec I think the Tories will win around 5 more seats there, and in atlantic Canada I think they will win around 10 seats

so all in all they started with 99 seats and they won 10 more in BC, 3 more in Alberta, 3 more in Manitoba, 25 in Ontario, 5 more in Quebec, and 10 in atlantic Canada

Tories total 155 seats.

without vote splitting on the left (strong NDP) the Tories can top out around 160 seats but this would be unlikely, all polls and mathematics so far point to a very weak win by Trudeau due to vote spread advantage alone.

If Singh rises in the polls during the election and the NDP polls in 25% of the vote than a Tory majority, a weak one mind you is likely to occur.

I think you are way too bullish on Conservative fortunes. Just my thoughts.

[Docere]

An analysis of how I see things by region.

Atlantic Canada

The Liberals will dominate again, but not win every single seat. The Tories will win at least some seats, at the very least their strongest NB ones. NDP likely to be shut out again, except for maybe in Halifax and St. John's if Megan Leslie and Jack Harris try to make comebacks.

Quebec

Liberals should gain some NDP and BQ seats. The Conservatives have little room for growth in terms of seats since their vote is so concentrated in the Quebec City/Beauce regions, but they are weak everywhere else. BQ are on their deathbed, but maybe the 2 MPs who won comfortably could hold on/ For the NDP, I see Guy Caron and Ruth Ellen Brosseau hanging on in their seats due to their personal popularity, but they're done everywhere else outside Montreal. In Montreal, I see Alexandre Boulerice hanging on given that he has personal popularity and a favorable riding. Outremont and Laurier are really the only other seats I see them possibly holding.

Ontario

I don't see the Conservatives having a GTA breakthrough, but they could pick up a few in York Region and outer 905. They are also likely to pick up a few rural seats that succumbed to the red tide in the Quinte region. The NDP hold what they have and likely win back their best three TO seats (Parkdale-High Park, Davenport, Danforth), Brampton East and maybe a few close Northern and "rust belt" seats.

The Prairies

Expect little change. The Conservatives should pass 50% of the popular vote in Saskatchewan though. If Ralph Goodale retires, Liberals will be shut out of Saskatchewan (not sure if that falls to the NDP or Conservatives though). The NDP should more or less hold what they have.

British Columbia

I expect it again to be the NDP's best province. The NDP could make gains in Surrey with Singh leading them and maybe some other Lower Mainland seats like Burnaby North-Seymour, but could lose their weakest Interior seat to the Conservatives. Liberals are well positioned in some key Van seats with popular Cabinet ministers, and I expect them to hold their city of Vancouver and North Shore seats. The Conservatives could regain a few seats in ther outer Lower Mainland and Interior but I'm not seeing a big breakthrough. Elizabeth May will hold her seat.

[urbandreamer]

Minority PC gov't.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Docere

The Liberals will dominate again, but not win every single seat. The Tories will win at least some seats, at the very least their strongest NB ones. NDP likely to be shut out again, except for maybe in Halifax and St. John's if Megan Leslie and Jack Harris try to make comebacks.

He is not well-known nationally but Andy Fillmore, the current Liberal MP for Halifax, is well-known locally. His is not a case where he won only because he ran as a Liberal, and he beat Megan Leslie by just under 15 percentage points. He might have won even without the "anybody but the Conservatives" vote.

He's an urban planner (originally from the US) and arguably his skills haven't been used much in the current government.

[once]

Originally Posted by Spocket

"More Liberal, less Trudeau".

Can't help but think the path to another Liberal majority is for Trudeau to be replaced. I think most Canadians at this point could really get behind a "More Liberal, Less Trudeau" type message from the Liberal party, unfortunately that won't happen with Trudeau rehashing his messages in the debates, which I suspect many Canadians are already tired of an entire year before the election.

I certainly think the Ontario Liberals had a fighting chance if Wynne only had the common sense to step aside much earlier and allow a fresh voice to drive the election. I think we'll see a similar dynamic in the Federal election.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by once

I certainly think the Ontario Liberals had a fighting chance if Wynne only had the common sense to step aside much earlier and allow a fresh voice to drive the election. I think we'll see a similar dynamic in the Federal election.

I think people severely overestimate the negative effect of Trudeau's talking points. They certainly are not in the ballpark of the Ontario Liberals' two decades of mismanagement.

Any negative effects of Trudeau's leftist comments/actions will only be as damaging as Scheer can make them. Given how he's performed so far, it's somewhere between "not at all" and "it actually makes Scheer look incompetent".

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by once

Can't help but think the path to another Liberal majority is for Trudeau to be replaced. I think most Canadians at this point could really get behind a "More Liberal, Less Trudeau" type message from the Liberal party, unfortunately that won't happen with Trudeau rehashing his messages in the debates, which I suspect many Canadians are already tired of an entire year before the election.

I certainly think the Ontario Liberals had a fighting chance if Wynne only had the common sense to step aside much earlier and allow a fresh voice to drive the election. I think we'll see a similar dynamic in the Federal election.

Barring a complete rout next year, Trudeau will be around until at least 2023.

[flar]

Right now I'm thinking Liberal minority, with NDP dropping to almost nothing. It's definitely not a lock for Trudeau.

[GernB]

It'll be a minority government. Whether it's Conservative or Liberal will depend on which of Trudeau or Scheer can keep his foot out of his mouth more than the other. If it's a Liberal minority, Scheer will likely get another chance from his party. If it's a Conservative minority, Justin will either be pushed out or will suddenly find a new toy to play with.

[Docere]

[deleted - this post was wrong]

[whatnext]

Originally Posted by Docere

Joe Clark is the only PM in recent history to not get re-elected. And he hardly got in on a wave of excitement - he only got a minority government and the Liberals under PET actually won the popular vote in 1979.

Huh? You forgot Harper and Martin.

[EpicPonyTime]

Originally Posted by whatnext

Huh? You forgot Harper and Martin.

I think what he meant to say is that Clark was the only Prime Minister to not win at least two elections. Harper did, but Martin only won in 2004.

None of them can top Campbell, though. She got the short end of that stick.

[Docere]

That's what I get for posting so late. Yes, Martin as well. Harper doesn't count as he was re-elected in 2008 and 2011.

[Docere]

Re: Clark, I think what I meant is that a party doesn't usually get thrown out of office after only one term, the PCs in 1979-80 being an exception to the rule.

[Acajack]

Here is a crazy idea. Maxime Bernier founds a new party in September 2018 and gets elected PM of Canada in October 2019!

Just like Emmanuel Macron did in France. He founded a new party in April 2016 and in May 2017 he gets elected President.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Here is a crazy idea. Maxime Bernier founds a new party in September 2018 and gets elected PM of Canada in October 2019!

Just like Emmanuel Macron did in France. He founded a new party in April 2016 and in May 2017 he gets elected President.

That would be horrible.

The one thing the right has to do is stay united (no matter how divided and fractious they are). In a country like Canada, this is the only way that the right will ever occasionally get control of the levers of power...........

[Acajack]

Hey, you read it here first!

Editor's note: Acajack is now accepting offers for political advisor positions for the reasonable salary of 175k per annum.

[kwoldtimer]

Bernier should absolutely go off and found his libertarian vanity project. The Conservatives don't seem to be able to get rid of him, however. At the moment, he's become one of the Liberals' best assets!