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  #2001  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2016, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by ToxiK View Post
Protectionism won't stop automation, on the contrary. If businesses have to build plants back in the United States, they will build modern plants which will use as little workers as possible.

This is even more true since american workers are paid more then workers in developping countries. More automation will help the prices of items to be lower than they would have been in less automated american plants, but still much higher then the prices of the same items made in developping countries. So, the number of new jobs won't be that high and the prices of the items will not be as low.

Production moving back in the United States doesn't mean that many new jobs.
Yup. Automation is inevitable. The question is whether we work with it, or against it.

Given the choice, I'd probably rather buy things made in a factory employing workers in a developing country than from a fully automated factory in Canada.
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  #2002  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2016, 11:43 PM
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I'm not sure I want to see how China reacts when the US starts going protectionist...
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  #2003  
Old Posted Dec 4, 2016, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by ToxiK View Post
Protectionism won't stop automation, on the contrary. If businesses have to build plants back in the United States, they will build modern plants which will use as little workers as possible.

This is even more true since american workers are paid more then workers in developping countries. More automation will help the prices of items to be lower than they would have been in less automated american plants, but still much higher then the prices of the same items made in developping countries. So, the number of new jobs won't be that high and the prices of the items will not be as low.

Production moving back in the United States doesn't mean that many new jobs.
Your ignoring the potential ability to tax.Automation will happen it's a question of whether of which country it happens in who gets the tax income
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  #2004  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 3:43 AM
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Imagine crude oil from the Alberta oilsands being taxed 20%?? I highly doubt that would happen. It would mean quite a jump for gas prices in the U.S..
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  #2005  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 3:53 AM
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Originally Posted by 1overcosc View Post
I'm not sure I want to see how China reacts when the US starts going protectionist...
It's pretty clear who replying in this thread has absolutely zero understanding of what it means to be a Canadian or American firm attempting to do business in China. They have one of the most protectionist markets in the world, with tightly managed industries with the government itself injects itself into making sure domestic Chinese industry has the upper hand.

As someone in the technology industry, I (and everybody else from Google to Amazon to Microsoft to Facebook) - knows that as soon as you enter the China market, your technology will be stolen on day one and a magical domestic competitor will materialize and suddenly gain traction and blow you out of the water. That is, if your service doesn't end up being completely blocked by the great firewall.

Manufacturing isn't much better, although with branded goods that have world wide name recognition (such as Ferrari, Burberry, Cartier) you at least have a chance as your recognition preceded government intervention to torpedo your business. An upstart manufacturing enterprise in Ontario? Forget about that, that market might as well not even exist.

Yet, here in Canada and the USA, our markets are absolutely flooded with Chinese goods.

Similar story in Japan. For anyone who visited Japan, how many American cars did you see? How many cars that originated from South Western Ontario did you see? The answer is zero. Yet look at our roads. Look at how Japanese brands have dominated that industry.

So yes, you can make an absurd argument that iPhones might get a tiny bit more expensive (probably not as much as you are projecting, as Apple is already looking into it), but the fact is these trade deals have been massively lopsided for decades before you were even born, and it is very hard to estimate the damage these agreements have made to domestic industry, both in Canada and in the USA.

The USA is in a prime negotiating position to critically examine the actual content of these trade deals and make far reaching changes to how they operate going forward. Contrary to what you are espousing in this thread, highly developed countries like USA and Canada have the most to gain for putting their own domestic manufacturing industry back on a competitive playing field with the rest of the world.

If that means calling out currency manipulators like Japan and China, so be it. If that means writing rules into agreements that call out unfair trade practices such as Japan only letting a few thousand foreign cars into their country a year, so be it. If that means that Canadian Southern Ontario tax breaks to encourage manufacturing investment over other jurisdictions to encourage and tilt production away from the United States are factored into trade deals, so be it.

It's amazing how people can complain out of one side of their mouth about stagnant wages, low quality jobs, a lack of jobs for millennials, etc. and then turn around and turn into a die hard apologist for these trade deals which are directly correlated with the former economic issues.
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  #2006  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 3:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Imagine crude oil from the Alberta oilsands being taxed 20%?? I highly doubt that would happen. It would mean quite a jump for gas prices in the U.S..
That actually results in a max of only a few more cents per liter at the pump (by my quick napkin calculation of ~$50/barrel -> ~$10 in tariff per barrel and an end yield of ~160 liters of usable fuel products per barrel = ~6 cents per liter. But that's assuming a purely Albertan supply, which is far from the case - the rise in prices would be diluted in the US's domestic supply.)

In any case, the US's federal gas tax could be lowered to entirely make up for that tariff for the end user - it would be revenue-neutral overall, yet would slightly favor local oil while slightly hindering Alberta oil.
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  #2007  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 1:31 PM
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NAPE has kicked off a Buy Local campaign. I'm not sure how necessary it is here - in my experience most people seem to have some idea what's "Manufactured Right Here", like the stickers on such products say, and there's definitely widespread support for buying local. Some establishments don't serve Coca Cola products since they closed their local factory, and Scotsburn icecream is starting to disappear for recently announcing the same thing, which seems odd to me as there's no local alternative to stock instead.

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  #2008  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 4:39 PM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
NAPE has kicked off a Buy Local campaign. I'm not sure how necessary it is here - in my experience most people seem to have some idea what's "Manufactured Right Here", like the stickers on such products say, and there's definitely widespread support for buying local. Some establishments don't serve Coca Cola products since they closed their local factory, and Scotsburn icecream is starting to disappear for recently announcing the same thing, which seems odd to me as there's no local alternative to stock instead.

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Originally Posted by Stryker View Post
Your ignoring the potential ability to tax.Automation will happen it's a question of whether of which country it happens in who gets the tax income
Something I said earlier this week.

The reason Scotmans is gone is because they had over a 100 employees' most of which were hand packers.

Automation systems are already in use, and these kinds of jobs are soon to all be gone.

Manufacturing in this province was destroyed by oil money.

Your not gonna hire a manufacturing technologist for 60k a year year when that exact same person is getting offered 100 k by the oil industry.

As a college student who walked into a brick wall, it's hilarious to me how almost criminal the oil industry has been.

People think of manufacturing as this highly repetitive style of work that hasn't change much since the introduction of the model t.

The reality is useful manufacturing is all about keeping up with the newest technologies and machinery.

The boomers/oil industry/protectionists, really ran us over a cliff with this one.
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  #2009  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 5:05 PM
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I sense an opportunity for SHH to add a hand-churned icecream department to his homemade mustard pickle endeavour!
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  #2010  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 5:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Loco101 View Post
Imagine crude oil from the Alberta oilsands being taxed 20%?? I highly doubt that would happen. It would mean quite a jump for gas prices in the U.S..
it would mean nothing to the price of gas in the US. The US market sets the price for oil based upon supply and demand, any Canadian export or commodity tax would come out of the pocket of the Alberta producers. This is what happened in the 70's and 80's when Trudeau Sr., put an export tax on Alberta oil.

If Alberta stopped producing oil (or the tax is so punitive to curtail production) that would drive up US prices as the market would react to a shortage of oil.

And Alberta does collect royalties on oilsands production of 25-40% after project payout, depending on oil price.
http://www.energy.alberta.ca/OilSands/808.asp
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  #2011  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 6:34 PM
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The Canadian Federation of Independent Business has released a study of the most entrepreneurial places in Canada.

Number one is... Rivière-du-Loup.

Number two is... Collingwood, ON

Number three is... St-Georges de Beauce

Six of the top 20 are in Quebec.
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  #2012  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 7:48 PM
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2 new petro chemical project announced for the YEG region. This is the area just NE of the city.
both projects are to utilize about 2000 works per project construction of about 2 years each. The time frame looks like the first will start next year and the second to follow 2 years later. basically shift the workers to the other site.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...gram-1.3882059
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  #2013  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 8:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Acajack View Post
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business has released a study of the most entrepreneurial places in Canada.
Their statistics almost represent an anti-pattern for economic growth though, since they focus on metrics like number of businesses per capita. They don't measure the growth of businesses (I guess to them maybe growing into a large-sized company isn't good because they don't represent those?). They do have a self-reported component, but it seems sketchy to use that to compare different areas (maybe business owners are "hungrier" in some places than others; those places would do worse on the rankings).

Healthy economies have a mix of businesses at different scales, with some turnover in old businesses that aren't competitive anymore and lots of growing firms. American cities generally come closer to this ideal than Canadian cities. What are some big companies in Canada today that weren't around in 2000? It is hard to think of many. There are a few medium-sized tech companies. I don't think there are any large, modern tech companies. Most of Canada's big businesses are uncompetitive monopolistic companies that survive because they are sheltered by the government.

There are lots of economically moribund areas that have huge numbers of small businesses and self-employed people who are relatively unproductive. I'm guessing parts of the Middle East would blow Canadian cities out of the water in this ranking.
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  #2014  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 8:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
2 new petro chemical project announced for the YEG region. This is the area just NE of the city.
both projects are to utilize about 2000 works per project construction of about 2 years each. The time frame looks like the first will start next year and the second to follow 2 years later. basically shift the workers to the other site.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmont...gram-1.3882059
Pretty impressed the NDP executed this plan and got these projects announced so soon. Usually these things have very long lead times and while the incentive program made sense, I was skeptical they could arrange actual projects before their term was up.

One thing I've noticed is that much of the focus seems to be on Edmonton, from these plants - to the bulk of infrastructure spending - to obviously the public sector hiring and so on.

StatsCan reflects that Edmonton's unemployment rate is behaving in general much better than Calgary. Calgary's economic situation is going to have to show signs of regression towards Edmonton over the next couple years if the NDP are going to have a hope of hanging on to a handful of Calgary districts.
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  #2015  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 9:08 PM
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Originally Posted by geotag277 View Post

One thing I've noticed is that much of the focus seems to be on Edmonton, from these plants - to the bulk of infrastructure spending - to obviously the public sector hiring and so on.

.
Feed stock is readily available in the Fort Sask region. That is our Sarnia. There is also a node just south east of Red Deer ( near Joffree) as well.

YEg usually see a different employment Rate than Calgary. Plus Public sectors is not as much as it was in the Laugheed years. Klien gutted the public sector and it has never been as high as before then. We do have a lot of Secondary education institutions which help though. Because Calgary is pretty much a one horse town they see the ups and downs more than YEG. If these 2 Petro Chem plants were not announced you would have seen YEGs unemployment rate jump up. as Construction project finish.
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  #2016  
Old Posted Dec 5, 2016, 10:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Airboy View Post
...
We do have a lot of Secondary education institutions which help though.
...
I’ve always wondered about this point about post-secondary being more important in Edmonton than Calgary as I'm do see it (though I am happy to be corrected).

In Edmonton you have roughly have the follow post-secondary student attendance:

40K – U of A
30K – Grant McKewon
80K – NAIT
11K – NorQuest

Where as in Calgary you have roughly have the follow post-secondary student attendance:

30K – U of C
40K – Mount Royal
75K – SAIT
14K – Bow Vally
1K – ACAD

Giving roughly the same number of post-secondary students – 162K to 160K (note – all numbers from wiki).

And according to the U of A and U of C websites, they both have roughly 5000 employed in academia and admin. So unless the numbers above are wrong, that there are many more post-secondary institutions in Edmonton or Edmonton has a much higher academia to student ratio than Calgary, I am not sure why post-secondary education would be a bigger employer in Edmonton. Any insights??
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  #2017  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:29 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
NAPE has kicked off a Buy Local campaign. I'm not sure how necessary it is here - in my experience most people seem to have some idea what's "Manufactured Right Here", like the stickers on such products say, and there's definitely widespread support for buying local. Some establishments don't serve Coca Cola products since they closed their local factory, and Scotsburn icecream is starting to disappear for recently announcing the same thing, which seems odd to me as there's no local alternative to stock instead.

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The add seems to portray "the good old days" feeling in it. Especially that Purity factory. Sort of reminds me of some of the Schneiders ads that used to be on TV.
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  #2018  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:59 AM
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Very interesting development in the Chinese Yuan today.

It absolutely plunged against the US$ by a whopping 10% and is now trading at levels not seen since the 2008 recession. This is due to a combination of factors but primarily due to continued outflows of capitol, strict regulations to stop it, a very weak Chinese economy growing at about 2% per year as is estimated by most economists, a BoC not willing to prop it up, Trump's electoral win and his promise to come down very on unfair Chinese trade policies and to introduce a major import tax, and China's out control government debt levels which have more than quadrupled in the last 6 years..........these subways aren't built for free.

This could have serious repercussions for Canada. It will certainly hurt the Vancouver real estate market as the price of every house they want to buy to launder their money just rose by 10% overnight. It will make Chinese exports cheaper in Canada hurting our domestic manufacturers and yet making our exports more expensive.


Trudeau, much to my surprise, has illustrated his willingness to stick his ass in the air for Beijing so I don't think he will come to our assistance and stand up to Chinese market dumping.

Last edited by ssiguy; Dec 6, 2016 at 10:09 PM.
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  #2019  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:07 PM
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This could have serious repercussions for Canada. It will certainly hurt the Vancouver real estate market as the price of every house they want to buy to launder their money just rose by 10% overnight.
On the other hand, any Chinese who had the foresight to park a few million CAD into a moldy vacant Point Grey shack just gained 10% overnight.

If people in general think the yuan is headed more down than up, then this will stimulate investment in Van, not cool it.

My first US real estate acquisitions were made at USD/CAD parity. Then in early 2015 we did a blitz of acquisitions with the loonie at 80 cents US... which in retrospect was still good, as it went down to stabilize at ~75 since. But if everyone seemed to expect the exchange rate to further fall to 70 or 65, then 75 right now would be interesting. Might well be the same for the yuan/loonie. You probably don't want to keep extra yuans at the moment, even now after this 10% drop, if you can easily instead hold that wealth in other currencies.
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  #2020  
Old Posted Dec 6, 2016, 5:11 PM
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[QUOTE=shreddog;7642648]I’ve always wondered about this point about post-secondary being more important in Edmonton than Calgary as I'm do see it (though I am happy to be corrected).

In Edmonton you have roughly have the follow post-secondary student attendance:

40K – U of A
30K – Grant McKewon
80K – NAIT
11K – NorQuest

Also Concordia and Kings College.
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