Is there ever going to be another "new, big city" in the US or Canada?

[James Bond Agent 007]

Often I've wondered, and the comments in the Phoenix thread made me wonder further, is there ever going to be another "new, big" city in the US? Or Canada for that matter?

By that I mean, not a completely new city, of course, but a city that's maybe small or middle-sized at most, as Phoenix was 50+ years ago, but is erstwhile not much to note, but that becomes big enough to harbor multiple big league sport teams, has at least 3 or 4 million in the metro, etc.

I suppose Charlotte is kinda-sorta in the process of doing that, and maybe Vegas too. But those have either been at least kinda-sorta big for a while (in the case of Charlotte) or have been a prominent city for ... other reasons (Vegas) in spite of relatively modest size. Maybe you could put Tampa Bay in this category, too.

Aside from those I can't really identify any city that has "the next Phoenix" written all over it. Could it happen to Albuquerque? Or maybe Omaha? Or Boise? Or Sioux Falls? Or Columbia, SC?

There are some other cities that some people might argue, but while they're definitely in that never-never land between "medium" and "big" city, in spite of what may be hefty growth, for some reason I just don't see them becoming much more "prominent" than they already are. I'm thinking of cities like Nashville, San Antonio, and maybe Jacksonville and Salt Lake. Don't ask me why, but even if those cities got a lot bigger they'd still be more of a 2nd or 3rd tier kind of place. I could be wrong.

Canadian cities I have no opinions about, but we could probably discuss those as well.

[pdxtex]

you need to help us condense your question a bit. if you mean, will there be any cities that rise to a new found prominence they didn't have 20 years ago, then yes, lots of cities will probably meet that criteria. all of the ones you mention in fact are poised to be modern day boomtown if their population trends continue....have you seen how many people have moved to san Antonio in the last decade? lots! if you alternately ask, will some new city rise from the dust and become a new thriving settlement, no, that probably wont happen. American cities all over are definitely urbanizing though. off the top of my head, Cleveland is the only major metro that actually lost population during the last census, and even then it was fairly small.

[James Bond Agent 007]

OK, fair enough. I don't mean just get bigger, but big enough to have not just 1 but at least 2 (and maybe 3) major league sports teams, when they don't have any now. Big enough to have several Fortune 500 HQ's when they have none now, or maybe just 1 or 2. Stuff like that. I know it's a bit nebulous but I don't know how else to put it.

50+ years ago Phoenix was just a middling-sized city in the desert. Now it's a major metropolis. Could San Antonio someday be the next Phoenix? Maybe, but in that case I think it's always going to be overshadowed by Dallas and Houston (and maybe that's not even a fair way to judge it). Basically I'm wondering if there's going to be any other city that's going to "do a Phoenix" and go from a piddling 375K metro to 4.5 million in 60 years (numbers). I think maybe Charlotte and Tampa Bay are in the process of doing something like that, but I guess I'm more interested in a city that's as un-prominent now as Phoenix was in 1950 (like maybe Boise or Omaha) rather than a city that's already halfway there (like Tampa or Charlotte). Hope that makes sense.

[ChargerCarl]

No, unless we open the floodgates of immigration from Asia and Africa.

[pdxtex]

the biggest population gainers will definitely all be southern cities. were seeing that play out before our eyes. lots of northern black are returning to the south and texas cities keep getting bigger and bigger. i think tampa and orlando are quietly going to become very large, very quickly. the orlando metro is as big as portland, oregon now and tampa is growing like crazy. sooner or later, tampa bay, orlando and south florida are all going to become one giant florida mega region.

[hammersklavier]

I suspect the ongoing affordability crisis on the West Coast is due to a general lack of urban supply ... I wouldn't be surprised if Boise and several other well-situated cities in the Interior West started to really rapidly grow as people who got priced out of the Bay Area and moved to Portland or Denver get priced out of those cities, too. If education proves important as a jobs hub, I'd have my eyes on Fort Collins (Colo. St.), Laramie (U. Wyo.), Missoula (U. Montana), Bozeman (Montana State), Pocatello (Idaho St.), Pullman/Moscow (Wazzu/U. Idaho), and Spokane (Gonzaga). Other considerations will likely cause clustering near the mountain fronts and along the key transportation corridors as well.

[Cirrus]

Of course there will be. These things always change over time. Here are some obvious contenders:

The Gulf Coast booms:
Unless climate change ruins the coast, it's a natural place for the same kind of massive growth that's completely sprawled out Florida. And if, as many people think could happen, Houston becomes America's next megacity, then there will be spillover from that. Beaumont, Lafayette, Mobile, Corpus Christi, Brownsville... all future Tampas waiting to happen.

The interior west fills in:
The interior west is gigantic. Assuming it keeps growing, it's impractical for its handful of big cities to remain the only big cities. Eventually more are inevitable. Boise, Saint George, Grand Junction... prime contenders.

The Dakota oil towns:
The boom/bust cycle there will keep up, with more booms than busts, until the oil shale runs out. Before that happens, maybe one of those towns becomes a city. Bismarck, Williston, Minot, Fargo. Who knows.

[James Bond Agent 007]

Originally Posted by ChargerCarl

No, unless we open the floodgates of immigration from Asia and Africa.

I suppose that's a good point, since US population isn't growing that fast anymore.

[DenseCityPlease]

Based on the economic and cultural patterns we've seen in urban migration, I foresee that over the next 20 years or so Boise will begin to resemble a sort of Colorado style educated-liberal-enviro-outdoorsy-active-high growth urban metro that may end up as a cheaper, smaller, "diet" version of Denver.

It could be the next poster child city inheriting the mantle from Portland as the more affordable and charming second tier alternative for progressives and urbanists, as Portland is already well on its way to following in Seattle's footsteps into the big leagues.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

I suppose that's a good point, since US population isn't growing that fast anymore.

we added nearly 30 million last census. 10% gain in population seem pretty strong. concerning interior west cities, get there now before the mongel hordes do. spokane on paper should be way more expensive. its got all the leisure opportunities of a place like bend, oregon yet its larger, has two research universities and nearly identical weather, and its 1/3 the cost. id move there myself if the job market were a bit stronger.

[pdxtex]

Originally Posted by DenseCityPlease

Based on the economic and cultural patterns we've seen in urban migration, I foresee that over the next 20 years or so Boise will begin to resemble a sort of Colorado style educated-liberal-enviro-outdoorsy-active-high growth urban metro that may end up as a cheaper, smaller, "diet" version of Denver.

It could be the next poster child city inheriting the mantle from Portland as the more affordable and charming second tier alternative for progressives and urbanists, as Portland is already well on its way to following in Seattle's footsteps into the big leagues.

boise is already all of those things. spokane will be the next version of this...

[James Bond Agent 007]

Yeah, but will Boise ever get to 4 million and two big league sport teams? I suppose you never know, but I doubt it.

[isaidso]

As no one has rhymed in on Canada yet, I'll put my 2 cents in.

Canada really only has 3 big cities (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) so looking beyond those the obvious choice is Calgary. Both Alberta cities (Edmonton, Calgary) have been growing rapidly for most of the last 80 years. Only recently have they grown large enough to attract big city amenities.

They're already home to pro hockey and pro football. They're building LRT, new museums, 2nd universities, and have urban planning policies that encourage increased density. Where before they had lack lustre sleepy downtowns one can see the emergence of vibrant downtowns. They're wealthy, have young populations, exist is a pro business jurisdiction (Alberta), and have a can-do ambitious citizenry. I wouldn't be surprised to see MLS and/or NBA in one/both cities in the next 25 years.

Some may argue that they're oil and gas dependent but there are signs everywhere that both are slowly moving away from dependence on energy. Calgary has a large professional services sector that's looking for life beyond oil. The University of Alberta in Edmonton is a big research institution determined to move the province beyond resource extraction.

That said, I'd put my money on Calgary over Edmonton. It may not be the provincial capital but it's long been politically influential. Calgary and Vancouver are the big airport hubs in western Canada and seem early on in their growth trajectory. 3 million in metro Calgary within 25 years? Possibly.

Calgary, Alberta

[bobdreamz]

Originally Posted by pdxtex

the biggest population gainers will definitely all be southern cities. were seeing that play out before our eyes. lots of northern black are returning to the south and texas cities keep getting bigger and bigger. i think tampa and orlando are quietly going to become very large, very quickly. the orlando metro is as big as portland, oregon now and tampa is growing like crazy. sooner or later, tampa bay, orlando and south florida are all going to become one giant florida mega region.

That seems to be already happening.....


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...space_NASA.jpg

The worst out of the three city / metros will be Orlando which has become a sprawling suburban mess in every direction radiating from it's tiny downtown which is urban and then just miles & miles of strip malls.
It's quite horrendous now.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by James Bond Agent 007

Often I've wondered, and the comments in the Phoenix thread made me wonder further, is there ever going to be another "new, big" city in the US? Or Canada for that matter?

By that I mean, not a completely new city, of course, but a city that's maybe small or middle-sized at most, as Phoenix was 50+ years ago, but is erstwhile not much to note, but that becomes big enough to harbor multiple big league sport teams, has at least 3 or 4 million in the metro, etc.

I suppose Charlotte is kinda-sorta in the process of doing that, and maybe Vegas too. But those have either been at least kinda-sorta big for a while (in the case of Charlotte) or have been a prominent city for ... other reasons (Vegas) in spite of relatively modest size. Maybe you could put Tampa Bay in this category, too.

Aside from those I can't really identify any city that has "the next Phoenix" written all over it. Could it happen to Albuquerque? Or maybe Omaha? Or Boise? Or Sioux Falls? Or Columbia, SC?

There are some other cities that some people might argue, but while they're definitely in that never-never land between "medium" and "big" city, in spite of what may be hefty growth, for some reason I just don't see them becoming much more "prominent" than they already are. I'm thinking of cities like Nashville, San Antonio, and maybe Jacksonville and Salt Lake. Don't ask me why, but even if those cities got a lot bigger they'd still be more of a 2nd or 3rd tier kind of place. I could be wrong.

Canadian cities I have no opinions about, but we could probably discuss those as well.

I started a thread like this a while back. The consensus was that it would be a resort town (like Vegas and Miami over the last 75 years) or maybe a place like St. George, Utah. STG is rumored to be a haven for, putting it politely, "Alternative Christian Lifestyles," and I don't necessarily mean gay marriage.

But either a resort town or a place that harbors and welcomes alternative lifestyles. Overgrown suburbs that mature into major cities or benefit from being close to one's sprawl, such as San Bernardino/Riverside are also possible.

Most people don't farm anymore, plus medical facilities and jobs are mostly found in already developed regions, so there's no reason to live out in the middle of nowhere unless you just love that type of lifestyle.

[ThePhun1]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Of course there will be. These things always change over time. Here are some obvious contenders:

The Gulf Coast booms:
Unless climate change ruins the coast, it's a natural place for the same kind of massive growth that's completely sprawled out Florida. And if, as many people think could happen, Houston becomes America's next megacity, then there will be spillover from that. Beaumont, Lafayette, Mobile, Corpus Christi, Brownsville... all future Tampas waiting to happen.

The interior west fills in:
The interior west is gigantic. Assuming it keeps growing, it's impractical for its handful of big cities to remain the only big cities. Eventually more are inevitable. Boise, Saint George, Grand Junction... prime contenders.

The Dakota oil towns:
The boom/bust cycle there will keep up, with more booms than busts, until the oil shale runs out. Before that happens, maybe one of those towns becomes a city. Bismarck, Williston, Minot, Fargo. Who knows.

The only way Beaumont-Port Arthur will grow much is if it gets more cross-commuter traffic with Houston. There's a gulf, no pun intended, between the metro areas of lightly populated areas, so it's not as if the Houston/Galveston sprawl is inching toward that direction. A bridge or two over Galveston Bay wouldn't hurt.

Brownsville might as well be Mexico. Corpus' growth will very much be tied in with San Antonio's while Lafayette is more closely tied with New Orleans and Baton Rouge, let alone Mobile, which may as well be Jacksonville. Houston's sphere of influence ends at Lake Charles, which maybe a century from now will merge with Beaumont and Port Arthur if the stars align.

[10023]

Miami is already enough of a sprawl fest, away from certain areas, so I can't imagine how bad Orlando and Tampa will be.

[hammersklavier]

Originally Posted by isaidso

As no one has rhymed in on Canada yet, I'll put my 2 cents in.

Canada really only has 3 big cities (Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver) so looking beyond those the obvious choice is Calgary. Both Alberta cities (Edmonton, Calgary) have been growing rapidly for most of the last 80 years. Only recently have they grown large enough to attract big city amenities.

They're already home to pro hockey and pro football. They're building LRT, new museums, 2nd universities, and have urban planning policies that encourage increased density. Where before they had lack lustre sleepy downtowns one can see the emergence of vibrant downtowns. They're wealthy, have young populations, exist is a pro business jurisdiction (Alberta), and have a can-do ambitious citizenry. I wouldn't be surprised to see MLS and/or NBA in one/both cities in the next 25 years.

Some may argue that they're oil and gas dependent but there are signs everywhere that both are slowly moving away from dependence on energy. Calgary has a large professional services sector that's looking for life beyond oil. The University of Alberta in Edmonton is a big research institution determined to move the province beyond resource extraction.

That said, I'd put my money on Calgary over Edmonton. It may not be the provincial capital but it's long been politically influential. Calgary and Vancouver are the big airport hubs in western Canada and seem early on in their growth trajectory. 3 million in metro Calgary within 25 years? Possibly.

Calgary, Alberta

Based on that picture, I'd say Calgary's already made it as a big city.

[10023]

Yes Calgary definitely punches above its weight in terms of skyline. A strong core industry and no period of urban abandonment/white flight certainly help.

[SpawnOfVulcan]

Originally Posted by Cirrus

Of course there will be. These things always change over time. Here are some obvious contenders:

The Gulf Coast booms:
Unless climate change ruins the coast, it's a natural place for the same kind of massive growth that's completely sprawled out Florida. And if, as many people think could happen, Houston becomes America's next megacity, then there will be spillover from that. Beaumont, Lafayette, Mobile, Corpus Christi, Brownsville... all future Tampas waiting to happen.

The interior west fills in:
The interior west is gigantic. Assuming it keeps growing, it's impractical for its handful of big cities to remain the only big cities. Eventually more are inevitable. Boise, Saint George, Grand Junction... prime contenders.

The Dakota oil towns:
The boom/bust cycle there will keep up, with more booms than busts, until the oil shale runs out. Before that happens, maybe one of those towns becomes a city. Bismarck, Williston, Minot, Fargo. Who knows.

You already have a situation where the areas between Mobile and Pensacola area filling in rapidly. Combining the two metros, you already have 1.1 Million. The area between Mobile and the Mississippi Gulf Coast is starting to fill in. With all three of those areas, the total stands at 1.5 million. What happens when those gaps really fill in?