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  #41  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 3:27 PM
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I find the numbers a bit surprising. BC does its own counts and estimates Vancouver at 2,404,911, roughly 100,000 people more than Statscan. I understand this is an inexact science but 100,000 people is hardly an insignificant number. What gives?

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/po...es_Current.pdf

Interesting to note there are now officially more people in Alberta + BC than in Quebec. No surprise there, its been a long time coming, but for the fist time it's official as last census Quebec still held an edge.
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  #42  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 3:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MolsonExport View Post
weak figures for London.

Okotoks? Okotoks? waiting for the "why Calgary is not ahead of Ottawa" arguments.
I guess you got tired of waiting, seeing as you're the one who brought it up.

Even without Okotoks, Calgary will be the fourth largest CMA, if it isn't already at this time. Despite Statscan estimates, etc... Ottawa will be 'officially' the fourth largest until the next census.

Last edited by Deepstar; Feb 8, 2012 at 3:47 PM.
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  #43  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 3:51 PM
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Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
I am assuming the census is more accurate then the estimates.
no, historically Ontario's undercount is 3.8% for example.

from the census is also this...
Please note that the most appropriate 2011 population figures for Canada, provinces and territories
are the current postcensal population estimates.
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  #44  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 3:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster View Post
I find the numbers a bit surprising. BC does its own counts and estimates Vancouver at 2,404,911, roughly 100,000 people more than Statscan. I understand this is an inexact science but 100,000 people is hardly an insignificant number. What gives?

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/po...es_Current.pdf

Interesting to note there are now officially more people in Alberta + BC than in Quebec. No surprise there, its been a long time coming, but for the fist time it's official as last census Quebec still held an edge.
The numbers are all gonna be lower than estimates. 100,000 its pretty high, but I think there are similar discrepancies elsewhere when municipalities use health card data to estimate population. I don't think it's a conspiracy against Vancouver.
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  #45  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 3:54 PM
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For those too lazy to do the math, here's the net numbers. In regards to the numbers being lower than expected, this was the case the last time the census came out, so I'm guessing this is normal?

Tor +470K
Mon +189K
Van +197K
Ott +103K
Cal + 135K
Edm +125K
Que +46K
Winn +36K
Ham +29K
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  #46  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonkeyRonin View Post
Census results are almost always lower than estimates. Which is more accurate? Who knows.
Quote:
Originally Posted by jigglysquishy View Post
There are some major discrepancies between the 2010 CMA estimates.

Basically every metro is lower than expected.
Calgary is no longer ahead of Ottawa
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
I am assuming the census is more accurate then the estimates.
This happens every census. Most people seem to take far greater stock in the initial census results than they should. In fact, the population estimates are considered to be the more accurate figures until the final coverage study is completed in September 2013. Statistics Canada explains it here:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/hp-pa/estima-eng.htm

Also, with regard to Lethbridge becoming a CMA, it would need to have an urban core population greater than 50000 as well. I don't know if it meets that requirement, but that may be why it is still a CA.
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  #47  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MonctonRad View Post
...

CBRM is dropping like a stone (-4.1% growth)
Yeah, that last recession was very poorly timed for CBRM especially. Just as it started recovering from the local recession (a recovery which straddled the '06 census), we get hit hard by the '08 recession. It's just now starting to climb out of that one, but the push for centralization is threatening to hurt the area again.
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  #48  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jeremy_haak View Post
This happens every census. Most people seem to take far greater stock in the initial census results than they should. In fact, the population estimates are considered to be the more accurate figures until the final coverage study is completed in September 2013. Statistics Canada explains it here:

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/hp-pa/estima-eng.htm

Also, with regard to Lethbridge becoming a CMA, it would need to have an urban core population greater than 50000 as well. I don't know if it meets that requirement, but that may be why it is still a CA.
Statscan changed the name of Urban Areas to Population Centres. The 2011 Population Centre figure for Lethbridge is 83,679. That is slightly higher than the city population. So yeah, it qualifies.
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  #49  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:38 PM
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What I find ridiculous about Calgary is they include Crossfield, Irricana & Beiseker...But not Okotoks. None of these towns have commuter service into Calgary and it takes me longer to get to all 3 of them than it does Okotoks.
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  #50  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:39 PM
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What I find amazing is that Edm/Cal grew by 135k and 125k respectively.
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  #51  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 4:57 PM
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The infighting between residents of Vancouver and Surrey over who will eventually be the biggest city in BC is definitely going to pick up again. Vancouver is listed at 603,502 with an increase of 25,461. Surrey, on the other hand, is listed at 468,251 with an increase of 73,275... almost three times the amount Vancouver grew by.
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  #52  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PoscStudent View Post
What happened to Halifax? Population is 390,328 up 4.7%, reports had it growing a lot faster and well over 400,000.
Census numbers always usual come in lower because not everyone fills out the census and also doesn't take into account transient population.
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  #53  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:11 PM
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Along with Windsor, I noticed a drop for Chatham-Kent. Greater Sudbury had very marginal growth, although some areas of Northern Ontario had very high growth rates - no doubt in part due to increasing mining prospects in parts of the north. Two of these areas include the Town of Schrieber and the "unorganized north part" of Cochrane District.

With regards to London, while the City of London grew by a modest 3.7%, the surrounding municipalities had higher growth rates, including St. Thomas. I was surprised about St. Thomas, because of the impact of the recession there, but I also know that there are people moving to St. Thomas who commute to London and other communities.
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  #54  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LeftCoaster View Post
I find the numbers a bit surprising. BC does its own counts and estimates Vancouver at 2,404,911, roughly 100,000 people more than Statscan. I understand this is an inexact science but 100,000 people is hardly an insignificant number. What gives?

http://www.bcstats.gov.bc.ca/data/po...es_Current.pdf
That is interesting that there is about a 50,000 difference between the StatsCan and BC Stats reports for Vancouver, and only 5,000 between the two for Surrey. The annual increase for Surrey is about the same for both, but Vancouver's has about a 3,000 difference.
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  #55  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:22 PM
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No surprise about our 1.3% drop...I'll take it, could've been worse (look at some of the U.S. metros nearby). Plus, I sense that Windsor has already hit rock bottom and is on its way back up. I'm more concerned about Chatham-Kent (at -4.4% that was the steepest drop in the country and there isn't much hope for an upswing there anytime soon).
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  #56  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
I wonder why deep rural Quebec areas are all going in over adjacent Ontario areas?
A large part of the metro is in Quebec (think Gatineau) and this probably reflects commuting from the rural area into Gatineau, and even to Ottawa to a lesser degree.

Gatineau's boundaries are big, and so more people commuting from say Bowman to Buckingham (part of Gatineau but on the far eastern edge) might qualify for its inclusion in the Ottawa-Gatineau CMA.
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  #57  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike474 View Post
The numbers are all gonna be lower than estimates. 100,000 its pretty high, but I think there are similar discrepancies elsewhere when municipalities use health card data to estimate population. I don't think it's a conspiracy against Vancouver.
Don't think I ever implied there was, just quite surprised the two numbers could be off by that much. The "what gives" was in hope that someone more knowledgeable in statscan's methodology could fill me in on how such a discrepancy could exist. For the most part my question has been answered, but I am still quite surprised that the gap is so large.
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  #58  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eternallyme View Post
Some other redrawing I would personally do:

* Shift Burlington from the Hamilton CMA to the Toronto CMA? That is debatable.
I don't think that's debatable at all. Burlington should be called "New Hamilton"
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  #59  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Deepstar View Post
For those too lazy to do the math, here's the net numbers. In regards to the numbers being lower than expected, this was the case the last time the census came out, so I'm guessing this is normal?
The first release usually doesn't correct for undercounting.
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  #60  
Old Posted Feb 8, 2012, 5:36 PM
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Fixed that for ya

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldrsx View Post
What I find amazing is that Cal/Edm grew by 135k and 125k respectively.
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