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Originally Posted by Lobotomizer
I had the same thoughts. I unfortunately don't know where to access that data. I'm sure a lot of people moving out of Travis County did indeed stay in the metro, but I could only speculate as to the percentage.
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Suburban, master-planned home communities are where the massive growth potential lies. Infill typically comes with a decrease in population, as household sizes shrink.
I am not as worried as others here about the long-term projections versus the long-term reality. Projections are infrastructure blind, and Williamson + Hays do not have the forthcoming infrastructure in the planning phases to support a majority of the metro population. Master planned communities follow the infrastructure just as much as they follow the jobs, and the vast majority of the infrastructure able to support these master planned developments has been, is, and will be happening in Travis County. Major developments will also likely cool somewhat in the 35 corridor during the reconstruction, and shift to the 130 corridor, which will be a relative boon for Travis and Caldwell.
The entire sector of town bounded by 130, 35, 45, and 71 is just getting started with development and the area around Tesla (the 130/183/290/71 sector of town, which includes the Dog’s Head) has yet to start booming as well. The sector including Pflugerville and northeast Austin (45/290/130/35) is still half empty. Manor has yet to truly boom. These are not “in-city” areas, but they are within Travis County. And that doesn’t include any development outside of 130 in the county or in the western hills (which will happen).
Within 30 years there will be little to no farmland left within the outer loop (45/130/620) and there’s easily enough land to absorb another 300-400k population just in greenfield developments within the loop. Plus infill. Plus developments outside of the loop. But again, hardly any of this is in Austin FPJ, and it is important to keep the growth narrative going as long as possible and so our recent zoning changes could pay dividends as well.
As for Williamson, there’s a bit more juice left in the 35/45/130 Round Rock/Georgetown sector and about half of the 35/183/45/29 sector left. There’ll be more booming in the 183 corridor outside of 29 (Liberty Hill) and in the 79 corridor outside of 130 (Hutto, Taylor) as well as 130 corridor developments (development) and Jarrell on 35. I’d also look to Florence as a potential late bloomer. All of this, though, doesn’t add up to outgrowing Travis given Travis’s also ample opportunities.
Hays: unless they end up with a major employer or facility, growth there is going to be contingent upon US-290 developments in and around Dripping Springs and what happens in San Marcos going forward. There’s still plenty of room left in the Kyle and Buda sector but the infrastructure growing pains are difficult and problematic and that’s gonna end up slowing things down there once development reaches SH-21. Wimberley and Woodcreek are a minor growth pocket as well. I keep waiting for San Marcos to land some major employers and manufacturing facilities but it seems like it just won’t happen. Genuinely, I want the Austin/San Antonio region to develop more of its cities into actual cities rather than just suburbs. Georgetown, Round Rock, San Marcos, and New Braunfels all need to step up to the plate and put some urban heft and distance between themselves and the actual regional suburbs (Cedar Park, Kyle, Buda, Dripping Springs, Bastrop, Manor, Elgin, etc.).
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