Will the Migration from "Snowbelt" to "Sunbelt" Reverse in the U.S.?

[CaliNative]

Will climate change, water shortages, and high housing costs in the "sunbelt" states cause a reverse migration back to the northern and eastern "snow belt" states in the future? I wouldn't rule it out. Costs are totally insane out here in sunny California, and we are smack dab starting another drought. I myself (a native Californian) peruse housing costs enviously in places like Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and Pittsburgh.

[ocman]

Climate change and drought, no. Housing costs, yes. But I can’t imagine people wanting to move to the snowbelt over the South. Scorching temperatures don’t seem to have a big effect on the desirability of places. I think people tend to prefer the heat over the snow. Las Vegas and towns in Texas are always somewhere near the top of lists for places where people want to move to, no doubt the climate overcome by affordable housing prices.


Water security for populations and CA cities is an engineering issue. Shortage is an issue for the agricultural industry. Cities like LA need to find a way to use the billions of gallons of perfectly good water that it flushes out into the ocean, and reuse it. It’s potentially a self-sustaining system if we had the political will.

[Kenmore]

massive swaths of densely populated coastline are a lock to be underwater within a century, so of course

[pdxtex]

some folks are stopping halfway and settling in middle region cities. look at places like nashville, okc, and charlotte. you would be surprised how much more pleasant a winter 400 miles south of ann arbor is. for alot of folks, i think they are just seeking that little bit of an edge. portland is like that too. its not a sunbelt city but its about as mild as it gets for a northern place.

[RC14]

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

[Kngkyle]

I see global warming as making the Great Lakes region much more desirable.

Droughts are impossible - unlimited cheap fresh water
No impact from rising sea levels
Milder winters
No exposure to hurricanes

Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc... I think they will all have a second coming as the boom towns of America.

Yes, there are engineering solutions to many of the problems coastal and dryer regions will face, but that will cost enormous sums of money and make the cost of living in those regions even more prohibitive.

[F1 Tommy]

Originally Posted by Kngkyle

I see global warming as making the Great Lakes region much more desirable.

Droughts are impossible - unlimited cheap fresh water
No impact from rising sea levels
Milder winters
No exposure to hurricanes

Detroit, Chicago, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Buffalo, etc... I think they will all have a second coming as the boom towns of America.

Yes, there are engineering solutions to many of the problems coastal and dryer regions will face, but that will cost enormous sums of money and make the cost of living in those regions even more prohibitive.

+1 along with infrastructure costs hitting cities more in states like Texas, Cali and Florida as they get more and more people and have old city problems. Nothing lasts forever. If companies start coming back to the "rustbelt" due to lowered comparable costs so will people as everyone follows the jobs.

[the urban politician]

I don't think we can predict anything.

Rome went from a million to a few thousand in just a few years. Then it rebounded and, millennia later, is one of the world's great cities.

I don't know why cold weather punishes American cities so much more than cities elsewhere in the world, but world history suggests that colder weather really is not a significant factor in a city's success.

So we should just stop making predictions, IMO.

[pj3000]

Emerging viruses/tropical diseases will likely push people north before rising sea levels, drought do.

The "invisible" effects of climate change are the scariest.

[the urban politician]

The nice thing about our winters is that every year we sterilize our environment.

There is something protective about a complete freeze happening cyclically.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by RC14

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

Just a quick clarification regarding LA and water... Most of Los Angeles, even the immediate coast, wouldnt be effected by rising sea levels. The elevation gains almost immediately after the beach other than a couple places like Venice beach and Marina Del Rey. We also have plenty of water but let it flush to the ocean during rains. The mountains surrounding LA receive plenty of rain and snow, its just that we have paved all the rivers so most of it drains. We are now reversing a lot of our mistakes, replenishing ground water reservoirs, the LA river and its tributaries and cutting down on wasteful water usage.

[CaliNative]

Originally Posted by RC14

As the cost of solar power comes down and cities find better solutions to water issues extreme heat will become less of an issue. It is my understanding that Phoenicians live indoors all summer long anyway.

I would also note that, aside from LA, the cities that would be most prone to water shortages are probably not the same ones that need to worry about rising sea levels.

However, like Pdxtex said, I think middle region cities like Nashville, Charlotte, maybe even Albuquerque will become more attractive.

"Breaking Bad" was great publicity for ABQ. Greatest TV show ever. "Better Call Saul" almost as good.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

I don't think we can predict anything.

Rome went from a million to a few thousand in just a few years. Then it rebounded and, millennia later, is one of the world's great cities.

I don't know why cold weather punishes American cities so much more than cities elsewhere in the world, but world history suggests that colder weather really is not a significant factor in a city's success.

So we should just stop making predictions, IMO.

Actually Rome was shattered for a millennium before it recovered. For over 1,000 years Rome had a population of less than 100,000. When Napoleon invaded in 1798 the population is though to be closer to 50,000. Rome is the worst example of "it's ok, it's all alright in the long run" because the city was in ruins for centuries before recovering to where it is today.

[LouisVanDerWright]

Originally Posted by the urban politician

The nice thing about our winters is that every year we sterilize our environment.

There is something protective about a complete freeze happening cyclically.

Most importantly the cold kills termites and drives away whiney snowbirds. Frankly anyone who would choose where they live based on climate I don't want living in my city. It's a stupid reason to live somewhere.

[Centropolis]

i say this all the time, but the i think the growth, at least in the west, will be in the northern interior west. you know, boise, and others.

[skyscraperpage17]

The one-time mass migration to the Snowbelt was an anomaly, mainly because of the automobile and the collapse of the confederacy following the civil war. People put up with the harsh weather up north mainly to feed their families.

Before then, Most of the country's population was in the Sunbelt region and also along the east coast.

With manufacturing going the way of the dodo bird (in terms of creating a ton of good-paying jobs) and air conditioning having now become standard, people are going back to their roots (so to speak) and settling down south again. The land is cheap and the infrastructure is all relatively new.

https://newsinteractive.post-gazette...eat-migration/

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rsal/21818127/

http://www.mlive.com/news/index.ssf/...s_to_flee.html

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...sus-data-show/

[MolsonExport]

Jesus, is it really that bad to live up North? Some snow for 3-4 months is not a big deal.

but then again, I am Canadian, and all we do is bitch about the weather.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Jesus, is it really that bad to live up North? Some snow for 3-4 months is not a big deal.

but then again, I am Canadian, and all we do is bitch about the weather.

In the states, the people who complain most about weather are posting from a place like Dallas or Atlanta. There were several such posters in the Amazon thread saying that HQ2 will be in the south because weather.

[RC14]

Originally Posted by CaliNative

"Breaking Bad" was great publicity for ABQ. Greatest TV show ever. "Better Call Saul" almost as good.

Amen

[James Bond Agent 007]

Been saying for years, the popularity of the Sunbelt will eventually become its own demise. California is merely the first, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Texas will be next. When Mississippi and Louisiana start to become "popular" Sunbelt destinations then you know they're starting to scrape the bottom of the barrel and the glory days of Sunbelt growth will be over.