Predict the result of the 2019 federal election

[Loco101]

I'm not seeing enough desire for change and feel that the Trudeau Liberals will win again. The people making the biggest fuss about PMJT are ones who never supported him in the first place. Another big factor is a weaker NDP. The reality is that you don't have to be very popular to win a majority government. And even less so for a minority win.

What issues are causing large numbers of 2015 Liberal voters to want to vote CPC this time? The economy is doing well. Unemployment is low. The Liberals have only been in power for a few years. Scheer isn't offering anything interesting as well.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Loco101

What issues are causing large numbers of 2015 Liberal voters to want to vote CPC this time?

It's less about Liberal voters moving to the CPC and more about people either not voting at all or not voting Liberal again. Turnout is almost assuredly going to be lower in 2019 than 2015.

I've spoken with so many people who are still dismayed about the electoral reform flip and that issue alone with lower raw Liberal vote numbers.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Docere

To some extent the Ontario PCs had two messages in the GTA and outside the GTA.

As long as they don't contradict themselves too much it can work.

Brian Mulroney often had dual messaging for Quebec and the rest of Canada.

[once]

Originally Posted by Loco101

What issues are causing large numbers of 2015 Liberal voters to want to vote CPC this time?

At the end of the day they had a razor thin majority in 2015. It wouldn't take much for that to turn into a minority government situation. Hell, they could even potentially get a higher % of the popular vote and still end up with a minority government.

[GlassCity]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm not seeing enough desire for change and feel that the Trudeau Liberals will win again. The people making the biggest fuss about PMJT are ones who never supported him in the first place. Another big factor is a weaker NDP. The reality is that you don't have to be very popular to win a majority government. And even less so for a minority win.

What issues are causing large numbers of 2015 Liberal voters to want to vote CPC this time? The economy is doing well. Unemployment is low. The Liberals have only been in power for a few years. Scheer isn't offering anything interesting as well.

Yeah this is kind of what I was trying to say too.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I'm not seeing enough desire for change and feel that the Trudeau Liberals will win again. The people making the biggest fuss about PMJT are ones who never supported him in the first place. Another big factor is a weaker NDP. The reality is that you don't have to be very popular to win a majority government. And even less so for a minority win.

What issues are causing large numbers of 2015 Liberal voters to want to vote CPC this time? The economy is doing well. Unemployment is low. The Liberals have only been in power for a few years. Scheer isn't offering anything interesting as well.

I think your analysis is bang on. Trudeau def has some haters with loud voices. But these people were already extremely skeptical of Trudeau from day 1, their opinions have only solidified as time has gone on. The desire for change overall IMO isn't that strong. Scheer is not a headline grabbing leader for the Tories, he isn't offering much and seems to suffer from the Tim Hudak awkwardness on camera. The NDP is weak, and will fail in Quebec. A strong federal NDP in Quebec is a key ingredient for Conservative success, which is not at play this time. All Trudeau has to do is win his 25 seats out east, sweep Quebec, do decently well in ON, and pick up a dozen or so seats in BC and he's in power again. For the Conservatives, sweeping Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't enough. They need to also pick up seats in BC, the Maritimes, add another 20+ in ON, and make a break through in Quebec. I don't think its going to happen.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by once

At the end of the day they had a razor thin majority in 2015. It wouldn't take much for that to turn into a minority government situation. Hell, they could even potentially get a higher % of the popular vote and still end up with a minority government.

Not true, they won 184 seats (14 seats over MAJ territory). They could lose a dozen of these seats and still win a majority.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by travis3000

I think your analysis is bang on. Trudeau def has some haters with loud voices. But these people were already extremely skeptical of Trudeau from day 1, their opinions have only solidified as time as gone on. The desire for change overall IMO isn't that strong. Scheer is not a headline grabbing leader for the Tories, he isn't offering much and seems to suffer from the Tim Hudak awkwardness on camera. The NDP is weak, and will fail in Quebec. A strong federal NDP in Quebec is a key ingredient for Conservative success, which is not at play this time. All Trudeau has to do is win his 25 seats out east, sweep Quebec, do decently well in ON, and pick up a dozen or so seats in BC and he's in power again. For the Conservatives, sweeping Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't enough. They need to also pick up seats in BC, the Maritimes, add another 20+ in ON, and make a break through in Quebec. I don't think its going to happen.

We'll see what comes out of next week's Conservative policy convention and how Scheer does. It could has a significant impact on next year's election prospects.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by travis3000

For the Conservatives, sweeping Alberta and Saskatchewan isn't enough. They need to also pick up seats in BC, the Maritimes, add another 20+ in ON, and make a break through in Quebec. I don't think its going to happen.

Actually, they don't need a breakthrough at all; all they need is that the LPC doesn't get too many seats in Quebec.

The "Bloc-Layton demographic" is unlikely to vote Liberal, and has no one to vote for at the moment. Also, this demographic will decide the election.

One scenario that produces a CPC minority at first sight is if the Bloc goes back to their levels of a decade ago (50-55 seats).

[lio45]

Another factor is turnout. IMO, many people aren't going to bother voting next time. This adds another layer of unpredictability to all our forecasts.

[travis3000]

Originally Posted by lio45

Actually, they don't need a breakthrough at all; all they need is that the LPC doesn't get too many seats in Quebec.

The "Bloc-Layton demographic" is unlikely to vote Liberal, and has no one to vote for at the moment. Also, this demographic will decide the election.

One scenario that produces a CPC minority at first sight is if the Bloc goes back to their levels of a decade ago (50-55 seats).

Which is extremely unlikely. Never say never, but I wouldn't be rushing to place my bets on that scenario. A high NDP/Bloq in Quebec is good news for Conservatives.

[Docere]

An acquintance of mine, who I'm pretty sure votes NDP, remarked that Jagmeet Singh is another Audrey McLaughlin (how many posters are now googling that name?) Fair comparison?

[Dengler Avenue]

Originally Posted by Docere

An acquintance of mine, who I'm pretty sure votes NDP, remarked that Jagmeet Singh is another Audrey McLaughlin (how many posters are now googling that name?) Fair comparison?

The difference, though, is that BC NDP and AB NDP seem popular now.

[Capsicum]

So no one's predicting any good prospects for the NDP at all? There's no good way for Singh to salvage his party's popularity at least somewhat within the next year?

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by Capsicum

So no one's predicting any good prospects for the NDP at all? There's no good way for Singh to salvage his party's popularity at least somewhat within the next year?

Sure, ditch the turban and shave his beard. No politician with a beard has been elected in Canada since the 1890s. Most political analysts say that beards make candidates look untrustworthy, as if they have something to hide. Female voters in particular dislike beards. Also, adopting a mainstream political platform divorced from the lunatic fringe of the NDP would be a good idea as well.......

[Dengler Avenue]

From what I've gathered, Québec may be too secular to tolerate Singh, unless things suddenly change.

Or, unless NDP manages to win while shutting Québec out, but that's a scary thought.

141 seats...

[Docere]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Sure, ditch the turban and shave his beard. No politician with a beard has been elected in Canada since the 1890s. Adopting a mainstream political platform divorced from the lunatic fringe of the NDP would be a good idea as well.......

You're obviously not part of the potential NDP voting "universe."

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Dengler Avenue

The difference, though, is that BC NDP and AB NDP seem popular now.

True, Audrey McLaughlin had two very unpopular governments in Ontario and BC at the time.

[Capsicum]

Is the "open display of religion/ethnic marker" the main obstacle people are seeing for Singh's chances? Or his policies in particular?

Or is it also the perception that a comparatively young, urbanite like him won't "resonate" with the NDPers in rural, small town Canada?

[MonkeyRonin]

Originally Posted by MonctonRad

Most political analysts say that beards make candidates look untrustworthy, as if they have something to hide. Female voters in particular dislike beards.

Were any of those analyses done in the last 30 years? The turban might hurt in Québec, but no one in 2018 is not going to vote for someone because they have a friggin beard, of all things.

Jagmeet Singh was a poor choice for leader and is not likely to fare well in the election, but not because of how he looks - and certainly not because he has a beard.