Originally Posted by Loco101
Donald Trump's chances of winning are very slim. For some reason I feel that the female and minority voters are very underestimated in polling. Remember last year how a number of people thought the Harper Conservatives had a chance of winning right until election day?
Even if Trump were to win don't forget that Obama is president until January 20th. And I find that the states that border Canada tend not to be not as crazy as many of the Southern ones.
In the US a lot depends on turnout of specific groups. Most groups are heavily loyal to either the Democrats or Republicans. As a result, compared to Canadian elections, winning an American election is less about convincing people to support you and more about getting your base to turn out. As a result, motivating your base and get-out-the-vote are crucial aspects of winning a campaign. It is for this reason that the Republicans performed so well in the 2014 midterm election; turnout among Democrat-leaning demographics was extremely poor.
Because Clinton has a massive advantage over Trump in financing and organization, she has a huge advantage in get-out-the-vote; data from advance polls suggest that the Democrats are indeed outperforming the Republicans on turnout.
As for regions.. it should be noted that many of Trump's polling gains over Romney's 2012 performance are in areas closer to Canada. Ohio is just across the Great Lakes from Ontario, and Trump is expected to win there, despite Obama winning Ohio in both 2008 and 2012.
Conversely, the southern US has seen a big swing towards Clinton and she's polling at unusually high levels for a Democrat there. The most dramatic example of this is Arizona. Normally a Republican stronghold, Clinton has a real shot at winning it. Clinton has also seen gains in places like Georgia and Texas although it's nowhere near enough to actually win either state.