Originally Posted by Migrant_Coconut
It's a Thirty Year Plan, not a Ten Year Plan.
A new SkyTrain extension opens roughly every seven years... possibly even faster as the new extensions bring in more revenue. Assuming no setbacks, it's possible that we'll see a couple of new lines (not counting Broadway or Langley) before 2050.
Keeping that in mind, I'd split that Loop Line into several smaller lines. Much easier to finance/construct/operate that way.
The Hastings-Boundary-41st 'Loop'?
It's not a true Loop, it only ends up turning 260 Degrees, not a full 360. It's a Semi-Loop.
Plus, it's around 30-32 km in length adding up everything, near the same length as the Expo Line.
How would I split it up? The UBC-Joyce section can't really be split. I guess I could split the loop among the Expo and another Line, though.
Though that would extend the Expo beyond its role as the "Spine" of the BC transit system. Hastings is fairly well used, but if Expo went though it, it would make a East Hastings revitalization that much more essential.
I'm not against it, I'm just throwing potential concerns and benefits.
Also, what about the use of a Gondola and Elevator system to replace Seabus across Vancouver Harbour as a 3rd Crossing?
Sort of like the Peak2Peak gondola, which has a free span of 3.03 km, but with a clearance of 50m- a tower and an elevator would be made on Lonsdale and Waterfront that has a height of 70 m?
The free span would need to be at least 3.24km (ideally 3.3 km for extra margin). This would set a world record and be an excellent tourist attraction in the middle of Vancouver.
It cost CDN$51 million. So I guess we can say maybe $350 Million including the costs of building over a harbour. (The two towers are essentially just empty truss structures- unless we decide to make them office towers as well- in which case we could rent out space).
Massively cheaper than a tunnel (Broadway Phase 1 alone would cost $2 Billion, so cheap in comparison) and BMG would cost $120 Million.
Since Vancouver would get more tax $$$ later on due to more people, I would assume post 2035, it would decrease to 5y per extension.
So I guess I would say:
2017 (Technically 2016, December):
Broadway Line Phases 1-2 (Phase 1 2021) ($5 Billion)
Surrey Line Phases 1 (Newton to Guildford) - 2 (Guildford to Langley Memorial) plus new Canada, Millennium, and Expo Line Stations. (@ $110-120 Million per km of El Rail (plus overruns), $5.170 Billion).
Fun fact, by this estimate, Surrey L-Line as El Skytrain would be ~$3 Billion, or $.4 Billion more than the current LRT plans. Making it even more pointless.
+ New YVR 3rd Terminal and Runway.
Expo Line Extension on Hastings. Canada Line and Millennium Line Expansion. Burnaby Mountain Gondola, Vancouver Harbour Gondola, Commuter Rail "Rail for the Valley" to Abbotsford, Marine Drive, Arbutus, and West Coast Express Expansions. Commuter Rail to Tswassen Ferry Terminal. Commuter Rail Spur to Horseshoe Bay. All in all $2 Billion in new rail lines and infrastructure, plus 400 new rail locomotives. Gondolas cost $600 Million plus decommissioning of Seabus. Expo Line Extension costs ( @ $357 Million per km of cut and cover subway, $2.8 Billion including $.2 Billion in investment $ into revitalizing East Hastings.)
In total, $5.4 Billion in total infrastructure.
New Iona Island Ferry Terminal, new Sunshine Coast Rail and Road Link (funded outside Translink). New Iona- Steveston Seashore Line ($2 Billion if El Rail+ Surface Skytrain all the way).
New Evergreen Line and Extension to Albion ($2 Billion, surface and El Rail).
North Delta Skytrain Line ($3 Billion El Rail and Surface to White Rock)
Remaining Commuter Rail Expansions ($1 Billion?, including Commuter Rail to Peace Arch and Chilliwack?+250 new Locomotives? )
+ North Van Gondola up Lynn Valley? ($500 Million?)
+ New Expansion of Abbostford International Airport, Airport Traffic to increasingly be moved there. Also, includes potential Airship Traffic.
Missing: 41st Ave and Boundary Rd. Subway + El Rail (at UBC and Pacific Spirit) "Semi-loop"- $7.7 Billion! (Boundary Rd. Bridge prevents Boundary Rd. Segment from being El Rail). Meaning by this, it would be something for 2055. Is it worth it to try to salvage it? Or am I being too conservative/liberal with my estimates?
Also, I noticed how no one seemed to care about the highway system much- I would have thought the Westminister Tunnel would have gained some attention.
I wonder if it would be viable to extend Skytrain to Peace Arch and connect to Bellingham's transit system... if it would have any decent one...
This doesn't include inflation or real estate prices (likely to go down), so keep my numbers with a grain of salt.
HOWEVER. There is an issue, Translink is also $3.6 Billion in debt.
Unless we find a new major source of revenue (like road pricing...), or we stick to PPP contracts for the future, and be more careful on long-term costs (not too popular around here, but it could