Canada's Next Major Metropolitan Areas?

[saffronleaf]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Perspective from the east

Given the title of this thread, obviously the only candidate for a new "major" metropolitan area is Halifax, but I thought I would give my predictions for Atlantic Canadian cities in general:

HALIFAX (2017 CMA population estimate 431,701).

The city of Halifax is the Atlantic Canadian champion for urban growth, and really the only economic engine for the province of NS. It has the highest brand recognition elsewhere in the country and an impressive educational infrastructure, as well as a major port, the east coast naval establishment and many regional head offices. At present the city is growing by more than 5,000 per year, and I don't think this will change. This could even accelerate if more immigrants choose Halifax to live. In addition, large parts of eastern Hants County will likely be incorporated into the Halifax CMA in the near future (based on commuting patterns). As such, my population prediction for Halifax in 2030 is ~ 520,000

ST. JOHN's (2017 CMA population estimate 219,200)

Capital and only real growth centre in Newfoundland. A really nice city, but growth prospects limited by isolation, with most migrants coming from elsewhere in the province. This well of people will eventually dry up and unless the city can find new domestic and/or international streams of immigration, growth potential will be more limited than it's regional rival (Halifax). At present, the city is growing by about 2,500/yr but I think this might taper off somewhat in the future. I think the CMA boundaries are stable. As such, my 2030 population prediction for St. John's is ~ 245,000

MONCTON (2017 CMA population estimate 152,169)

Located in the geographic centre of the region, Moncton has natural advantages in distribution, transportation and commercial activities. There are also surprising strengths in health care, education, banking and insurance. Moncton is also the "Capitale d'Acadie" and the default urban centre for francophone NB. Because of this Moncton will continue to do well in terms of growth. At present, the city is growing by about 2,000/yr and this growth rate has been pretty stable over the last 15 years or so. The CMA boundaries will likely grow to include Shediac/Cap Pele/Cocagne very soon. As such, my population prediction for Moncton in 2030 is ~ 188,000

SAINT JOHN (2017 CMA population estimate 128,541)

Everyone roots for Saint John. The city has an impressive built form in it's core and a tremendous sense of history and place, but it's been difficult for the city to shake it's heavy industry persona and reputation. The city hasn't grown much in the last 40 years, and it's regional reach doesn't extend much beyond the Fundy coast of NB. These factors will limit future growth unless the city can reinvent it's image. The CMA boundaries for Saint John should remain stable. As such, my population prediction for Saint John in 2030 is ~ 135,000

FREDERICTON - not currently a CMA, but should become one in either 2021 or 2026. The CA has a current population of about 105,000.

Fredericton has the advantages of having two universities, the provincial government, and Canada's largest army base in suburban Oromocto. There is a growing IT sector in the city. Growth has been steady and should continue into the future. As such, my prediction for the (eventual) Fredericton CMA population in 2030 will be ~ 125,000

Thanks for this, it's a thorough and well thought out response from the Atlantic Canada side of things.

In the Maritimes, I see a lot of potential for Halifax and Moncton. In terms of Halifax, having an major metropolitan area on the Atlantic coast is going to be great for Canada as a whole. And Moncton is the hub city for the Maritimes.

Any thoughts on PEI? Given the size of the island it could basically be a metropolitan area of its own. Seems like they're being more aggressive with attracting immigrants, too.