PHILADELPHIA | Lowrise/General Developments Thread

[CCGuy]

Once autonomous car fleets are here- just a matter of time- parking will be a non-issue. So the question is when do we start planning for the shared fleet future? Think of all the advantages of urban living without individual ownership of cars. The space that will be saved! We are very close technology wise- and it should make sense economically. So 5-10 years to moderate adoption? We should start planning with this future in mind now.

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by CCGuy

Once autonomous car fleets are here- just a matter of time- parking will be a non-issue. So the question is when do we start planning for the shared fleet future? Think of all the advantages of urban living without individual ownership of cars. The space that will be saved! We are very close technology wise- and it should make sense economically. So 5-10 years to moderate adoption? We should start planning with this future in mind now.

So the sales pitch to prospective homebuyers is — hey don’t worry about parking today because in 10 years, you’ll be fine. 🤷🏼♂️

Reality is Philly is growing and we need to be able to meet the demands of today. If trends change then we can convert those extra parking spaces into green area, extra housing, etc at that point.

[Knight Hospitaller]

Originally Posted by CCGuy

Once autonomous car fleets are here- just a matter of time- parking will be a non-issue.

I was thinking the same thing. I wouldn't need a second car if I could go point to point on demand (at a rate that would be less than car ownership). I'm sure two to four passenger models will be ubiquitous. The question is how available vehicles for larger numbers of passengers will be. I also agree with the comment that this is still pie in the sky.

[jsbrook]

Buffaloe Exchange is coming to the Post Bros building on the 1500 block of Chestnut:

http://www.phillymag.com/property/20...d-walnuts-too/

A respectable upgrade on the dollar store that was there. I'm not sure, but I believe there is a second tenant that's a sit-down restaurant. That was part of the original plan, but not sure if there are one or two retail spots and whether Buffaloe Exchange replaces or joins it.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

So the sales pitch to prospective homebuyers is — hey don’t worry about parking today because in 10 years, you’ll be fine. 🤷🏼♂️

Reality is Philly is growing and we need to be able to meet the demands of today. If trends change then we can convert those extra parking spaces into green area, extra housing, etc at that point.

That is true, and while not directly applicable to the type of parking offered here, smart developers are looking to that future. Many developers are building garages with flat floors (no incline) with an eye towards future apartment conversion. Not sure of the exact logistics of that (where they are providing for cars to drive up), but they are doing it.

[AbortedWalrus]

Originally Posted by Knight Hospitaller

I was thinking the same thing. I wouldn't need a second car if I could go point to point on demand (at a rate that would be less than car ownership). I'm sure two to four passenger models will be ubiquitous. The question is how available vehicles for larger numbers of passengers will be. I also agree with the comment that this is still pie in the sky.

It's not really all that pie in the sky anymore. Waymo has been operating a Level 4 self-driving fleet in Phoenix for months. Level 4 means literally zero driver intervention (the cars don't have a steering wheel or pedals), but weather and geographically restricted. Can't be pie in the sky when these are already operating! Most major manufacturers expect Level 4 in most major cities by 2023 at the latest, with Level 5 coming within 5 years after that. Some manufacturers are saying they'll have Level 5 before then.

[Frontst17]

The strip where buffalo exchange is now can go. That’d be a nice spot for mixed use

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by AbortedWalrus

It's not really all that pie in the sky anymore. Waymo has been operating a Level 4 self-driving fleet in Phoenix for months. Level 4 means literally zero driver intervention (the cars don't have a steering wheel or pedals), but weather and geographically restricted. Can't be pie in the sky when these are already operating! Most major manufacturers expect Level 4 in most major cities by 2023 at the latest, with Level 5 coming within 5 years after that. Some manufacturers are saying they'll have Level 5 before then.

It’s not pie-in-the-sky, but is still a ways off. Early adoption will happen over the next five years. But before a broader release, the technology needs time to be piloted, assessed, and evolved. Plus local laws and infrastructure will have to play catch-up. Mass adoption probably isn’t feasible for another decade or two.

Think about gay marriage, clean energy, legalized weed, or any other social change over the past few decades. It’ll work it’s way through a handful of states, get challenged with lawsuits, as it becomes more economically acceptable it’ll roll out to more states, and then everyone will do it. Takes about 10 to 15 years federally from the time it’s first rolled out in a single state.

[Knight Hospitaller]

Originally Posted by AbortedWalrus

It's not really all that pie in the sky anymore. Waymo has been operating a Level 4 self-driving fleet in Phoenix for months. Level 4 means literally zero driver intervention (the cars don't have a steering wheel or pedals), but weather and geographically restricted. Can't be pie in the sky when these are already operating! Most major manufacturers expect Level 4 in most major cities by 2023 at the latest, with Level 5 coming within 5 years after that. Some manufacturers are saying they'll have Level 5 before then.

What I mean is that you can't take this to the bank for some time to come, although the technology is advancing at an astonishing rate. GM filed something with the DOT for self-driving cars recently. Soon enough, our cars will become Cylons and run us over of their own accord.

[Milksteak]

Technology is not the issue here. Laws, regulations, and government are going to be what slows down fully autonomous vehicle adoption. You are insane if you think we are going to be at that level in 5 years.

[Busy Bee]

I put the Hyperloopers/AV utopians in the insane column

[iheartphilly]

Originally Posted by Milksteak

Technology is not the issue here. Laws, regulations, and government are going to be what slows down fully autonomous vehicle adoption. You are insane if you think we are going to be at that level in 5 years.

Early adoption will be taxi service or services to take seniors to appointments, etc. But, the general public will still want to drive and may not be comfortable with technology doing it for them. Self-directed vehicle driving is still dominant culture here and a hard habit to break. Plus technology will add to price of cars so individuals that can still drive probably will not shell out money for a computer to drive itself if s/he can do it now.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Frontst17

The strip where buffalo exchange is now can go. That’d be a nice spot for mixed use

Not happening. It was just renovated. The last google street view shows the renovation in progress. https://www.google.com/maps/place/17...!4d-75.1692586 But the strip on the other side of Collins Park with the ugly Wendy's looking metal protrusions from brick is ripe for redevelopment. A nice midrise with retail would be great here. Even a highrise if market conditions or ripe for it.

[CCGuy]

Originally Posted by iheartphilly

Early adoption will be taxi service or services to take seniors to appointments, etc. But, the general public will still want to drive and may not be comfortable with technology doing it for them. Self-directed vehicle driving is still dominant culture here and a hard habit to break. Plus technology will add to price of cars so individuals that can still drive probably will not shell out money for a computer to drive itself if s/he can do it now.

We shall see, but the total cost of ownership of your own car vs an autonomous driving car share service will be less for most people (based in avg miles driven). Computers are cheap and getting cheaper. Shared insurance pools will lower costs even more. I disagree that the general public will not be comfortable being chauffeured around- by a safer, autonomous, driver than the typical cab driver of today. Ford and other car companies see this shared fleet - reoccurring revenue, as the business model of the future. To sum up- this will be cheaper, safer, and better for the environment. For urban areas this makes total sense.

[allovertown]

Originally Posted by ScreamShatter

I live right next to a train station in one of my the quickly developing areas, and me and all my neighbors who have moved into these new houses each have 2 cars. Either for a couple living together or roommates or whoever. Multiple people work outside the city so the train won’t get us to where we need to go. And others who have two cars bc they drive their kids to the burbs each day for school...a situation that I bet is more common than people realize as I have 3 young families on my block who do it. Additionally, when you factor in commercial activity or people who drive to the area and park there to get on on the train, it causes a lot of parking issues.

That’s not to say it can’t change in the future with technology. But where we are today, most households have two cars and our streets aren’t easily able to support that nor is it realistic for everyone to take public trans.

Not every development is suitable for every person's needs. When you're building a block from the train you should be able to build a development for people who primarily commute downtown and don't need so many cars. Besides a development with a lot of spaces will just attract households with a lot of cars. You may end up with nearly the same overflow into street parking as with a more urban development.

As far as driverless cars go. There are still a few technological hurdles and sometimes those last fine details are the hardest to hammer down. But as others have mentioned, the biggest hurdles are by far governmental and societal. It won't be accepted overnight. A few publicized accidents could alone delay this for years. Anyone who thinks there will be large scale transition within 10 years is really getting ahead of themselves.

[City Wide]

Originally Posted by eixample

It's in the report, which I can't access at the moment, but I think it is 50 some feet. They also mention that they will be able to reduce the trolley fleet by a few dozen because the new cars will have increased capacity.

As a somewhat regular trolley rider I'd say that reducing the fleet is a bad move. Fewer trolleys would have to mean a longer wait between trolleys. They are crowded most of the day/evening, the whole trolley system could benefit with a number of not so major changes, but reducing the frequency is not one of them.

[jsbrook]

Originally Posted by Busy Bee

I put the Hyperloopers/AV utopians in the insane column

Me too. Sort of like those silly people who thought humans would eventually use contraptions to fly about the sky in large numbers. Oh wait...

[ScreamShatter]

Originally Posted by allovertown

Not every development is suitable for every person's needs. When you're building a block from the train you should be able to build a development for people who primarily commute downtown and don't need so many cars. Besides a development with a lot of spaces will just attract households with a lot of cars. You may end up with nearly the same overflow into street parking as with a more urban development.

As far as driverless cars go. There are still a few technological hurdles and sometimes those last fine details are the hardest to hammer down. But as others have mentioned, the biggest hurdles are by far governmental and societal. It won't be accepted overnight. A few publicized accidents could alone delay this for years. Anyone who thinks there will be large scale transition within 10 years is really getting ahead of themselves.

I agree with all your points. I'm just pointing out that I'm literally a couple blocks from a train station and developers have tried that argument of "people are going to commute on the train" but the residents in those developments still end up having lots of cars. I see it every day. Not saying there isn't a point to what you are saying -- I'm just pointing out that its not always playing out that way. Most people who can afford these new houses are going to have cars -- its part of the middle class lifestyle.

As for driverless cars, they may be on the way. But they also may not be. Think Fusion energy that has always been said to be 20 years away. It takes time, and its difficult to predict. I personally believe it will happen, but how that impacts society and how to prepare for it is not as easy as people think. Heck, it may be driverless cars make it possible for people to live further outside of the city and commute in which wouldn't surprise me. In which, they'll be less people living in the city anyways so all this development won't matter as much.

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by City Wide

As a somewhat regular trolley rider I'd say that reducing the fleet is a bad move. Fewer trolleys would have to mean a longer wait between trolleys. They are crowded most of the day/evening, the whole trolley system could benefit with a number of not so major changes, but reducing the frequency is not one of them.

reduced frequency but not loss in capacity because the trolley's will hold more people. Once they drop the # of stops it's going to be more like real light rail- not a bus on wheels. I.e. people will actually need to look at scheduled times before showing up at a stop instead of going to nearest corner and knowing a trolley will show up within 5 min.

[ebuilder]

Originally Posted by allovertown

Not every development is suitable for every person's needs. When you're building a block from the train you should be able to build a development for people who primarily commute downtown and don't need so many cars. Besides a development with a lot of spaces will just attract households with a lot of cars. You may end up with nearly the same overflow into street parking as with a more urban development.

As far as driverless cars go. There are still a few technological hurdles and sometimes those last fine details are the hardest to hammer down. But as others have mentioned, the biggest hurdles are by far governmental and societal. It won't be accepted overnight. A few publicized accidents could alone delay this for years. Anyone who thinks there will be large scale transition within 10 years is really getting ahead of themselves.

exactly. People don't just buy new cars every 4 years. It would take YEARS for the current fleet to be replaced and that is assuming people embrace the tech and are willing to pay for it. What is more likely to happen is this tech debuts in high end pricey cars that the masses cannot afford and many middle and lower class people will stick with regular cars for the foreseeable future. Also, driverless cars don't solve traffic problems- they just allow you to have a longer commute with less stress. IN fact, it will likely make traffic worse by encouraging people to move farther from job centers.