Ridership, Major U.S. Transit Agencies, 1997-2012

[afiggatt]

Originally Posted by shivtim

Thanks for putting this together!
A little bit of explanation for Atlanta: ridership is down because of service cuts. MARTA is funded entirely by a 1% sales tax in the two core counties of the Atlanta metro. It receives essentially no state and very little Federal funding. So when the economy tanked in 2008, MARTA's budget was severely impacted. Many bus routes were cancelled and trains are running on a reduced schedule. It's actually remarkable that ridership didn't drop even more, considering how many bus routes were cut. There's a possibly remedy on the horizon: on July 31st the 10 county metro Atlanta area will be voting on another 1% sales tax that would fund more than $3billion in transit, including 10 miles of light rail, a new MARTA line serving Emory University and the CDC, $600million in upgrades to the existing MARTA heavy rail lines, and two BRT corridors.

The effect cuts in service can be seen in comparing the 2007 1st quarter APTA numbers to the 2012 1st quarter numbers. That is a 5 year step which is useful as 2007 is before the 2008 crash. But the 1997 to 2007 comparisons show little growth in MARTA ridership.

1997 1st qtr MARTA heavy rail = 18.1 million total unlinked passenger trips
2007 1st qtr MARTA heavy rail = 19.25 million
2012 1st qtr MARTA heavy rail = 17.8 million

The MARTA bus numbers took a similar drop from 17.2 million in 1st qtr 2007 to 15.1 million in 1st qr 2012.

For all the heavy rail transit systems in the 15 years from 1st qtr 1997 to 2012, only MARTA shows a significant drop. Staten Island railway was stagnant with a slight drop. Baltimore with its single metro line and declining city population had a modest increase from 3.10 million 1st qtr 1997 to 3.86 million in 2012.

The service cuts have to be hurting the economy of Atlanta, even if the anti-transit groups refuse to acknowledge it. Hope the sale tax referendum increase passes, so Atlanta can invest in transportation infrastructure, but this is not the best political and economic climate to get enough votes.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by edluva

LASF I'm also skeptical of the impact the zoning and subsequent gentrification will have on population, however positively metro rail would impact zoning for high density development.

It's been shown in other cities time and again that high density zoning only brings in high end developments with small households. look at chicagos population bust, in lieu of it's condo boom.

For example, gentrification of la's Westlake district should it ever happen will only lower the population density. If anything a condo boom will at best balance out the loss of the probably illegal two family-per-unit Latino occupants responsible for much of the extreme density in that part of la.

ya, you are right, especially in areas like Westlake where its not uncommon to have 5 people living in 800 square feet. i guess i was picturing an area like mar vista going from 1500 square foot sfr's to 5 story apartment / condo complexes.

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by Crawford

Oh, no question. LA should see much, much larger increases in ridership growth than the other major U.S. cities (excepting NYC). I could see LA with increases significantly greater than that of, say, DC & Chicago combined.

But I do think that bus, not rail, will be the primary determining factor, and I think working class immigrants will drive this growth. LA is a bus town, and the new rail lines are almost all low capacity light rail. They likely won't have the ridership numbers to make a significant dent in the bus dominance.

And, in LA, I wager the bus is heavily working class immigrant or second generation. I think immigration trends play a huge factor in ridership going forward, and not just for LA.

I think LA was a bus town, but now with the ever growing rail network, its becoming more of a rail town.

Once the expo line is complete in 2015 / 2016 (DTLA to Santa Monica) ridership will be about 70 - 80,000 for that line. The purple line extension will easily add 75,00 - 100,000 and the downtown connector subway will add 15 - 20,000 boardings. Now, i do agree that the gold line extension and the crenshaw line will not add as much (probably 40,000 or so combined), but once the crenshaw line is extended to hollywood / highland, that line will be huge.

[JDRCRASH]

Originally Posted by Crawford

I don't see why rezoning would have signficant impact on population growth or transit ridership. People don't have babies, or move to a new geography, because of a rezoning.

I understand what your saying Crawford. But you have to realize that the scale of rezoning i'm talking about is going from plain old empty lots, parking lots, and even 1-2 story sfh's, to apartments and condos in the range of at least 3-5 stories (it's increasingly closer to 10 as you get into Hollywood and DTLA).

And the majority of these new developments are being focused around 1 mile of existing and future train stops. Now that does seem like quite a distance to get to a station, particularly in a city with habits like LA. But when you add in LA's existing high bus ridership, along with a growing bicycle network, light-rail and heavy-rail ridership is almost assuredly going to increase.

And here's a fairly recent article that goes into detail about apartment vacancy rates in different LA neighborhoods, which might also play a factor into ridership in certain neighborhoods as new buildings replace old ones. The numbers, tbh, are a little shockingly optimistic.

http://adnergroup.blogspot.com/2012/...-mode-los.html

[LAofAnaheim]

Originally Posted by afiggatt

LA is certainly going to see significant growth in transit ridership in next 15 years as more lines get built and start service. However, I gather Denver, Salt Lake City, Portland OR, Houston also have plans for significant rail expansion.

Even as Denver, SLC, Portland and Houston continue their significant expansions, they will be no match for LA's expansion, especially, as pointed out, when the rail enters the Westside, which is the 2nd/3rd largest concentration of jobs in LA after downtown and Century City. LA is a very dense city with little to no rail transit in some areas. With Measure R, we'll have a subway in Beverly Hills, Century City, Westwood/UCLA and light rail to Santa Monica, Westside, Crenshaw and a downtown connector. All significant expansions that will exponentially grow our rail network. In 20 years, I'd say that LA will be within the Chicago, SF and Washington DC daily rail ridership; maybe even 3rd behind Chicago?

[LosAngelesSportsFan]

Originally Posted by LAofAnaheim

Even as Denver, SLC, Portland and Houston continue their significant expansions, they will be no match for LA's expansion, especially, as pointed out, when the rail enters the Westside, which is the 2nd/3rd largest concentration of jobs in LA after downtown and Century City. LA is a very dense city with little to no rail transit in some areas. With Measure R, we'll have a subway in Beverly Hills, Century City, Westwood/UCLA and light rail to Santa Monica, Westside, Crenshaw and a downtown connector. All significant expansions that will exponentially grow our rail network. In 20 years, I'd say that LA will be within the Chicago, SF and Washington DC daily rail ridership; maybe even 3rd behind Chicago?

isnt Chicago third right now after NYC and DC?

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by LosAngelesSportsFan

isnt Chicago third right now after NYC and DC?

Yes, DC is 2nd and Chicago is 3rd in rail ridership.

Washington Metro has far higher rail ridership than Chicago CTA, but if you include commuter rail for both cities, the cities are pretty close. Just counting rail, of course.

If you look at overall transit ridership, I don't know if LA or Chicago is 2nd. Probably LA if you're including all the suburban transit agencies.

[Yankee]

New York got 4.2 million new riders? Is this city limits or metro area? If the former, I find it hard to believe, half the city started using transit where it wasn't before? Doesn't make sense.

[Crawford]

Originally Posted by Yankee

New York got 4.2 million new riders? Is this city limits or metro area? If the former, I find it hard to believe, half the city started using transit where it wasn't before? Doesn't make sense.

I don't know if it's true or not, but keep in mind that something like 60% of heavy rail passengers in the U.S. ride MTA and related agencies in the NYC area (and even higher % if just comparing subway systems), so even a relatively small change in ridership will result in a huge number of trip changes, probably dwarfing all the other major agencies combined.

And the APTA stats aren't unique riders. They're transit trips.

[afiggatt]

Originally Posted by LAofAnaheim

Even as Denver, SLC, Portland and Houston continue their significant expansions, they will be no match for LA's expansion, especially, as pointed out, when the rail enters the Westside, which is the 2nd/3rd largest concentration of jobs in LA after downtown and Century City. LA is a very dense city with little to no rail transit in some areas. With Measure R, we'll have a subway in Beverly Hills, Century City, Westwood/UCLA and light rail to Santa Monica, Westside, Crenshaw and a downtown connector. All significant expansions that will exponentially grow our rail network. In 20 years, I'd say that LA will be within the Chicago, SF and Washington DC daily rail ridership; maybe even 3rd behind Chicago?

LA will certainly see major growth in the number of rail transit passengers in the next several decades. However, correct me if I am wrong, the 15+ years out plans are to have only 2 heavy rail transit lines (Red and Purple). The rest of the rail transit lines will be light rail with varying degrees of grade separation and peak capacity. Heavy rail transit aka subways with 4-8 car long trainsets, while expensive to build, can handle a lot of traffic. That much of the system will be light rail lines may hold down the total rail ridership numbers from what it might have been if LA had opted to build several more heavy rail transit lines over light rail.

The DC Metro system ridership number growth has leveled off in recent years. Some of it can be attributed to completion of the original system in 2001 and the last expansion in 2004. Some of the slow growth can be attributed to the aftermath of the 2009 Red Line collision, rate increases, and the current 6 year $5 billion Capital Improvement Program. The capital improvement program appears to driving many in DC and inner communities crazy who take the Metro to get around on weekends crazy because of the constant series of weekend work projects shutting down stations, closing off sections of lines with busitutions, single tracking, never ending escalator repairs. But the high level of catch-up maintenance and replacement work will come to an end in a few years.

The DC Metro system will see expansion with 23 mile Silver Line due to be completed by 2017-2018 and the odds fair to middling on the light rail Purple Line being in service by circa 2022. But those are expansions of the system. What has been interesting to observe in the DC area (as someone who lives in the middle suburbs) has been the profound shift in construction of residential and mixed use projects since the bubble began to deflate in circa 2005-2006. Much of the new construction has shifted from the outer edges to TOD projects in the city and inner DC metro area inside the Beltway. Many of the these projects and plans are either near Metro stations or are along planned streetcar and transitway corridors that lead to Metro stations. Tysons Corner in VA is in the early stages of a major redevelopment tied to the Silver Line. From what I see, DC is in a TOD boom that may not be getting much attention outside of the DC metro region.

The net end result of all these TOD projects and communities is going to be a lot more people living around DC Metro stations who use it on evenings and weekends, not just to commute to work. The DC Metro system is going to see a fair amount of ridership growth in the next 10 years from all the new apartments, condos, townhouses, office buildings clustered around the Metro station. Throw in high gas prices and the Orange Crush may become the Orange Puree.

So, LA, Chicago, SF, Boston (not to be overlooked) for heavy + light rail transit totals will be trying to catch up with a moving target for DC for second place.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by afiggatt

...
From what I see, DC is in a TOD boom that may not be getting much attention outside of the DC metro region.

The net end result of all these TOD projects and communities is going to be a lot more people living around DC Metro stations who use it on evenings and weekends, not just to commute to work. The DC Metro system is going to see a fair amount of ridership growth in the next 10 years from all the new apartments, condos, townhouses, office buildings clustered around the Metro station. Throw in high gas prices and the Orange Crush may become the Orange Puree.

So, LA, Chicago, SF, Boston (not to be overlooked) for heavy + light rail transit totals will be trying to catch up with a moving target for DC for second place.

I'm hopeful under Rahm we have some TOD friendliness here in Chicago. Rail ridership is already at an alltime high here at many stations, but there are still sooooo many that aren't. Ones in dangerous areas are obviously losing riders, but there are even a lot in very nice areas that would greatly benefit from real, honest TOD intensification. Fingers crossed.

[afiggatt]

Originally Posted by Yankee

New York got 4.2 million new riders? Is this city limits or metro area? If the former, I find it hard to believe, half the city started using transit where it wasn't before? Doesn't make sense.

NYC has had remarkable growth in ridership for their subway system over the past 15 years. These are a return to numbers the subway system had many decades ago, so it is really a revitalization or return to heavy use of the system. MTA reported a total of 1.6 billion passenger trips on the NYC subway in 2011 to put the NYC subway system into perspective.

The numbers below are for heavy rail transit only in number of unlinked passenger trips in millions. These numbers are from the APTA statistics archive webpage which has quarterly stats going back to 1996. Lots of interesting info in those PDF files. The light rail numbers, as previously noted are incomplete, in some of the quarterly reports so I'm sticking to the heavy rail only.

I pulled the numbers for the 1st quarters at 5 year spacings to build on the year step numbers that started this thread. These are the total number of reported trips in millions for the entire quarter of January, February, March so it is not just weekday traffic. The columns are the quarter & year, NYC, and everyone else together (from WMATA to Cleveland).

Date              NYC       Everybody Else
1st Qtr 1997    332.3M    195.4M
1st Qtr 2002    434.7M    222.2M
1st Qtr 2007    463.5M    221.1M
1st Qtr 2012    635.0M    286.6M

Worthwhile to post the heavy rail transit numbers in those 4 periods for WMATA, CTA, MBTA, BART, PATH, SEPTA? The weekday average is not in the 1997 report, but is there in the later reports. The light rail would be interesting as well, but MBTA and SF appear to be have been erratic in reporting.