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  #21  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 5:49 AM
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I could see Doug Ford running for the leadership.

I could see the follow scenarios:
Harper wins Majority Gov't. Harper to step down after 2 years.
Harper wins minority gov't. If the Conservative manage to govern. I expect Harper to stay for about 6-9 months.
A Liberal or NDP minority gov't is formed. Harper will step aside right away, and a leadership convention to be called for next Spring. This will prepare the party for a quick election.
A Liberal or NDP majority. Harper will resign right away. A leadership convention to be called next Fall.
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  #22  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 5:53 AM
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It would probably be better to replace this thread as a more general "who will replace the major party leaders"?

It's a bit strange as it seems to be a common problem with all the parties right now. There are no obvious replacements for leadership, and my gut feeling is that it points to an overall weak landscape of leadership already there. These individuals are the best of the best of their current parties, and there are no clear second choices.
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  #23  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 6:21 AM
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Originally Posted by BIMBAM View Post
Joe Oliver might have some chance,
He's 75 years old. Very good chance he won't be an MP a month from now either.
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  #24  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 6:23 AM
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Originally Posted by trebor204 View Post
I could see Doug Ford running for the leadership.
He's a non-entity outside the GTA.
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  #25  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 6:25 AM
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I think Jason Kenney will be a likely choice. I don't like him any more than Harper as a politician, but he seems a little more human.
He's a formidable politician, with strong ties to social conservatives and leaders of the ethncultural communities.

Wonder if he'll announce he's getting married soon.
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  #26  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 7:09 AM
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He's a non-entity outside the GTA.
He's a punchline outside the GTA.
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  #27  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 11:46 AM
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Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
It would probably be better to replace this thread as a more general "who will replace the major party leaders"?

It's a bit strange as it seems to be a common problem with all the parties right now. There are no obvious replacements for leadership, and my gut feeling is that it points to an overall weak landscape of leadership already there. These individuals are the best of the best of their current parties, and there are no clear second choices.
I did ask this in the Politics thread; but as it stands, short of a complete collapse, Harper is the only leader I see being pressured to step aside.

Mulcair would be the second most likely to be replaced; but the NDP would need to have a major collapse at the polls I think. As long as he can maintain over 100 seats, then he'll probably be given the nod to keep leading into the next election. Especially if it's a minority government situation.

Trudeau has a lot invested in him at the moment, and, once again, short of a complete collapse at the polls, he will probably be held in place. Already he'll have greatly increased the Liberal's seat count, and he comes with a ready made campaign slogan for next time thanks to Harper. (Next slogan: "He's ready now." )

So that just leaves the Bloque. After complete destruction in the coming weeks, I suppose they will be looking for a new leader; but would anyone pay them much attention?
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  #28  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 11:51 AM
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  #29  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
He's a non-entity outside the GTA.
He couldn't win, but that wouldn't stop him from running. I don't think his experiences over the last few years have diminished his ability to embarrass himself.
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  #30  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Docere View Post
He's a formidable politician, with strong ties to social conservatives and leaders of the ethncultural communities.

Wonder if he'll announce he's getting married soon.
So it's going to go there, is it?
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  #31  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
Hopefully a red Tory from, presumably, NS. Let's get the party back from the Reform/Alliance crowd.
That would result in another party split just like in the early 1990s. The party base - particularly in the west - thinks that Harper is moderate to even liberal. They would never form government if the Reform Party is reborn...

Personally I see Brad Wall as the best possible successor.
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  #32  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:51 PM
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Originally Posted by O-tacular View Post
Ha nice new thread! Who do I think will replace Stephen Harper.... Hmm....an actual human?
bada bing!
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  #33  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:52 PM
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I look forward to bumping this thread in a month.
Considering a run for the leadership of the conservative party, are you?
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  #34  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 2:55 PM
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That would result in another party split just like in the early 1990s. The party base - particularly in the west - thinks that Harper is moderate to even liberal. They would never form government if the Reform Party is reborn...
They're a dying breed. The west will continue to become more urban, progressive and diverse. You can see it already.
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  #35  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 4:01 PM
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They're a dying breed. The west will continue to become more urban, progressive and diverse. You can see it already.
With the Canadian population in general becoming older, more crotchety and more set in their ways at the same time. The baby boom will ensure a strong Conservative Party for decades to come.
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  #36  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 6:41 PM
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  #37  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 8:04 PM
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Is Brad Wall known beyond Saskatchewan? I've seen his name mentioned a few times in this thread, which is interesting.

Secondly, can he speak French?

This is important to consider. It's often said that another long term Saskatchewan politician, Ralph Goodale, would have had stronger consideration as possible PM - had he been fluent in French.
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  #38  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 8:12 PM
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What about Chris Alexander?
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  #39  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 8:23 PM
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What about Chris Alexander?
He of golden hair and good pedigree, who flew too close to the sun, and then fell to earth. Perhaps the most surprising (to some) failure to thrive in the Harper Cabinet. You'd think that a good diplomat might make a good politician, but I guess not so much in the case of "ex diplomats".
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  #40  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2015, 8:38 PM
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Originally Posted by BIMBAM View Post
Of the current cabinet, there's alot of lightweights like Pierre Poilievre who I view as basically unelectable. Joe Oliver might have some chance, but I think it's really Jason Kenney's to lose. Leona Aglukkaq ticks alot of boxes and might do well in a general election, but I don't think she'd win over enough supporters within the party, and she doesn't seem the type to really energize the Conservative base.
I actually really like Poilievre. He's young, smart, brash, and driven; I think seeing him as leader would be really fun!
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