Halifax Population & Growth

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by fenwick16

I think that he is doing a good job. Considering the bad reputation that HRM had for treating CAO's and keeping them, I think that a higher salary was necessary to get a suitable person for the job.

Where did you get the salary numbers - was it from the published municipal budgets?

Audited financial statements.
All municipalities must report earnings of the CAO and all members of council,the mayor is a member of council.
My post was based on the information from HRM documents and available on their website.


http://www.halifax.ca/boardscom/SCfi...618afsc911.pdf

All Financial Statements from 1999/2000 to the present are available here :

http://www.halifax.ca/finance/

Note that the method of presentation is not consistent for all prior years. earlier statements were not consolidated and now they are.
More detail is available by cross referencing the Financial Statements with the budget documents and for the past few years the budget documents have greater detail than previous years thanks to the persistence of former councillor Sue Uteck who kept asking for more detailed documents and eventually Tim Outhit joined in with her and won the day.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Waye Mason

This is not really correct, is it. The general rate surplus or deficit is not the operating surplus or deficit. The municipality has other revenue in addition to the rate, including parking, ticket, encroachment fee, application fee, deed transfer tax. The municipality did spend abut 6 million less than it budgeted.

It is correct to say there was a general rate deficit. It is not correct to say there is an operating deficit.

If a voter asks you ' What was the HRM surplus or deficit for each of the past 5 years ? ' what would you say ?
Which documents would you refer them to and which page would you tell them to read ?


On page C31 of the HRM 2014/15 Operating Budget staff made a projection for 2013/2014 which showed :
Revenues : $820,754,408
Expenditures : $811,549,608
Net Surplus : $9,204,800

http://www.halifax.ca/budget/documen...get2014-15.pdf

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

This is just symptomatic of HRM's ballooning staffing numbers and them spending like drunken sailors.

I wouldn't agree with that - the Planning department desperately could use some additional resources. Considering they had to shelve pretty much every policy planning exercise they were doing to get the Regional Plan updates done - there has been little to no work done on the Regional Centre Plan; one of the most key planning pieces in ages.

Added to that, there was visioning being done for Fairview (the Dutch Village Commercial Corridor) and a number of other areas that would have led to opening up those areas to further development (quite likely through a similar HBD type process I would assume) - those could have easily helped the growth #'s for the city.

I'm not sure where they are bulking up staffing numbers - it certainly isn't in the policy planning section. I know they hired a couple new Major Projects planners (one is an old friend of mine) and a couple new managers in the Development section, but one of them no longer works there.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by halifaxboyns

I wouldn't agree with that - the Planning department desperately could use some additional resources. Considering they had to shelve pretty much every policy planning exercise they were doing to get the Regional Plan updates done - there has been little to no work done on the Regional Centre Plan; one of the most key planning pieces in ages.

Added to that, there was visioning being done for Fairview (the Dutch Village Commercial Corridor) and a number of other areas that would have led to opening up those areas to further development (quite likely through a similar HBD type process I would assume) - those could have easily helped the growth #'s for the city.

I'm not sure where they are bulking up staffing numbers - it certainly isn't in the policy planning section. I know they hired a couple new Major Projects planners (one is an old friend of mine) and a couple new managers in the Development section, but one of them no longer works there.

Maybe they shouldn't be doing all these planning exercises, at least not in the way they do them. They take forever and seem to satisfy nobody.

[halifaxboyns]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Maybe they shouldn't be doing all these planning exercises, at least not in the way they do them. They take forever and seem to satisfy nobody.

I think there are two schools of thought on how to do these exercises. One is the way HRM and many cities are doing them - individually; which is very resource intensive and sets you up to have one document to maintain per visioning (usually a policy document of some kind).

What some bigger cities (like us in Calgary) are doing is moving towards a corridor based approach - selecting and working on all of the major corridors in the region thus creating a one size fits all approach. There are risks with either or, both are resource intensive but the second option has the benefit of opening up much great amount of areas to redevelopment/intensification.

[Keith P.]

This is a good example of the kind of non-productive planning bureaucracy that I'm critical of:

http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/bus...ng-in-the-zone

When developers complain about the amount of time it takes to get permission to build or redevelop a building in Halifax, the usual response is to point out that it would take even longer to get the same permission in Toronto or Vancouver.

Emodi believes changes need to be made to improve the planning department in Halifax.

Any construction project under a certain value, he says, should be handled by an experienced development officer or planner and not go through the same level of bureaucracy as larger projects.

And the need for a “lighter hand” on some development projects shouldn’t be restricted to residential projects, he says.

Teal has designed a small extension to 5466 Spring Garden Rd., for Westwood Developments Ltd., says Emodi.

There weren’t any storeys added to the structure, yet the owner was initially asked to have a survey done to measure the height of the building to ensure it did not infringe on viewplanes from Citadel Hill. Eventually, a letter from a surveyor stating the obvious was enough, but it is the type of bureaucracy that development faces in Halifax, he says.

Emodi says he believes simple changes to planning rules would relieve city staff from a lot of work they’re doing on smaller projects and allow them to concentrate on larger and more complicated development proposals.

[halifaxboyns]

I know Tom - good guy. I agree; one of the issues HRM has is that rather than create a new Land Use Bylaw for the whole area - they kept all the old ones, which were out of date already. So you have an outdated planning regulation system; held together with chewing gum and duck tape - that is trying to be cutting edge...not going to work. Calgary had the same problem - we were using a land use bylaw that dated back to 1980. We got rid of it in 2008 but even our new zoning bylaw isn't perfect and has hickups.

We have to start with the realization that no regulatory system for zoning is ever perfect and then design for what we want to see occur; ensuring that the policy we have in place supports that. Then when we have one off situations - the power to relax rules (variances) can be used. See here in Calgary; that's how our new zoning bylaw works and we have no issue with issuing variances on projects (although there are some exceptions). We just have to be prepared to justify them...

[Colin May]

On Wednesday morning the HRM Audit and Finance Committee will be looking at the reality of a slowing and near stagnant economy in Nova Scotia and HRM.

In a report : 9.1.4 Provincial-Municipal Fiscal Review – HRM Submission
see here : http://www.halifax.ca/boardscom/SCfi...Submission.pdf


" Currently, Halifax meets all the FCI thresholds and does not have any red-flagged indicators. Although it does face some financial pressures, Halifax is in a strong and stable fiscal position. One of its greatest challenges, however, rests in the financial health of the rest of the Province. Even though it is the largest and the most affluent of the 54 municipalities, it risks being dragged down by the weak economic and fiscal performance of other parts of the Province. It is in Halifax’s interest for other municipalities to strengthen their fiscal positions as well. Economic issues such as unemployment, labour market participation rates, and productivity contribute to overall social and economic outcomes. Increasingly youth from all over Nova Scotia are passing over Halifax and migrating west, as such depleting the provincial population and tax base and leading to slower growth in Halifax. Positioning Nova Scotia as an attractive place to live will help retain people and attract more jobs. This can best be done if Nova Scotia municipalities are viewed as sustainable and viable communities. Halifax cannot continue to grow at a fast pace if most other municipalities are steadily declining.
Population growth and retention is more important than ever before to Halifax. Between 2001 and 2013, net migration accounted for 2/3 of Halifax's population growth. However this growth is slowing, with Halifax’s population growing by only 0.4% from 2012 to 2013 while out migration to other parts of Canada spiked to its highest level in over a decade. This represents a break with recent trends. A population growth strategy for the city and province must focus on stemming the outflow of youth from the region and increasing the attraction and retention of immigrants. "

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Colin May

However this growth is slowing, withHalifax’s population growing by only 0.4% from 2012 to 2013 while out migration to other parts of Canada spiked to its highest level in over a decade. This represents a break with recent trends.

These annual population estimates are incredibly noisy (not just in terms of year-to-year variation but also in terms of error) and there's no particular reason to expect that the estimate from the last year or two represents a new norm for the city.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Colin May

"Halifax cannot continue to grow at a fast pace if most other municipalities are steadily declining."

To play devil's advocate, why not? Halifax's population growth is largely driven by interprovincial and international immigration, not intraprovincial.

I think the health of the rest of the province is extremely important, and there's a symbiotic relationship between the city and the rest of the province. But rural Nova Scotians aren't going to come to the city unless there's a labour market to support them, and the urbanized, largely white-collar employment found in Halifax isn't suited to the skills and qualifications of many rural Nova Scotians. Which is exactly why they're going out west.

I think the health of rural and small-town NS is important, and obviously at some point its decline has a negative impact on the city. But I also think the city can and should attempt to decouple itself somewhat from the economy of the rest of the province. Economic challenges aside, Halifax is a desirable place to live. Our greatest shot at continued success comes (I believe) in more actively pursuing people from across Canada and the world, not worrying that young people in Pictou are going to move to Alberta instead of to here.

Rural decline will probably keep going until the urban/rural ratio becomes more economically sustainable. The best thing we can do is support Halifax as a strong city, support the urbanization of smaller towns with potential to urbanize, and support any rural sectors that can still self-support: agriculture, tourism, etc.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by someone123

These annual population estimates are incredibly noisy (not just in terms of year-to-year variation but also in terms of error) and there's no particular reason to expect that the estimate from the last year or two represents a new norm for the city.

Indeed, and the most recent quarterly projections show an increase in population growth, closer to pre-2013 levels.

[someone123]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

I think the health of rural and small-town NS is important, and obviously at some point its decline has a negative impact on the city. But I also think the city can and should attempt to decouple itself somewhat from the economy of the rest of the province. Economic challenges aside, Halifax is a desirable place to live. Our greatest shot at continued success comes (I believe) in more actively pursuing those people, not worrying that young people in Pictou are going to move to Alberta instead of to here.

There's an unfortunate attitude in Atlantic Canada that economic development is a zero sum game, and so if one place is doing well that means it's at the expense of someplace else. I don't think this is very true of, say, the Halifax-Pictou dynamic, and actually I think a lot of nearby places do better when Halifax is doing well economically. Part of the confusion appears to stem from the fact that we're seeing the expansion of industries that tend to do better in urban settings while some old industries are dying off. These are global trends that, for better or worse, the province of NS is pretty powerless to change, and the causal link that people suppose isn't really there. Killing off economic growth in the city won't make the rural areas stronger.

Maritimers are also wrong about cities "swallowing up" all of the people. NS is still less urbanized than other provinces. It's over 40% rural, while many provinces are less than 20% rural. And actually because Sydney has been in decline, NS is just as rural today as it was in the 1950s (see 2011 and 1956): http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tabl...emo62d-eng.htm

Ontario reached the same level of urbanization back in 1920 or so. Actually I think the worldwide urbanization rate is getting up around 50%. The Maritimes are an outlier.

[Colin May]

If we cannot convince our children to stay here, mine are long gone from home (nearest in Ottawa) and if we cannot convince other young people in the province to come to Halifax, why and how can we convince immigrants to stay here ?
Many people come in through ISANS and in my experience they quickly depart for Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. And by 'quickly' I mean within 2 or 3 days of arrival in Halifax after waiting years to come to Canada. If they agree to come to Nova Scotia they get into Canada quicker than if they wanted to arrive in Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver.
The report I referred to was prepared by HRM staff.

[Drybrain]

Originally Posted by Colin May

If we cannot convince our children to stay here, mine are long gone from home (nearest in Ottawa) and if we cannot convince other young people in the province to come to Halifax, why and how can we convince immigrants to stay here ?
Many people come in through ISANS and in my experience they quickly depart for Toronto, Calgary and Vancouver. And by 'quickly' I mean within 2 or 3 days of arrival in Halifax after waiting years to come to Canada. If they agree to come to Nova Scotia they get into Canada quicker than if they wanted to arrive in Toronto, Calgary, Vancouver.
The report I referred to was prepared by HRM staff.

Because many of our own children don't have the skills relevant to the urban economy, unfortunately. And because we have a cultural expectation that leaving is necessary. I've never lived in a place where so many gainfully employed people with good career prospects are so negative about their outlook. Nor have I ever lived in a place where people are so ready, as they are here, to blame the province or the city for their personal corcumstances. It's really a cultural thing, and I think we do a disservice to ourselves by passing it in to newcomers. Some of the most successful people I know in Halifax are people from other parts of Canada, and honest to god, I swear part of it has to do with a less gloomy outlook.

Anyway, you ask "how can we expect newcomers to come and stay if we can't even get Nova Scotians to stay", but the thing is, out of province migration IS what's driven our growth for decades now, despite rural stagnation. And while we could do a better job of retaining immigrants, the retention rate today is far higher than it was 15 or 20 year ago. And immigrants in Halifax, as I've pointed out on the board before, actually have some of the highest incomes and best employment outcomes of immigrants anywhere in Canada--including Toronto and Vancouver. We have to advertise those facts, and make sure they continue to be true. I guarantee we drive newcomers away with our constant woe-is-us, the-land-that-opportunity-forgot rhetoric as well.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Colin May

"A population growth strategy for the city and province must focus on stemming the outflow of youth from the region and increasing the attraction and retention of immigrants. "

Great. HRM spends a bunch of money and hires consultants to develop yet another strategy for something it should not even be doing in the first place and will do poorly. This is yet another example of how HRM wastes tax dollars.

[Keith P.]

Originally Posted by Colin May

If we cannot convince our children to stay here, mine are long gone from home (nearest in Ottawa)

Maybe they just wanted some distance.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Drybrain

And immigrants in Halifax, as I've pointed out on the board before, actually have some of the highest incomes and best employment outcomes of immigrants anywhere in Canada--including Toronto and Vancouver. We have to advertise those facts, and make sure they continue to be true. I guarantee we drive newcomers away with our constant woe-is-us, the-land-that-opportunity-forgot rhetoric as well.

and in which industries are these immigrants employed and where is a detailed analysis of arrivals and departures ?
ISANS does not publish any information as to the numbers who have arrived in metro, last country, country of origin, retention in Nova Scotia, and departure to other provinces.
I have read the SMU study but that includes refugees, I usually make a distinction between refugees and immigrants.

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by Keith P.

Maybe they just wanted some distance.

One wanted mountains, another wanted to see what the world offered and one wanted a career in the arts.
Nova Scotia could not offer what they wanted.
And I had seen a lot of the world, no surprise that staying home wasn't on the list.
Nova Scotia can be a little too much of " Don't rock the boat. Go along to get along'
I blame the PCs - Presbyterians and Catholics.

[beyeas]

Originally Posted by Colin May

One wanted mountains...

etc etc

So to be clear, the fundamental issue facing municipal/provincial politics in terms of retainment of youth is a left wing bias against the building of larger mountains for fear that they would block view planes from citadel hill??



Doesn't some to me that any decision by your kids to leave was actually affected by the local economy or job market!

[Colin May]

Originally Posted by beyeas

etc etc

So to be clear, the fundamental issue facing municipal/provincial politics in terms of retainment of youth is a left wing bias against the building of larger mountains for fear that they would block view planes from citadel hill??



Doesn't some to me that any decision by your kids to leave was actually affected by the local economy or job market!

Read my comment again, slowly..........
I believe everyone should leave their home and see what is available elsewhere and then make an informed choice.
Try responding to my last two sentences.
Have you always lived here ?