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  #1  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:55 AM
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Should Canada Be Preparing for a Destabilized USA?

This has been on my mind recently, and I'm wondering what other forumers think we should, or even could, do if we face a dangerously unstable United States after the election.

I'm sure like most Canadians I've always been a little creeped out by the existence of American militias, which usually seemed to be made up of paranoid white guys with guns. Should we be worried they can slip back and forth across our borders?
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  #2  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:00 AM
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Yes. We should be concerned that we have groups naming themselves after known racist organizations as well.
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  #3  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
Should we be worried they can slip back and forth across our borders?
?
Why would they do that...?
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  #4  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:15 AM
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While there have been a lot of protests and riots throughout US history, the country has been surprisingly calm after "the most important election in the US' history" elections recently. When Bush Jr. was re-elected, I thought the country was going to turn on itself, but cooler heads prevailed. 2016 is obviously far different than 2004, but I'm not too worried about the US falling in to some kind of civil war-lite.

Tuesday will be interesting.
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  #5  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:34 AM
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If America really gets to the point of rounding up and deporting 12 million Mexican immigrants, we could easily end up with a huge number of them attempting to seek asylum in Canada.
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  #6  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:43 AM
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Not a chance. All part of the routine election cycle hype and bluster. Even if Trump gets elected it will be business as usual for the most part down there.

Sleep soundly, OP.
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  #7  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:44 AM
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In all western countries there is a multi-faceted behind-the-scenes "pillar" of power that will do its darndest to prevent all hell from breaking loose in the way that people are hypothesizing about here and elsewhere. Given how high the stakes are, this is especially true of the United States.

This does not mean ugliness can't happen and that all of this is foolproof, but it does make a significant meltdown pretty unlikely.
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  #8  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 3:47 AM
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In all western countries there is a multi-faceted behind-the-scenes "pillar" of power that will do its darndest to prevent all hell from breaking loose in the way that people are hypothesizing about here and elsewhere. Given how high the stakes are, this is especially true of the United States.

This does not mean ugliness can't happen and that all of this is foolproof, but it does make a significant meltdown pretty unlikely.
I'd agree. The US is becoming increasingly factionalized, but this is far from some kind of powder-keg situation where major social, political and economic institutions are about to start collapsing like in Soviet bloc countries circa 1989.

I mean, it could conceivably get there if the current trendlines continue, but the Americans aren't at that point yet.
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  #9  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:04 AM
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I don't think that it can hurt to prepare for an unstable U.S via beefing up security at the borders and at the airports.

Let's face it: a lot of people are voting for Hilary and a lot of people are voting for Trump. Whoever loses will anger the other half of the voters. And considering how dramatic this particular election has been, I do think that Canada has to be concerned with the results of the losing supporters.

This is probably the only election that I think that Canada should prepare itself for an unstable US.
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  #10  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by esquire View Post
I'd agree. The US is becoming increasingly factionalized, but this is far from some kind of powder-keg situation where major social, political and economic institutions are about to start collapsing like in Soviet bloc countries circa 1989.

I mean, it could conceivably get there if the current trendlines continue, but the Americans aren't at that point yet.
Even if the members of the "power in the shadows" often have as their sole motivation for ensuring stability, purely mercantile objectives like selling as many gas barbecues or pairs of jeans as possible to American consumers.
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  #11  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:13 AM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
If America really gets to the point of rounding up and deporting 12 million Mexican immigrants, we could easily end up with a huge number of them attempting to seek asylum in Canada.
We're talking fictional scenarios here, but if you're going to round them up to deport them, you're going to want them back behind the border that will have The Wall, not behind the porous one.
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  #12  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:24 AM
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I think at worst there will be a few protests with a few skirmishes thrown in for good measure as a few extreme supporters of Trump become emboldened once he loses.

The Koch brothers will do their darnedest to ensure their chosen politicians are elected so that the Repubs have controlled of the house and/or the senate...leading to further gridlock as it was for much of the Obama administration..so business as usual.
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  #13  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:45 AM
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We're talking fictional scenarios here, but if you're going to round them up to deport them, you're going to want them back behind the border that will have The Wall, not behind the porous one.
My thinking is that given a mass deportation scenario, a good chunk of those 12 million people may rush to reach the Canadian border and claim asylum before the US government can get their hands on them.

We were pretty generous about taking in 25,000 Syrian refugees that we had the luxury of choosing from a huge pool of potential migrants. We aren't going to have that luxury if a few million Americans swarm our border crossings. I wonder if our supposedly infinite goodwill will hold in that scenario.
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Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 5:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnext View Post
This has been on my mind recently, and I'm wondering what other forumers think we should, or even could, do if we face a dangerously unstable United States after the election.

I'm sure like most Canadians I've always been a little creeped out by the existence of American militias, which usually seemed to be made up of paranoid white guys with guns. Should we be worried they can slip back and forth across our borders?
Donald Trump's chances of winning are very slim. For some reason I feel that the female and minority voters are very underestimated in polling. Remember last year how a number of people thought the Harper Conservatives had a chance of winning right until election day?

Even if Trump were to win don't forget that Obama is president until January 20th. And I find that the states that border Canada tend not to be not as crazy as many of the Southern ones.
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  #15  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 5:32 AM
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Nothing is going to happen. Remember people predicting Obama winning would see a civil war break out again. How did that turn out? Some complaining and life went on, same thing this time around regardless of who wins. Some will say they'll leave the country, few will and life will go on pretty much the same.
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Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 7:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Donald Trump's chances of winning are very slim. For some reason I feel that the female and minority voters are very underestimated in polling. Remember last year how a number of people thought the Harper Conservatives had a chance of winning right until election day?

Even if Trump were to win don't forget that Obama is president until January 20th. And I find that the states that border Canada tend not to be not as crazy as many of the Southern ones.
In the US a lot depends on turnout of specific groups. Most groups are heavily loyal to either the Democrats or Republicans. As a result, compared to Canadian elections, winning an American election is less about convincing people to support you and more about getting your base to turn out. As a result, motivating your base and get-out-the-vote are crucial aspects of winning a campaign. It is for this reason that the Republicans performed so well in the 2014 midterm election; turnout among Democrat-leaning demographics was extremely poor.

Because Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump in financing and organization, she has a huge advantage in get-out-the-vote; data from advance polls suggest that the Democrats are indeed outperforming the Republicans on turnout.

As for regions.. it should be noted that many of Trump's polling gains over Romney's 2012 performance are in areas closer to Canada. Ohio is just across the Great Lakes from Ontario, and Trump is expected to win there, despite Obama winning Ohio in both 2008 and 2012.

Conversely, the southern US has seen a big swing towards Clinton and she's polling at unusually high levels for a Democrat there. The most dramatic example of this is Arizona. Normally a Republican stronghold, Clinton has a real shot at winning it. Clinton has also seen gains in places like Georgia and Texas although it's nowhere near enough to actually win either state.
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  #17  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 7:47 AM
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Trump's chances are very real. This blog tends to be the most accurate predictor of the race:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

This time last election, Romney had a paltry 10% chance at winning. Trump has made huge gains, with most betting markets placing him between 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 chance of winning.

That said, US elections are always a spectacle. It is a giant hype machine that means very little. I would actually say the US Presidential election means even less than the Canadian election, because in order for any law to be passed in the USA, it needs a majority of Congress to vote for it, and each Congress person can operate completely independently from their party. Each representative in the American Congress has autonomy to vote however they feel like, there is no concept of "free vote" - every vote is a "free vote".

No matter who wins in the USA, it will be business as usual. Just sit back and enjoy the show.
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  #18  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 9:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlousa View Post
Nothing is going to happen. Remember people predicting Obama winning would see a civil war break out again. How did that turn out? Some complaining and life went on, same thing this time around regardless of who wins. Some will say they'll leave the country, few will and life will go on pretty much the same.
I think this election is different. This is the first election since marriage rights were equalized at the federal level, along with many federal protections for LGBTQ employees. If Trump gets elected, all of that progress (and then some) will be erased. I could see a scenario where hundreds of thousands of gay people (out of the 10 million or so in the country) leave the country. I know I would be sick of living in some fuckhole where the politicians can literally decide if you're a first or second class citizen. Lots of my American friends keep jokingly asking "So do you have a spare room?", but I think that could become reality if civil rights are actually stripped.
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  #19  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 9:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
Trump's chances are very real. This blog tends to be the most accurate predictor of the race:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/

This time last election, Romney had a paltry 10% chance at winning. Trump has made huge gains, with most betting markets placing him between 1 in 3 to 1 in 4 chance of winning.

That said, US elections are always a spectacle. It is a giant hype machine that means very little. I would actually say the US Presidential election means even less than the Canadian election, because in order for any law to be passed in the USA, it needs a majority of Congress to vote for it, and each Congress person can operate completely independently from their party. Each representative in the American Congress has autonomy to vote however they feel like, there is no concept of "free vote" - every vote is a "free vote".

No matter who wins in the USA, it will be business as usual. Just sit back and enjoy the show.
Before the last Clinton email nonsense, Trump had less than a 10% chance of winning according to fivethirtyeight. Though two days isn't enough to reverse the slide that's happened, I'm pretty confident in the outcome given that is mostly behind us now, and the polls are already showing a reversal of Clinton's slide.
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  #20  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 9:15 AM
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No. Besides, if order ever truly collapses there, we're gone too.
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