Queen's Park Politics

[Loco101]

I'm all for tolls on the Gardiner and DVP as long as there is an option to park somewhere outside the downtown area for free and be able to take a frequent and quick train/subway into the downtown.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by manny_santos

That double double is discretionary spending; transportation to get to a place of employment is not discretionary spending. While it can be argued that the person who makes less money could use public transit, that's not always practical in Toronto. There are many cases in Toronto where driving is significantly faster than public transit. My company's office is moving to a new location in January closer to where I live; it will take 20 minutes to drive there versus an hour on the TTC. If it weren't for the cost of parking downtown, I'd drive to work daily at the new location, almost the whole way there on the DVP.

I am completely against tolls on the DVP and Gardiner. Former PC leader Tim Hudak had proposed uploading both expressways to the provincial highway system if he was elected in 2014, and I think that's what needs to happen (even if there was an arrangement where the City of Toronto chipped in, say, 10% of the operational costs). Expressways in some other Canadian cities are owned by the province (notably the Autoroutes in Quebec City and Montreal, the TCH where it enters Vancouver, and even the 417 in Ottawa), and I don't see any reason why the province can't take on the two highways that enter the core from outside the city. After all, the province already owns the rail corridors entering Downtown Toronto from outside the city.

I do think that tolls will drive traffic onto adjacent routes and create new levels of congestion. Highway 7 nowadays has horrific traffic levels across parts of the top of Toronto, and if it weren't for the tolls on the 407, I can bet Highway 7 would have less traffic and even the 401 through Toronto would be better off (fewer trucks for sure). I regularly drive on Don Mills Road and I don't want to know how bad traffic will get there once the DVP has tolls.

Totally agree.

The poor person making minimum doesn't have to buy the double double. They can avoid that. They can make coffee at home. They can simply not drink coffee. Transportation is a necessity. One must (at least most of us) get somewhere to work. This is not a choice. It's very easy for someone from Thunder Bay to look at Toronto and say, just take transit. For me to get to my work place from where I live, would take over an hour, and involve 3 transfers, and two different Transit authorities. I drive there in 20 minutes. Transit would cost about 14 dollars per day for me, so roughly 300$ a month. I do not pay that much in gas & insurance in a month.

I think Torontonian's of all stripes would support the Ontario Government uploading the Gardiner and DVP back to the province. Of course, all the funding for maintaining both would be taken away, and essentially it would mean the Province has the decision making power when it comes to these important highways.

[sonysnob]

Really detailed article from the Globe about Ontario Hydro rates, comparing to both other Canadian jurisdictions and those internationally as well:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/...4-faeb572deddf

Seems appropriate here, seeing as hydro is probably the biggest election issue coming in the next provincial election.

[vid]

Originally Posted by toaster

Transit would cost about 14 dollars per day for me, so roughly 300$ a month. I do not pay that much in gas & insurance in a month.

Bus passes cost significantly less and are tax deductible.

[sonysnob]

Originally Posted by vid

Bus passes cost significantly less and are tax deductible.

That's only true if you have to use only one transit system as part of your commute. If, for example, someone had to use both Go Transit and the TTC, the cost per moth could easily reach $300 per month.

[eternallyme]

The big thing about the Liberals: I see virtually no pickup opportunities from the opposition, with the possible exception of the two remaining Toronto NDP seats, unless something catastrophic happens to one or both of the opposition parties.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

The big thing about the Liberals: I see virtually no pickup opportunities from the opposition, with the possible exception of the two remaining Toronto NDP seats, unless something catastrophic happens to one or both of the opposition parties.

Pretty much. They're fairly maxed out in the province at the moment. Although with redistribution, their 2014 result would be a fairly comfortable majority if replicated.

[vid]

Originally Posted by sonysnob

That's only true if you have to use only one transit system as part of your commute. If, for example, someone had to use both Go Transit and the TTC, the cost per moth could easily reach $300 per month.

Maybe they can use some of the revenue from the tolls to unify the shit show that is the Golden Horseshoe's transit systems.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

Pretty much. They're fairly maxed out in the province at the moment. Although with redistribution, their 2014 result would be a fairly comfortable majority if replicated.

Most likely about 70 to 75 seats is their ceiling if they completely dominate the big cities.

There will be a by-election in Sault Ste. Marie which might be a barometer on how northern Ontario will go. I'd say the NDP are most likely to win it, followed by the Liberals and then the PC's. But in each case, they will need to earn it. Open seat races in northern Ontario are almost always very interesting.

Liberals - they can win it if they try to hold the continuity message, although I have doubt that such will happen especially with hydro a big issue and the economy still sputtered there. Orazietti was quite popular so that insulated them in recent elections, but I doubt they can hold an open seat with no star candidate waiting in the wings.

NDP - I would consider them the strong favourites. They have a strong base in the Sault, although they haven't won federally or provincially in nearly a decade. Andrea Horwath plays a lot better here than Thomas Mulcair, but always ran up against a strong opponent. Who they find as a candidate is going to be important though, and they need to distance themselves greatly from extreme policies like the Leap Manifesto which don't play well here. Interventionist and anti-trade policies of the "traditional" NDP play very well here though as unions make up a very large percentage of the workforce.

PC's - Yes, the federal Conservatives won here in 2011 narrowly (due largely to the collapse of the Liberal vote and rural domination), but Patrick Brown's more urbane message doesn't play well here at all. A seat like this will not be won on free market policies or lower taxes alone. Seats like this are critical for someone like Kellie Leitch, but for all the talk of populism taking over, it probably isn't worth flip-flopping AGAIN for a by-election in traditional enemy territory. If they wanted to try that approach here, they may have a chance, but it would cost them much more later.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

Most likely about 70 to 75 seats is their ceiling if they completely dominate the big cities.

There will be a by-election in Sault Ste. Marie which might be a barometer on how northern Ontario will go. I'd say the NDP are most likely to win it, followed by the Liberals and then the PC's. But in each case, they will need to earn it. Open seat races in northern Ontario are almost always very interesting.

Liberals - they can win it if they try to hold the continuity message, although I have doubt that such will happen especially with hydro a big issue and the economy still sputtered there. Orazietti was quite popular so that insulated them in recent elections, but I doubt they can hold an open seat with no star candidate waiting in the wings.

NDP - I would consider them the strong favourites. They have a strong base in the Sault, although they haven't won federally or provincially in nearly a decade. Andrea Horwath plays a lot better here than Thomas Mulcair, but always ran up against a strong opponent. Who they find as a candidate is going to be important though, and they need to distance themselves greatly from extreme policies like the Leap Manifesto which don't play well here. Interventionist and anti-trade policies of the "traditional" NDP play very well here though as unions make up a very large percentage of the workforce.

PC's - Yes, the federal Conservatives won here in 2011 narrowly (due largely to the collapse of the Liberal vote and rural domination), but Patrick Brown's more urbane message doesn't play well here at all. A seat like this will not be won on free market policies or lower taxes alone. Seats like this are critical for someone like Kellie Leitch, but for all the talk of populism taking over, it probably isn't worth flip-flopping AGAIN for a by-election in traditional enemy territory. If they wanted to try that approach here, they may have a chance, but it would cost them much more later.

Most of my relatives live in Sault Ste. Marie.

It will really depend on who the candidates are. Right now without names, I'd give the edge to the Liberal candidate. It could be close with the NDP but again, who will the candidates be? The Sault is definitely not identical to most of Northern Ontario when it comes to voting. I also find that the Sault is less loyal to political parties and incumbents than elsewhere in the North. So it's not at all easy to predict at this point.

Obviously there wasn't much anger directed towards the Liberals in 2014. And I don't think there will be much more today. I haven't really felt the same sense of anger from Saultites that I've experienced elsewhere. The electoral district in entirely within city limits. Urban Northern Ontario traditionally votes Liberal while rural is NDP. So again, don't count out the Liberal candidate.

I wonder if Kathleen Wynne will be trying to get someone to run who she would make a cabinet minister. (remember Glenn Thibeault in Sudbury)

The PC candidate will be Ross Romano who is currently a city councillor.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Most of my relatives live in Sault Ste. Marie.

It will really depend on who the candidates are. Right now without names, I'd give the edge to the Liberal candidate. It could be close with the NDP but again, who will the candidates be? The Sault is definitely not identical to most of Northern Ontario when it comes to voting. I also find that the Sault is less loyal to political parties and incumbents than elsewhere in the North. So it's not at all easy to predict at this point.

Obviously there wasn't much anger directed towards the Liberals in 2014. And I don't think there will be much more today. I haven't really felt the same sense of anger from Saultites that I've experienced elsewhere. The electoral district in entirely within city limits. Urban Northern Ontario traditionally votes Liberal while rural is NDP. So again, don't count out the Liberal candidate.

I wonder if Kathleen Wynne will be trying to get someone to run who she would make a cabinet minister. (remember Glenn Thibeault in Sudbury)

The PC candidate will be Ross Romano who is currently a city councillor.

Does Wynne want another scandal like in Sudbury? Orazietti was personally very popular though, which would have insulated him - he probably could have won in 2018 even if the Liberals were shellacked province-wide. But in an open seat race, I have to wonder if the anger will come to fruition.

You're right, provincially it is entirely within city limits (federally, it previously included rural areas along 17E to about Bruce Mines, which were critical in 2011), so the PC's are pretty much dead in the water.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by vid

Bus passes cost significantly less and are tax deductible.

No. I live in Etobicoke and work in Mississauga. Considering how they are right beside each other, it is ridiculous how much (MiWay and TTC fare/passes are required) and how few connections there are between the two (unless you travel to Kipling first), to go such a short distance. It would take over an hour on transit. It takes me 15 minutes to drive.

[vid]

Maybe that should be a bigger election issue. If people are being forced to drive because public transit is too expensive (!!) something is wrong.

In Vancouver, $10 gets you access to all forms of transportation in the entire metropolitan area for a day.

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by toaster

No. I live in Etobicoke and work in Mississauga. Considering how they are right beside each other, it is ridiculous how much (MiWay and TTC fare/passes are required) and how few connections there are between the two (unless you travel to Kipling first), to go such a short distance. It would take over an hour on transit. It takes me 15 minutes to drive.

Metrolinx is trying to figure out a fare integration strategy to eliminate this problem but the TTC is being a roadblock, as usual.

[Doady]

No matter the fare integration, transit is always going to be unaffordable for all except the downtown elites. For the minimum wage worker in the suburbs, driving a car is the only realistic, affordable option.

[Docere]

Joe Oliver lost the nomination in York Centre:

http://ipolitics.ca/2017/01/15/forme...nation-battle/

[vid]

Originally Posted by Doady

No matter the fare integration, transit is always going to be unaffordable for all except the downtown elites. For the minimum wage worker in the suburbs, driving a car is the only realistic, affordable option.

This is such a bizarre statement. The average car owner spends around $500 a month on private vehicle ownership. I don't see many minimum wage workers affording that. But where I live, it's the poor who use public transit.

[ssiguy]

That includes car payments. if you already own a car even with insurance, gas, and upkeep it's still only $300/month. If you live in one suburb and commute to another where parking is free, it's just as cheap to drive than take GO and a transit pass.

Anyway, back to the election...........Wynne has so many scandals it's hard to keep track although she admittedly inherited quite a few from McGuinty like hydro, gas plant, and the UPX, to say nothing of the budget deficit. Even so, she is a Liberal and so many are rightfully thinking that it's time for a change.

She will have the advantage come election time of having a balanced budget which she campaigned on and the Ontario economy is doing fairly well with low unemployment, rising wages, a soon-to-be balanced budget, and she can brag that people from other parts of the country are moving to Ontario as opposed to leaving it. The NDP seems to be going no where fast and that could work to her advantage as many NDPers will vote strategically if it keep the Tories out of power. Just ask Trudeau, he'll tell you all about it.

The biggest concern for Wynne/Liberals is having a fellow Liberal government in Ottawa. Ontario has a near perfect record over the decades of voting in the opposite party governing in Ottawa.

Fed/prov since 60s..........
Pearson/Davis, Trudeau/Davis, Mulroney/Peterson, Mulroney/Rae, Chretien/Harris,
Harper/McGuinty, Harper/Wynne, Trudeau/?

[vid]

Liberals losing the next election would require a PC party that can win it, and we don't have that yet.

Polls indicate they're more popular, but I am willing to bet that those polls are just as accurate as all the others and that come voting day, people will hesitate to mark an X beside the PC candidates. Right wing PC members will just stay home because they only like crazy radicals who have no hope of forming government in the first place.

[ssiguy]

I think it will all depend on the NDP voters because if they see no hope of governance or even official opposition, they will vote strategically to keep the Tories from power.