Originally Posted by Jebby
No, my predictions are that climate charge alarmists are full of bullshit and the science isn't settle on how much human activity contributes to climate change. Is it 100%, 70%, 50%, 5%? And how much would even the most aggressive actions mitigate climate change? Again, by 100%, 70%, 50%, 5%?
You would think that we’d know the Earth’s ‘climate sensitivity’ by now, but it has been surprisingly difficult to determine. How atmospheric processes like clouds and precipitation systems respond to warming is critical, as they are either amplifying the warming, or reducing it. This website currently concentrates on the response of clouds to warming, an issue which I am now convinced the scientific community has totally misinterpreted when they have measured natural, year-to-year fluctuations in the climate system. As a result of that confusion, they have the mistaken belief that climate sensitivity is high, when in fact the satellite evidence suggests climate sensitivity is low.
We don't know. Short term climate is heavily influenced by short term weather and climatic patterns. We know the general direction is up, and why it is (for the most part).
We can't predict exact dates, or temperatures- because doing so requires a level of sensitivity and accuracy current instruments can't do.
It's like how people predicted the '08 economic crisis, but no one knew exact when it was going to happen, and where. Turns out it blew up when Lehman Bros and Northern Rock collapsed in September. But no one could predict that exact day. It could have been any other major Wall St or British bank.
Look at it this way. Say you got fat. Back in the day, you didn't realize it because your weight fluctuated over the years, but the general direction is up. And so one day, you wake up, and you're fat. You get the idea?
Looking at Climate Change in the scale of a few decades fuels climate skepticism for this reason. Short Term patterns are difficult to extrapolate to long terms, and Long Term patterns are difficult to interpolate to short terms.