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  #21  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 9:21 AM
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As much as the US has always scared me to some degree, I think that it is pretty far from becoming "some fuckhole." Political whim is not an American thing.

As for the thread question, we should always have a reasonable fear of a neighbour 10 times our size and maybe 20 times our power. There are too many stupid, inexperienced, uneducated, angry people in the US . . . just like in Germany, or France, or PEI, or Alberta, or BC, or . . . BUT, most Americans remain as close to most Canadians as people can be.
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  #22  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:04 PM
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The discussion this morning on CBC was that the Latin-American vote in the advance polls in Nevada is far beyond what pollsters were predicting leading into the election. Nevada has been predicted as solidly behind Trump, but if the advance polls are a reflection, the guest on CBC was saying that it would be almost impossible for him to carry the state. I suspect that the unusual nature of this election may make polling less reliable than in previous elections; I guess we'll know for sure Monday morning though!
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  #23  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I think this election is different. This is the first election since marriage rights were equalized at the federal level, along with many federal protections for LGBTQ employees. If Trump gets elected, all of that progress (and then some) will be erased. I could see a scenario where hundreds of thousands of gay people (out of the 10 million or so in the country) leave the country. I know I would be sick of living in some fuckhole where the politicians can literally decide if you're a first or second class citizen. Lots of my American friends keep jokingly asking "So do you have a spare room?", but I think that could become reality if civil rights are actually stripped.
marriage rights were equalized by a supreme court decision as it was ruled unconstitutional.. a president can't change court law like that*. Gay Marriage is here to stay.

*well, they could, but it would be struck down at the courts.
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  #24  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:16 PM
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Depends on how right wing the justices are........
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  #25  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 1:46 PM
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Not really all that concerned...

Trump won't win.

Even if he did, he can't forcibly enact the vast majority of his awful policies. That includes forcing mexicans/muslims out, wall-building, or canceling any free trade agreement he waves his hand at. Our dollar and economy would take a hit for a while but we wouldn't be dealing with some sort of mass backlash that people are worried about.

I remember back in 2008 when Obama was elected and people being worried back then about him being assassinated during his first term. Here we are eight years later.

If anything, the real winners of the election if Trump wins are CNN et.al. news media that's been covering this nonstop for the past year. A Trump win for them guarantees more eyes on the news and on TVs/sites.

In terms of the armed militias throughout the US: They've existed for longer than Canada has existed as a country and that really hasn't negatively affected us to any degree. The super right-wing Trump camp has had some influence on Canadian supporters of those policies, and may make them a little more vocal in 2019, but otherwise won't really have much of an impact. Silent majority is a massive belief amongst many in the United States.
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  #26  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:22 PM
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Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
That said, US elections are always a spectacle. It is a giant hype machine that means very little. I would actually say the US Presidential election means even less than the Canadian election, because in order for any law to be passed in the USA, it needs a majority of Congress to vote for it, and each Congress person can operate completely independently from their party. Each representative in the American Congress has autonomy to vote however they feel like, there is no concept of "free vote" - every vote is a "free vote".

No matter who wins in the USA, it will be business as usual. Just sit back and enjoy the show.
Exactly. Couldn't agree more.

Regardless of the exact makeup of Congress for the next two years and then for the next other two years, and regardless of who of Trump or HRC is POTUS for the next four years, that POTUS will definitely NOT have an easy time with Congress -- he or she is already very disliked, either very intensely by the GOP Reps and Senators in her case (a bloc that is basically guaranteed to control the House), and by probably nearly everyone (including lots within his own party) in his.

So, expect the status quo, and political gridlock. "Business as usual" is correct.

(For the record, I'm pretty fine with the status quo, generally speaking.)
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  #27  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Chadillaccc View Post
I know I would be sick of living in some fuckhole where the politicians can literally decide if you're a first or second class citizen.
You're still in your early 20s and haven't yet finalized your career path / education path, right? Have you considered law school at TWU...? It's not even that far from Calgary!
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  #28  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:40 PM
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I think the extremely vocal Trump supporters - you know the ones who are calling for an armed response and such - are actually a pretty small minority. They seem louder and crazier than they are because of the internet and their own internal echo chambers on twitter, reddit and 4chan. Not to mention the hundreds of bots they have set up repeating Trump slogans. As for the white supremacist groups and such - if they didn't do anything when Obama was elected I doubt they will now.

In reality I expect a few protests and the usual whining online, but nothing substantial really. I also don't give Trump a very high chance of winning at this point - we are likely just seeing the tightening of the race which happens close to election day. Nate Silver is being very conservative in his predictions because in the chance he is wrong it will discredit his entire model.
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  #29  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:47 PM
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One of my buddies has never been more scared to go to the store than this past month. The redneck makes his living on moonshine too. The election is being used as an excuse to act out and everyone carries. Mass flooding hasn't help the situation either. I hope it dies down after the election no matter who wins.



Trump's an idiot and a narcissist. He lucked out inheriting his father's political connections and rising in the free spending 1980s. As president, his decisions will be based on how much money he can make for himself rather than on preserving his political career. This is worrisome however ,none of the parties really support him anymore. I doubt he will be able to accomplish anything.

The US economy would take a beating without cheap Mexican labour and cheap imports. It's all a show.
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  #30  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 2:48 PM
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Originally Posted by WhipperSnapper View Post
One of my buddies has never been more scared to go to the store than this past month. The redneck makes his living on moonshine too. The election is being used as an excuse to act out and everyone carries. Masss flooding hasn't help the situation either. I hope it dies down after the election no matter who wins.

Trump's an idiot and a narcissist. He lucked out inheriting his father's political connections and rising in the free spending 1980s. As president, his decisions will be based on how much money he can make for himself rather than on preserving his political career. This is worrisome however ,none of the parties really support him anymore. I doubt he will be able to accomplish anything.

The US economy would take a beating without cheap Mexican labour and cheap imports. It's all a show.
Did his father have political connections? I thought the family were outsiders/wannabes, at least among the Manhattan elites.
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  #31  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:28 PM
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I see that the Dow Jones is up 300 points this morning. Money has decided that Hilary will win, it seems.
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  #32  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 4:52 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I see that the Dow Jones is up 300 points this morning. Money has decided that Hilary will win, it seems.
Good news! I've noticed the Dow had been on a slow steady downward spiral for the last couple of weeks in anticipation of the election.......
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  #33  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 5:02 PM
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Originally Posted by jeremy_haak View Post
The discussion this morning on CBC was that the Latin-American vote in the advance polls in Nevada is far beyond what pollsters were predicting leading into the election. Nevada has been predicted as solidly behind Trump, but if the advance polls are a reflection, the guest on CBC was saying that it would be almost impossible for him to carry the state. I suspect that the unusual nature of this election may make polling less reliable than in previous elections; I guess we'll know for sure Monday morning though!
Fivethirtyeight has had Nevada narrowly for Clinton for a long time. Florida has now moved back into her column as well, as has North Carolina. Last night, that wasn't the case.
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  #34  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 5:07 PM
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It also appears unlikely that the Democrats will be taking control of the Senate - something that was almost a given before the FBI got involved when they shouldn't have.
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  #35  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:03 PM
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Originally Posted by kwoldtimer View Post
I see that the Dow Jones is up 300 points this morning. Money has decided that Hilary will win, it seems.
They also thought Remain would win in the UK.

I don't necessarily doubt Hillary will win, but it does seem to me that Trump has fired up an already angry core of wingnut supporters to a boiling point and they won't accept a Democratic win peacefully.
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  #36  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:22 PM
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Originally Posted by jmt18325 View Post
Fivethirtyeight has had Nevada narrowly for Clinton for a long time. Florida has now moved back into her column as well, as has North Carolina. Last night, that wasn't the case.
Of course, the correct way to interpret the 538 results here is that 538 gives her a chance slightly better than a coin flip of winning those states...
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  #37  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:22 PM
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Ironically, since the election will be decided on turnout, good polls can be bad while bad polls can be good.

The best way to boost Clinton's narrow lead is to publish fresh numbers showing Trump is gaining and has a decent shot; the best way to cool off support for Clinton is to publish numbers showing Trump isn't going to win and that there's no need to try to block him.
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  #38  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:28 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Ironically, since the election will be decided on turnout, good polls can be bad while bad polls can be good.

The best way to boost Clinton's narrow lead is to publish fresh numbers showing Trump is gaining and has a decent shot; the best way to cool off support for Clinton is to publish numbers showing Trump isn't going to win and that there's no need to try to block him.
Possibly. On the other hand, some people may want to feel they've voted for the winner - they could be motivated to vote by the poll leader at voting time.

We live in an age of cynicism, but I continue to believe that the serious pollsters publish their real numbers, filtered through professionally designed filters (or perhaps I should say adjusted according to valid criteria). If any were ever discovered to have manipulated results to influence election outcomes, I'm not sure there'd be any alternative to banning advance polls.
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  #39  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:31 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
Ironically, since the election will be decided on turnout, good polls can be bad while bad polls can be good.

The best way to boost Clinton's narrow lead is to publish fresh numbers showing Trump is gaining and has a decent shot; the best way to cool off support for Clinton is to publish numbers showing Trump isn't going to win and that there's no need to try to block him.
There are several good reasons to believe the polls this year are way off compared to previous elections as well.

There are a high number of undecided voters.

Both candidates have very high unfavorability ratings.

As more people switch to cell phone usage exclusively, traditional polls will be less and less accurate. Even in 2012 Obama far outperformed his polling. It wasn't that accurate.

Tomorrow will be interesting.
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  #40  
Old Posted Nov 7, 2016, 6:34 PM
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Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post
There are several good reasons to believe the polls this year are way off compared to previous elections as well.

There are a high number of undecided voters.

Both candidates have very high unfavorability ratings.

As more people switch to cell phone usage exclusively, traditional polls will be less and less accurate. Even in 2012 Obama far outperformed his polling. It wasn't that accurate.

Tomorrow will be interesting.
Haven't all pollsters long since adjusted their polling methods to adapt to the technology?

I have wondered whether Trump supporters are not being undercounted because they refuse to/are too embarrassed to/are too paranoid to identify themselves to pollsters as Trump voters. We'll find out tomorrow.
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