The Relationship Between Subways and Urban Growth

[M II A II R II K]

The Relationship Between Subways and Urban Growth


Jun 2, 2016

By Richard Florida

Read More: http://www.citylab.com/commute/2016/...growth/485006/

PDF Study: http://individual.utoronto.ca/marcog...nt/Subways.pdf

In the major cities of the world, subway systems are typically seen as a means to foster density, reduce reliance on cars, mitigate sprawl, and provide residents with access to affordable transportation. Recently, subways have also been seen as contributors to gentrification, as the advantaged and affluent colonize locations near stations to reduce their commutes and save time.

- How do subways really affect urban development? To what degree do they promote density and centralization? A new study by my University of Toronto colleague Marco Gonzalez-Navarro and Matthew A. Turner of Brown University helps to flesh out this relationship by looking at the effect of subway location and expansion on transit ridership, population growth, and the development of urban areas. To get at this, the authors developed a unique data set describing all subway systems in the world.

- While Americans frequently ride on subways and transit lines built at the turn of the 20th century, the study finds a substantial uptick in subway construction since the 1970s and ‘80s in cities around the world. In total, the report identifies 7,886 operational subway stations and 10,672 kilometers (over 6,600 miles) of subways across 138 cities as of 2010. Of these, 53 subway systems are located in Asia, 40 in Europe, 30 in North America, 14 in South America, and just one in Africa.

- New York tops the list with 489 stations, followed by Seoul (360), Paris (299), London (267), and Tokyo (255). Based on the table, it’s clear that subways and subway stations do follow population size. But note the considerable variation in the number of subway stations per 100,000 people. New York, Seoul, Paris, and London all have more subways stops than the three largest cities in the world: Tokyo, Delhi, and Mexico City.

- All together, European subway systems serve an average of 32,000 people per station. Over two-thirds of large European cities have subway systems, compared to less than a third in North America, less than a fourth in South America, and around 15 percent in Asia. --- Contrary to conventional wisdom, the study also finds that subways do not necessarily spur population growth. Even though larger cities tend to house more extensive subway systems, the study finds no correlation between the size of a system and the size of a city.

- Although Asia houses the majority of the world’s large cities, and South America has the largest cities on average, both continents cannot compete with subway service in Europe and North America. This may have something to do with the fact that subways in Europe and cities like New York were built before auto use was common, at a time when cities were smaller. By contrast, Asia has undergone rapid urbanization in recent years and is more reliant on its cars and roads.

- The study takes a close look at the 61 cities that opened subway systems between 1970 and 1990. In the five years before these new subways systems opened, cities saw their populations grow by around 12 percent. But, in the five years after, growth rates declined to a mere 8 percent. The study finds a similar decline in population growth in both the 20 years before and after the subway systems opened. As the authors note, “large cities build and expand subway networks but … these networks do not cause changes in subsequent population growth.”

- Although one might expect cities with more extensive transportation to be denser and more concentrated in and around their downtown cores, the study does not find this to be the case. Instead, it finds that cities with larger subway systems are less centralized. In fact, the addition of one standard subway line causes a 0.5 percent decrease in centralization (measured by the concentration of satellite light) in the city center. This effect is still quite a bit smaller than that of roads and highways, which, according to other research, account for up to a 9 percent decrease in centralization.

- Finally, the study finds that subways do in fact lead to an increase in mass transit ridership. In a descriptive cross-sectional analysis, the authors point out that cities with larger subway systems not only have more subway riders, but more bus and public transit riders in general. But, when it comes to subway expansions, there seems to be little effect on bus ridership, despite an overall increase in public transit ridership. A 10 percent increase in subway expansion results in a 6 percent increase in subway ridership, according to the study.

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[The Chemist]

Their numbers for Shanghai and Beijing are wrong. Shanghai has 364 stations and Beijing has 334.

[skyscraper]

Originally Posted by The Chemist

Their numbers for Shanghai and Beijing are wrong. Shanghai has 364 stations and Beijing has 334.

deleted post

[1Boston]

It may not be centralized around the city center but it is centralized around the transit corridors, just by looking at those light maps. The more miles of stations you have..the more miles of dense urban areas there are. Also boston's number of stations (74) only accounts for the greenline light rail stations...none of the heavy rail stations.