Will the Migration from "Snowbelt" to "Sunbelt" Reverse in the U.S.?

[CaliNative]

Will climate change, water shortages, and high housing costs in the "sunbelt" states cause a reverse migration back to the northern and eastern "snow belt" states in the future? I wouldn't rule it out. Costs are totally insane out here in sunny California, and we are smack dab starting another drought. I myself (a native Californian) peruse housing costs enviously in places like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh.

[ocman]

Climate change and drought, no. Housing costs, yes. But I can’t imagine people wanting to move to the snowbelt over the South. Scorching temperatures don’t seem to have a big effect on the desirability of places. I think people tend to prefer the heat over the snow. Las Vegas and towns in Texas are always somewhere near the top of lists for places where people want to move to, no doubt the climate overcome by affordable housing prices.


Water security for populations and CA cities is an engineering issue. Shortage is an issue for the agricultural industry. Cities like LA need to find a way to use the billions of gallons of perfectly good water that it flushes out into the ocean, and reuse it. It’s potentially a self-sustaining system if we had the political will.

[Kenmore]

massive swaths of densely populated coastline are a lock to be underwater within a century, so of course

[pdxtex]

some folks are stopping halfway and settling in middle region cities. look at places like nashville, okc, and charlotte. you would be surprised how much more pleasant a winter 400 miles south of ann arbor is. for alot of folks, i think they are just seeking that little bit of an edge. portland is like that too. its not a sunbelt city but its about as mild as it gets for a northern place.

[RC14]

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by RC14

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

Just a quick clarification regarding LA and water... Most of Los Angeles, even the immediate coast, wouldnt be effected by rising sea levels. The elevation gains almost immediately after the beach other than a couple places like Venice beach and Marina Del Rey. We also have plenty of water but let it flush to the ocean during rains. The mountains surrounding LA receive plenty of rain and snow, its just that we have paved all the rivers so most of it drains. We are now reversing a lot of our mistakes, replenishing ground water reservoirs, the LA river and its tributaries and cutting down on wasteful water usage.

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by RC14

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

"Breaking Bad" was great publicity for ABQ. Greatest TV show ever. "Better Call Saul" almost as good.

[RC14]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

"Breaking Bad" was great publicity for ABQ. Greatest TV show ever. "Better Call Saul" almost as good.

Amen

[Kngkyle]

I see global warming as making the Great Lakes region much more desirable.

Droughts are impossible - unlimited cheap fresh water
No impact from rising sea levels
Milder winters
No exposure to hurricanes

Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc... I think they will all have a second coming as the boom towns of America.

Yes, there are engineering solutions to many of the problems coastal and dryer regions will face, but that will cost enormous sums of money and make the cost of living in those regions even more prohibitive.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I see global warming as making the Great Lakes region much more desirable.

Droughts are impossible - unlimited cheap fresh water
No impact from rising sea levels
Milder winters
No exposure to hurricanes

Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc... I think they will all have a second coming as the boom towns of America.

Yes, there are engineering solutions to many of the problems coastal and dryer regions will face, but that will cost enormous sums of money and make the cost of living in those regions even more prohibitive.

+1 along with infrastructure costs hitting cities more in states like Texas, Cali and Florida as they get more and more people and have old city problems. Nothing lasts forever. If companies start coming back to the "rustbelt" due to lowered comparable costs so will people as everyone follows the jobs.

[AviationGuy]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I see global warming as making the Great Lakes region much more desirable.

Droughts are impossible - unlimited cheap fresh water
No impact from rising sea levels
Milder winters
No exposure to hurricanes

Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc... I think they will all have a second coming as the boom towns of America.

Yes, there are engineering solutions to many of the problems coastal and dryer regions will face, but that will cost enormous sums of money and make the cost of living in those regions even more prohibitive.

If Chicago became much milder, it would be my first choice in moving north. But that won't happen in my lifetime or most of ours.

[Docta_Love]

Originally Posted by AviationGuy

If Chicago became much milder, it would be my first choice in moving north. But that won't happen in my lifetime or most of ours.

What most people don't know about the Great Lakes Region especially the central and eastern parts is that they create their own micro climate not just with the snowbelts which tend to be the areas downwind of the eastern and southern shores of the Great Lakes.

There was a study done a few years ago that updated the US climate zone designations around the Great Lakes area to reflect the fact that they create a moderating effect on the weather and their own micro climates. Another example of the micro climate positive of the Great Lakes region is during the spring season aka tornado season the still cold waters of the lakes moderate and stabilize warm most air coming from the Gulf of Mexico.

Once again its the central and eastern lakes areas that see the most pronounced effects and the area is considered to be the "safest" in the country from natural disasters. Of course if conditions are just right i.e. a wind with a direct southerly fetch this point can be moot in the 50's the northern burbs of Flint were hit by a very deadly F-5 but this seems to be the exception not the rule. Great Lakes cities are outside of Tornado Ally and "Hosier Ally" while most tornadoes are generally brief and weak there are always exceptions.

But the effect I want to mention is that in Metro Detroit specifically there is an area of climate zone 6b which on its northern end extends west from Anchor Bay on Lake St. Clair over to Utica then the western border of this micro zone extends southwest down into Ferndale then continues southward again through the inner westside of the city down through Southwest ending about at Zug Isle.

Windsor Ontario is situated on its own peninsula "sandwiched" so to speak between Lakes Erie and St. Clair it's also a climate zone 6b, on the palm trees of Canada thread this subject was touched on Magnolia Trees are Grown in Windsor.

The West Coast of Michigan also gets a strong marine influence so much so that almost the entire coast is a climate zone 6b as well. There is a small gap from Ludington to Manistee where the climate zone is rated a colder 6a. This is because of a narrowing of Lake Michigan in this area providing slightly less marine influence during the winter time. But with the lake becoming wider again the after Manistee the Coast west of Traverse City is also a 6b Climate zone which is prolly one of the reasons why the area so such rich orchards and vineyards.

BTW the climate zone rating designations are derived by the coldest average winter night time lows for the area. For reference D.C. and most of Virginia except the highlands and the extreme southeast are climate zone 6b, northern Texas, Okalahoma and N.W. New Mexico are also the same climate zone as the central and eastern areas of the Detroit Metro.



https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...inessZones.svg


http://planthardiness.ars.usda.gov/PHZMWeb/

[the urban politician]

I don't think we can predict anything.

Rome went from a million to a few thousand in just a few years. Then it rebounded and, millennia later, is one of the world's great cities.

I don't know why cold weather punishes American cities so much more than cities elsewhere in the world, but world history suggests that colder weather really is not a significant factor in a city's success.

So we should just stop making predictions, IMO.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I don't think we can predict anything.

Rome went from a million to a few thousand in just a few years. Then it rebounded and, millennia later, is one of the world's great cities.

I don't know why cold weather punishes American cities so much more than cities elsewhere in the world, but world history suggests that colder weather really is not a significant factor in a city's success.

So we should just stop making predictions, IMO.

Actually Rome was shattered for a millennium before it recovered. For over 1,000 years Rome had a population of less than 100,000. When Napoleon invaded in 1798 the population is though to be closer to 50,000. Rome is the worst example of "it's ok, it's all alright in the long run" because the city was in ruins for centuries before recovering to where it is today.

[pj3000]

Emerging viruses/tropical diseases will likely push people north before rising sea levels, drought do.

The "invisible" effects of climate change are the scariest.

[the urban politician]

The nice thing about our winters is that every year we sterilize our environment.

There is something protective about a complete freeze happening cyclically.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The nice thing about our winters is that every year we sterilize our environment.

There is something protective about a complete freeze happening cyclically.

Most importantly the cold kills termites and drives away whiney snowbirds. Frankly anyone who would choose where they live based on climate I don't want living in my city. It's a stupid reason to live somewhere.

[Centropolis]

i say this all the time, but the i think the growth, at least in the west, will be in the northern interior west. you know, boise, and others.

[skyscraperpage17]

The one-time mass migration to the Snowbelt was an anomaly, mainly because of the automobile and the collapse of the confederacy following the civil war. People put up with the harsh weather up north mainly to feed their families.

Before then, Most of the country's population was in the Sunbelt region and also along the east coast.

With manufacturing going the way of the dodo bird (in terms of creating a ton of good-paying jobs) and air conditioning having now become standard, people are going back to their roots (so to speak) and settling down south again. The land is cheap and the infrastructure is all relatively new.

https://newsinteractive.post-gazette...eat-migration/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rsal/21818127/

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/...s_to_flee.html

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...sus-data-show/

[Chef]

Originally Posted by skyscraperpage17

The one-time mass migration to the Snowbelt was an anomaly, mainly because of the automobile and the collapse of the confederacy following the civil war. People put up with the harsh weather up north mainly to feed their families.

Before then, Most of the country's population was in the Sunbelt region and also along the east coast.

With manufacturing going the way of the dodo bird (in terms of creating a ton of good-paying jobs) and air conditioning having now become standard, people are going back to their roots (so to speak) and settling down south again. The land is cheap and the infrastructure is all relatively new.

If this is true, then why is Minneapolis (the coldest major metro in the US) one of the fastest growing cities in the northeastern quarter of the country? It is growing faster than places like Memphis, Richmond, Honolulu or Tuscon. I think people move where the jobs are.