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  #1  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2023, 9:05 PM
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Canada's Q3 2023 Population Growth

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  #2  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2023, 10:11 PM
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  #3  
Old Posted Sep 27, 2023, 10:20 PM
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This article says that Canada's population could double in 25 years if the trend hold.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...&ei=10#image=1
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Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 4:40 AM
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Originally Posted by DCReid View Post
This article says that Canada's population could double in 25 years if the trend hold.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/comp...&ei=10#image=1
Wow, that'd be a lot in such a short period of time!
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  #5  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 7:07 AM
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Wild how little PEI has more people than Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut put together. It has always seemed to me though that PEI should just be a part of New Brunswick or something... but I suppose you could make the same argument about any small state/province.
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  #6  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 12:30 PM
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Here's AU for comparison (albeit March 31 y/y).



via: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/pe...ation/mar-2023

Fun fact: Canada + Australia = ~United Kingdom now.
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  #7  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 1:36 PM
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Originally Posted by BnaBreaker View Post
Wild how little PEI has more people than Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut put together. It has always seemed to me though that PEI should just be a part of New Brunswick or something... but I suppose you could make the same argument about any small state/province.
PEI always reminded me of Rhode Island or Delaware - a little state which really probably shouldn't be on its own, but for historical reasons, is.

The real storey here is how insanely quickly Ontario is growing. Ontario, with half the population of Texas, grew by roughly the same amount last year. So double the effective growth rate.

At the current rate, Ontario would pass New York State in about 8 years. Which is just nuts. I don't think that will actually happen.. but still.

It also continues to blow me away that the Maritimes are suddenly posting some of the highest growth rates in the country. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were struggling to keep their populations from declining for decades, then suddenly, boom, population explosion. For the best to be honest, NB and Nova Scotia have a ton of overbuilt infrastructure that is easily able to absorb population growth.

Ontario is really buckling under the population growth right now. The highways are congested at insane levels, the transit network overloaded, etc.. all the while the Province can't seem to build the new infrastructure fast enough.
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  #8  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 1:58 PM
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Fun fact: Canada + Australia = ~United Kingdom now.
With only 80x the land area!
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  #9  
Old Posted Sep 28, 2023, 7:55 PM
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It also continues to blow me away that the Maritimes are suddenly posting some of the highest growth rates in the country. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were struggling to keep their populations from declining for decades, then suddenly, boom, population explosion. For the best to be honest, NB and Nova Scotia have a ton of overbuilt infrastructure that is easily able to absorb population growth.
The maritimes have a ton of potential.. In wealthy postindustrial societies like Canada, US, etc, aesthetics hold a lot of sway over where people choose to live.. and the maritimes are beautiful

The forces that built Cleveland and Detroit (land suitable for large factories, proximity to water transport, relative proximity to enormous iron ore deposits, etc) are not the same forces that built Denver or Phoenix or Salt Lake City.

If I were Canadian and a freelance web developer or something I would totally move to St. Johns just for the fuck of it.

I see the maritimes becoming trendy soon (if they arent already)
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  #10  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 2:07 AM
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I thought Canadians didn't want their population increasing .
Am cornfused.
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  #11  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 2:23 AM
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In Canada everything is cool until November comes, then it's Canada cold.

The hottest month in Montreal (avg.max temp of 27°C) is warmer than the hottest month in Melbourne, but the coldest month (avg.min temp of -13,3°C) is also colder than the coldest month in Moscow.
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  #12  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 2:39 AM
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The current population is 40.35 million according to the Canada Population Clock which records population in real time.

According to several banks and many demographers, StatsCan is underestimating the population by 1.2 to 1.4 million due to many temporary residents who were to leave the country between 2000 & 2002 were allowed to stay due to COVID but few have left and now basically are permanent residents.

Thing is that neither Trudeau nor any of the opposition parties are planning any declines in immigration, permanent or not so Canada's population growth could very well maintain this level for a long time regardless of the fact that we are in a dire housing crisis. By 2050, if the trend continues, Canada will be at roughly 85 million and Greater Toronto over 16 million.
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  #13  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 2:50 AM
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Quebec was supposed to reach 9 million in 2030. The province is expected to end 2024 well above 9 million, so 6 years faster than the projections. If the crazy growth continues, 10 million in 2030 is not impossible.
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  #14  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 3:20 AM
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Yukon passed Northwest Territories by 3 people!

It's crazy to me how a little state like mine, Delaware, is about the same population as Nova Scotia, although Nova Scotia has always been ahead of Delaware. But in the 1800s, Delaware was about 25-50% more than Prince Edward Island. If Delaware had the same trend as PEI, it would have a population of 200,000 or 225,000. More recently, Delaware had about the same population as New Brunswick in the 1990s: New Brunswick had more people in 1990, but Delaware had more people in 2000.

Delaware should pass Nova Scotia by the 2030 census.

Will Nova Scotia pass Sasksatchewan? When?
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  #15  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 3:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tayser View Post
Here's AU for comparison (albeit March 31 y/y).



via: https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/pe...ation/mar-2023

Fun fact: Canada + Australia = ~United Kingdom now.
If Canada and Australia can maintain these high growth rates over the medium term, it would be a game changer for both countries. We've never had enough demographic (or economic) scale to project internationally. In the West, that's largely been the purview of the United States .... and to a lesser extent the United Kingdom.

By mid-century, Canada could find itself larger than France/UK and pulling even with Germany. Australia seems to be following a similar trajectory but from a smaller base: 40.1 million vs 26.5 million.

25+ year forecasts are a little silly (so much can change) but it's plausible and interesting to contemplate. If things did evolve like this, the Western alliance could find itself significantly bolstered. With the rise of China, India, and SE Asia, that's not a bad thing.
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  #16  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 4:30 AM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post

Thing is that neither Trudeau nor any of the opposition parties are planning any declines in immigration, permanent or not so Canada's population growth could very well maintain this level for a long time .....
That's the kicker right there. As stunning as these numbers are, it probably won't trend down over the short to medium term. For that reason (but mostly for fun), I will do a 8 year and 18 year extrapolation to the 2031 Census and 2041 Census. As one can see, things can snowball very quickly if rates stay the same even over a relatively short period of time (8 or 18 years). The 18 year extrapolation is admittedly pie in the sky as absolute growth would have to keep going up each year but the 8 year extrapolation is somewhat plausible. Could we be crossing 50 million in just 8 years?


2031 Census?

Ontario: 19,822,628
Quebec: 10,649,620
British Columbia: 7,009,147
Alberta: 6,479,500
Manitoba: 1,833,177
Saskatchewan: 1,487,202
Nova Scotia: 1,365,715
New Brunswick: 1,068,404
Newfoundland & Labrador: 597,852
Prince Edward Island: 236,350
Yukon: 54,420
Northwest Territories: 47,221
Nunavut: 42,300

CANADA: 50,523,179



2041 Census?

Ontario: 26,846,395
Quebec: 13,489,518
Alberta: 9,672,297
British Columbia: 9,437,512
Manitoba: 2,444,235
Saskatchewan: 1,922,480
Nova Scotia: 1,884,475
New Brunswick: 1,444,015
Newfoundland & Labrador: 684,028
Prince Edward Island: 349,312
Yukon: 69,262
Northwest Territories: 50,369
Nunavut: 44,334

CANADA: 68,166,194
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Last edited by isaidso; Sep 29, 2023 at 5:06 AM.
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  #17  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 4:47 AM
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Originally Posted by xzmattzx View Post
Yukon passed Northwest Territories by 3 people!

It's crazy to me how a little state like mine, Delaware, is about the same population as Nova Scotia, although Nova Scotia has always been ahead of Delaware. But in the 1800s, Delaware was about 25-50% more than Prince Edward Island. If Delaware had the same trend as PEI, it would have a population of 200,000 or 225,000. More recently, Delaware had about the same population as New Brunswick in the 1990s: New Brunswick had more people in 1990, but Delaware had more people in 2000.

Delaware should pass Nova Scotia by the 2030 census.

Will Nova Scotia pass Sasksatchewan? When?
During the wildfires in and around Yellowknife, the Northwest Territories would have been below both Yukon and Nunavut as 10,000+ people evacuated south. I suspect Yukon will remain the most populated territory for a long time.

Delaware (6,450 sq km) is very similar in area to Prince Edward Island (5,660 sq km). Goes to show how densely populated Delaware is. If Prince Edward Island was as densely populated as Delaware it would have 893,622 people.
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  #18  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 5:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Thing is that neither Trudeau nor any of the opposition parties are planning any declines in immigration, permanent or not so Canada's population growth could very well maintain this level for a long time regardless of the fact that we are in a dire housing crisis. By 2050, if the trend continues, Canada will be at roughly 85 million and Greater Toronto over 16 million.
There it is.
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  #19  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xzmattzx View Post
Yukon passed Northwest Territories by 3 people!

It's crazy to me how a little state like mine, Delaware, is about the same population as Nova Scotia, although Nova Scotia has always been ahead of Delaware. But in the 1800s, Delaware was about 25-50% more than Prince Edward Island. If Delaware had the same trend as PEI, it would have a population of 200,000 or 225,000. More recently, Delaware had about the same population as New Brunswick in the 1990s: New Brunswick had more people in 1990, but Delaware had more people in 2000.

Delaware should pass Nova Scotia by the 2030 census.

Will Nova Scotia pass Sasksatchewan? When?
Delaware probably will not pass Nova Scotia by 2030 given the trends. Delaware grew about 3% in about 2-3 years from 2020-22, with much of the growth due to a spurt from Covid. Nova Scotia just grew by over 3% in one year. In fact, Delaware had already passed Nova Scotia by 2020 per Wiki (around 989K for Delaware vs around 969K for NS, but now NS pulled ahead by 2022 at 1.022 million versus 1.018 million for Delaware by mid/late 2022. So Delaware my fall behind as it is growing about 1-1.5% per year but NS may be growing at least 2-3% per year if trends hold. But of course, the growth spurt for Canada and NS holding may be a big IF (given the high housing costs) and Delaware may continue to steadily grow 1% or more since it has a favorable tax rate and weather (and political climate) especially for many Northeast retirees that don't want to move to the south. So Delaware may catch NS again by 2040.
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  #20  
Old Posted Sep 29, 2023, 1:05 PM
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Originally Posted by isaidso View Post
That's the kicker right there. As stunning as these numbers are, it probably won't trend down over the short to medium term. For that reason (but mostly for fun), I will do a 8 year and 18 year extrapolation to the 2031 Census and 2041 Census. As one can see, things can snowball very quickly if rates stay the same even over a relatively short period of time (8 or 18 years). The 18 year extrapolation is admittedly pie in the sky as absolute growth would have to keep going up each year but the 8 year extrapolation is somewhat plausible. Could we be crossing 50 million in just 8 years?


2031 Census?

Ontario: 19,822,628
Quebec: 10,649,620
British Columbia: 7,009,147
Alberta: 6,479,500
Manitoba: 1,833,177
Saskatchewan: 1,487,202
Nova Scotia: 1,365,715
New Brunswick: 1,068,404
Newfoundland & Labrador: 597,852
Prince Edward Island: 236,350
Yukon: 54,420
Northwest Territories: 47,221
Nunavut: 42,300

CANADA: 50,523,179



2041 Census?

Ontario: 26,846,395
Quebec: 13,489,518
Alberta: 9,672,297
British Columbia: 9,437,512
Manitoba: 2,444,235
Saskatchewan: 1,922,480
Nova Scotia: 1,884,475
New Brunswick: 1,444,015
Newfoundland & Labrador: 684,028
Prince Edward Island: 349,312
Yukon: 69,262
Northwest Territories: 50,369
Nunavut: 44,334

CANADA: 68,166,194
That is some Nigerian-level growth. Won't come to pass, as the backlash is growing so fast....
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