Quote:
Originally Posted by Truenorth00
I think this is ultimately going to hinge on what the extra ridership from going faster means for the overall business case. With HSR, Alstom needs to be air travel competitive. That means an absolute maximum travel time of 3-3.5 hrs between Toronto and Montreal, via Peterborough and Ottawa. That also means fares aiming to undercut air travel, not so much aiming to replace driving.
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The Alstom proposal is still very preliminary but, as it is sketched out, it doesn't really make much sense. The only city pairings that must be flight-competitive are Toronto-Ottawa and Toronto-Montreal. Everything else is either within driving distance or has trivial demand (maybe QC-Ottawa/Gatineau is on the edge). My guess is that the majority of people who fly to Montreal from Quebec City or Ottawa do so to connect on to another flight at YUL; most people for whom Montreal is the ultimate destination from those cities just drive.
So it's weird to see the Alstom proposal prioritize 300 km/h infrastructure between QC and Montreal, which offers relatively little in the way of time savings compared to a 200 km/h alignment with proper bypasses of Trois-Rivieres.
Some of it might be due to the fact that CDPQ infra is the money behind this proposal, and they'd probably invest that cap ex in Quebec rather than Ontario.
Also, 144 km/h service between Havelock and Toronto, which is an already straight alignment through flat farmland relatively far from existing development seems like a missed opportunity. It's a crude map with few details, but it seems like it'll use the old alignment through Peterborough which will force trains to stop there. I think more than 90% of all trips with Peterborough as the O/D will be for Toronto, so it would be more efficient if Peterborians could rely on a frequent train that shuttles back and forth to Union and doesn't result in time-sensitive business travelers from Ottawa or Montreal heading to Toronto being forced to make a stop there.