Ottawa Byelections

[Vanier]

Originally Posted by Acajack

T but not as bad as Blake which is probably the worst part of Vanier.T

Other than a couple of notable incidents, even Blake Blvd isn't "dangerous". I walk the dogs there everyday and the homeowners are great. The rentals? That is where the trouble resides but it would be an exaggeration to suggest it is "Fort Apache".

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by Vanier

Other than a couple of notable incidents, even Blake Blvd isn't "dangerous". I walk the dogs there everyday and the homeowners are great. The rentals? That is where the trouble resides but it would be an exaggeration to suggest it is "Fort Apache".

I never said it was Fort Apache, but it's not the nicest area.

[Cre47]

Originally Posted by Acajack

So there have been no shootings this year in the Vatican-esque square mile of territory that used to be the City of Vanier. This is quite surprising.

Not anymore

http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-...ha-avenue-area

[rocketphish]

The NDP candidate, Claude Bisson, was interviewed on CBC Radio's Ottawa Morning on Friday, and I haven't heard a more ill-prepared candidate in a long long time. It was embarrassing. You'd think that a political candidate would be able to articulate his position and at least have some idea about the party platform, but Robin Bresnahan had a better grasp of the major issues that he did.

Audio: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa...nier-1.3825685

[acottawa]

I voted in the advance poll yesterday. I was surprised how little campaigning had gone on before the advance polls opened. They only flyer in my mailbox was from the Junior Anti-Sex League (or whatever they're called) and nothing from the 3 main parties.

[kwoldtimer]

I've had canvassers for Des Rosiers and Marin at the door. What I haven't seen or heard anything about is any public forum where one could actually hear the candidates speak, not that it would make a difference to how I plan to vote in this specific byelection. I suppose it's good to know we have (at least) two abundantly qualified candidates for the job.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by acottawa

I voted in the advance poll yesterday. I was surprised how little campaigning had gone on before the advance polls opened. They only flyer in my mailbox was from the Junior Anti-Sex League (or whatever they're called) and nothing from the 3 main parties.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by rocketphish

The NDP candidate, Claude Bisson, was interviewed on CBC Radio's Ottawa Morning on Friday, and I haven't heard a more ill-prepared candidate in a long long time. It was embarrassing. You'd think that a political candidate would be able to articulate his position and at least have some idea about the party platform, but Robin Bresnahan had a better grasp of the major issues that he did.

Audio: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa...nier-1.3825685

That's disappointing. His brother Gilles (MPP for the New Liskeard and Timmins regions) is a bit rough around the edges sometimes but he's definitely a seasoned politician.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I thought the PCs were the Junior Anti-Sex League?

[Docere]

Both the provincial and federal seats are vacant. It will be interesting to compare the vote tallies of the very unpopular provincial Liberals and the popular federal Liberals.

This has been a ridiculously safe Liberal riding, so it Morin takes it I think Kathleen Wynne will have to step down. They won't be able to blame it on social conservative wedge issues - this would be like losing St. Paul's or Toronto Centre.

[acottawa]

It's hard to see a scenario where the liberals lose. Even in years the PCs have won large provincial or federal majorities they have lost this riding by 20-30 point margin.

[Docere]

Yeah, if the Liberals were reduced to three ridings province-wide in a general election, Vanier would be one of them.

[1overcosc]

The Liberals will win Ottawa-Vanier; that's more or less assured. The interesting part will be the margin. The Liberals won the riding by a margin of 33 points in 2014. If Marin manages to narrow it down to 10-15 points that would amount to a major symbolic "win" for the PCs, as that's a shift large enough to create a PC majority if its replicated provincewide in 2018.

Both parties know this and I imagine they're both using the by-election as a test of campaigning strategies more than anything else. The PCs may be warming up Marin to possibly make a run in Orleans or Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 given his star candidate status which in a general election would be wasted in a place like Ottawa-Vanier.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Liberals will win Ottawa-Vanier; that's more or less assured. The interesting part will be the margin. The Liberals won the riding by a margin of 33 points in 2014. If Marin manages to narrow it down to 10-15 points that would amount to a major symbolic "win" for the PCs, as that's a shift large enough to create a PC majority if its replicated provincewide in 2018.

Both parties know this and I imagine they're both using the by-election as a test of campaigning strategies more than anything else. The PCs may be warming up Marin to possibly make a run in Orleans or Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 given his star candidate status which in a general election would be wasted in a place like Ottawa-Vanier.

Marin is not a star candidate. He has name recognition, but in this civil service town, that name is mud.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Marin is not a star candidate. He has name recognition, but in this civil service town, that name is mud.

Probably his strongest recommendation, in some quarters.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

Probably his strongest recommendation, in some quarters.

Perhaps. But he's hated in military and RCMP circles, which would make him radioactive in Orleans.

[kwoldtimer]

Originally Posted by Uhuniau

Perhaps. But he's hated in military and RCMP circles, which would make him radioactive in Orleans.

You mean in senior military and RCMP circles, no?

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

The Liberals will win Ottawa-Vanier; that's more or less assured. The interesting part will be the margin. The Liberals won the riding by a margin of 33 points in 2014. If Marin manages to narrow it down to 10-15 points that would amount to a major symbolic "win" for the PCs, as that's a shift large enough to create a PC majority if its replicated provincewide in 2018.

Both parties know this and I imagine they're both using the by-election as a test of campaigning strategies more than anything else. The PCs may be warming up Marin to possibly make a run in Orleans or Ottawa West-Nepean in 2018 given his star candidate status which in a general election would be wasted in a place like Ottawa-Vanier.

If somehow the Liberals lose (either to the PC's or to the NDP), it is virtually certain Kathleen Wynne would resign as party leader. Vanier should be the safest Liberal seat outside of central Toronto and one of the 5 or 10 safest in the province.

Marin is definitely not a social conservative, so that can't come into play (it would be a huge liability there anyway).

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by eternallyme

If somehow the Liberals lose (either to the PC's or to the NDP), it is virtually certain Kathleen Wynne would resign as party leader. Vanier should be the safest Liberal seat outside of central Toronto and one of the 5 or 10 safest in the province.

Marin is definitely not a social conservative, so that can't come into play (it would be a huge liability there anyway).

Really? I know it's the safest of safe seats but she'd quit the premiership over a byelection?

[1overcosc]

Marin is very much a moderate.

My sister (resident of the riding) went to the community debate and she told me she was blown away by how progressive many of Marin's statements were... he indicated he supports spending more money on cycling infrastructure, the opening of a safe injection site, and expanding welfare.