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  #4881  
Old Posted Feb 11, 2019, 10:48 PM
JMKeynes JMKeynes is offline
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
Given the success of 3 WTC in regards to leasing, long term, enough support would be gathered. Instead of banking on super large leases, smaller, but consistent leases are negotiated until they reach a reasonable %. Gives them more time to search and negotiate, all the while this is being built.
I agree. I hope that he has funding with the Qataris, et al lined up.
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  #4882  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 3:29 AM
BrownTown BrownTown is offline
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The justification will come in the few years when the tower is built. I would imagine that between now and then there will be office space leased in New York City. There isn't a limitation on tenants, just what and when tenants will need the space. I've always said the WTC will be rebuilt and leased, but its a matter of time. The original WTC complex took years to lease, close to 2 decades. We're talking about 10 msf Downtown, which doesn't lease at the rate of Midtown. But there is a huge amount of leased office space in Manhattan. All of the new office space coming online is just a drop in the bucket. And the supply off existing office space in the city is not getting any younger, and won't be any younger in the future.
Well yeah, if you set your time horizon long enough you will eventually be right I guess. But in the same vein all those ghost cities in China are eventually going to fill up too. That doesn't mean either is a good investment decision. The redevelopment of the WTC is what got me interested in skyscrapers as a kid and now I'm 33 and it's still not complete, let alone fully leased. I've watched so many buildings go up in that amount of time and yet still this site languishes. I actually walked by one of the columns for this building last week and was confused what it was at first; I had literally forgotten this building even existed. Pretty amazing considering there was once a time I would check the progress of this site on a daily basis.
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  #4883  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 4:52 AM
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I can't even blame those who have forgotten about 2 WTC given the unprecedented boom that has occurred and still is. Even though the idea of 2 WTC rising from the ashes came before Hudson Yards, 57th Street towers, and the resurgence of downtown, it has been in the shadows of this boom.

Goes to show how nothing is guaranteed and sometimes it comes down to luck or timing. Had Fox gone through with the deal, this could of been topped out by now.

I'll say this, 2 WTC has had no luck, even when compared to the success of 1, 3, 4, and 7 WTC. But its time will shine. We just have to be super patient.
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  #4884  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 4:56 AM
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I agree. I hope that he has funding with the Qataris, et al lined up.
Mid Eastern investment is always welcomed. Shame that Chinese investment is under the gun at the moment due to the crackdown on capital flowing from the mainland. 80 South was a victim of it.

I'd be nice if U.S. based lenders took a risk every once in a while. Its not like NY doesn't have good yields. Has overtime shown that it'll guarantee a return.
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  #4885  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 5:55 AM
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Well yeah, if you set your time horizon long enough you will eventually be right I guess. But in the same vein all those ghost cities in China are eventually going to fill up too.

I don't know why people continue to bring up what's going on in other places, as if it matters here. We're talking about New York, with all of the history and the precedent of how things are done in New York. Could care less about the "ghost cities" of China. The entire original WTC complex of 10 msf was built on spec, all Downtown, and at a time when other new office space was being built Downtown as well. Yes, it took time for the complex to fill up. And yes, most of the complex is already built, and filling up as we speak. This tower wouldn't be able to take in any tenants for four years. There's NO major new office space being built Downtown.



https://nypost.com/2019/02/11/specul...to-the-market/

‘Speculative’ building is creeping back into the market





By Steve Cuozzo
February 11, 2019


Quote:
A specter is stalking the city’s commercial real estate market — the specter of spec.

Constructing offices without pre-signed tenants, known as “speculative” building, has long been the bane of developers and landlords who weren’t the ones doing the building.
Quote:
Brookfield Property Group plans to build Two Manhattan West (1.9 million square feet) even before inking any deals. BPG Chairman Ric Clark told us, “With the first four million square feet of office space at Manhattan West already 92 percent leased, combined with enormous demand for Two Manhattan West we’ve seen already, we are eager to bring the building on-line as quickly as possible.”

On Monday, Larry Silverstein said he might launch long-stalled Two World Trade Center’s 2.8 million square feet without pre-signed tenants as well.

“I think we’re in an increasingly good spot, in a good position” to do that, he told Bloomberg.
Quote:
According to CBRE, of Manhattan’s total 15.3 million square feet of offices under construction right now, some 3.07 million square feet are speculative — a surprising 20 percent. One reason the phenomenon’s been overlooked is that it’s scattered.

Some 1.17 million square feet of the new spec supply are in eight “boutique” buildings — of which Trinity Real Estate’s 68-74 Trinity Place (310,000 square feet) is the largest.

In Brooklyn, meanwhile, Tishman Speyer’s 10-story The Wheeler, going up on Fulton Street, has 622,000 square feet of first-class space up for grabs.

Several large, proposed Manhattan projects also have spec potential, including Harry Macklowe’s supertall Tower Fifth near St. Patrick’s Cathedral and TF Cornerstone and MSD Partners’ redevelopment of the Grand Hyatt Hotel on East 42nd Street, which would mostly be for offices.

Both projects need public approvals. The developers sound like they’d otherwise start digging tomorrow but have said nothing about tenants. They didn’t get back to us on whether they’d build without them.

Some projects that aren’t fully spec are almost-spec. SL Green’s One Vanderbilt near Grand Central Terminal is now more than 52 percent leased ahead of its August 2020 opening. Yet SLG had pre-leased a mere 200,000 square feet of a total 1.52 million to TD Bank when it started building.
Quote:
CBRE’s Mary Ann Tighe, who reps 550 Madison, noted that even if all of the potentially spec projects go up, their completions would be stretched out over several years, so their market impact would more than likely be negligible.

She added, “New office buildings [with or without tenants] represent a tiny percentage of the [414-million-square-foot] office market and for good reasons,” including lack of “viable” land, political and neighborhood resistance and sky-high construction costs.

She said that “a spec building is a multibillion dollar gamble and few [developers] have the credibility and staying power for risk on that scale.”

Even so, she said that most tenants of more than 50,000 square feet needing to move choose to relocate to all-new buildings or to major makeovers such as 550 Madison Ave. and 1271 Sixth Ave. “Going spec is rare but usually rewarded unless a development hits during a severe financial downturn,” she said.
Quote:
JLL regional president Peter Riguardi said the notion of a “wave” of spec development “is more smoke than fire.”

He suggested that “some developers say they’re going to do it, to generate interest in projects and get a buzz going” — although he said he wasn’t including Two Manhattan West in that.

The fate of Two World Trade Center, the missing link in the great downtown complex, might be the most intriguing situation. We couldn’t reach Silverstein to expand on his comments.

But, “Larry is a man of his word,” said Durst, who’s the operating partner in One World Trade Center and competes for tenants with Silverstein’s Trade Center towers.



https://www.bisnow.com/new-york/news...-leasing-96357

Manhattan Had Its Best Office Leasing Market In 17 Years In 2018

January 7, 2019
Miriam Hall


Quote:
Just under 42M SF was leased in the borough in 2018, according to Colliers International research, including new leases, renewals and expansions. That was up 13% from 2017’s total of 37M SF, and the highest yearly lease volume since 2001.

Rents were also strong, with the average asking rent for the borough hitting just shy of $76 per SF.

Meanwhile, CBRE’s figures showed 2018’s new leasing and expansions total — which hit 32M SF, according to the brokerage — surpassed the average annual figure over the past decade by 26%. “This year has bettered any year in the last two market cycles,” Colliers International Executive Director Craig Caggiano said. “The total of 41.75M SF, I mean, really is a remarkable number.”
Quote:
Brokers put the strong year down to a few major factors. Business and job growth, along with a robust economy, is keeping the market healthy. Financial, insurance and real estate, known as FIRE, tenants took some of the city’s most significant deals, and coworking and flexible office space providers (which fall under FIRE) expanded rapidly throughout the year.
Quote:
Meanwhile, some of the world's biggest companies propelled the leasing market forward, with deals like Deutsche Bank’s 1M SF move to One Columbus Circle, JPMorgan's renewal for 855K SF at 277 Park Ave. and Pfizer’s lease at Tishman Speyer’s Hudson Yards tower, known as the Spiral.
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Last edited by NYguy; Feb 12, 2019 at 6:11 AM.
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  #4886  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 2:25 PM
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Finally.
Also I love how even if once this tower tops out there will still be people hoping Fosters design magically gets built here.
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  #4887  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 2:58 PM
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Larry is getting old. He wants to see this complex fully built out and his vision realized.

I don't blame him in the least. I hope he gets to see it through.
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  #4888  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 4:10 PM
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Originally Posted by rgarri4 View Post
Finally.
Also I love how even if once this tower tops out there will still be people hoping Fosters design magically gets built here.
They'll be calling for Silverstein to tear it down and build Foster.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Submariner View Post
Larry is getting old. He wants to see this complex fully built out and his vision realized.

I don't blame him in the least. I hope he gets to see it through.
Yeah, he's not getting any younger. I hope he gets to see it completed.


Meanwhile, Silverstein has been getting into other things as well...


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...elopment-scene

World Trade Center Builder Silverstein Expands Into Real Estate Lending

By Natalie Wong and Justina Vasquez
October 3, 2018


Quote:
Silverstein Properties Inc., the developer of prominent New York City buildings such as 3 World Trade Center, launched a real estate lending venture to profit from what it sees as a financing gap left by banks.

Silverstein Capital Partners will provide loans for the full gamut of projects, from office and industrial to residential and retail, the company said. Silverstein has partnered with a sovereign wealth fund and a pension fund that together will provide most of the capital for the venture, Chief Executive Officer Marty Burger said in an interview, declining to name them.
Quote:
Burger wouldn’t say how much money the venture has to lend but said the partners have deep pockets and that there is no maximum loan. The minimum loan will be $25 million. The venture, which is prepared to start lending immediately, already has a pipeline of deals, he said, and he expects annual returns of 10 to 15 percent. This is Silverstein’s first foray into lending.

“There were a lot of banks that couldn’t handle the loans,” Burger said. “We’re a developer at heart, and we usually do very large projects, and we found that there was just a gap in the financing markets where there were large loans needed for complicated projects.”
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  #4889  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 4:23 PM
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Go for it, Silverstein. Hopefully you can see the whole thing finished during your lifetime.
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  #4890  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 9:14 PM
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A little more encouraging news for Downtown...


https://patch.com/new-york/downtown-...liance-reports

Business Is Booming In Lower Manhattan, Downtown Alliance Reports
Lower Manhattan's growth continues.



By Sydney Pereira
Feb 12, 2019


Quote:
Lower Manhattan's growth continued last year as the overall vacancy rate for office space dropped to 10.8 percent, according to a new report from the Downtown Alliance. It was the biggest quarterly drop since 2014, the report said.

Lower Manhattan finished 2018 with the highest level of commercial leasing activity since the second quarter of 2011, according to the report, with 5.5 million square feet of commercial leasing space. Last year shaped up to have the most leasing activity since 2014, according to the report.
Quote:
This type of economic activity has recently made Larry Silverstein, head of Silverstein Properties, confident he can start building 2 World Trade Center before signing an anchor tenant. Tower 2, the final in the WTC campus, would be 80-stories high with another 2.8 million square feet of office rental space.

https://www.downtownny.com/reports/l...in-review-2018
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  #4891  
Old Posted Feb 12, 2019, 9:15 PM
JMKeynes JMKeynes is offline
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Originally Posted by NYguy View Post
A little more encouraging news for Downtown...


https://patch.com/new-york/downtown-...liance-reports

Business Is Booming In Lower Manhattan, Downtown Alliance Reports
Lower Manhattan's growth continues.



By Sydney Pereira
Feb 12, 2019







https://www.downtownny.com/reports/l...in-review-2018
Only in NY!!!!
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  #4892  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2019, 6:31 AM
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I wonder how much the design will change/be tweaked.

Having a roof even with tower 1 or the old 2WTC would be nice to have the twin affect back. Although 1,270 is still very tall, and it's a big building.
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  #4893  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2019, 6:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Zapatan View Post
I wonder how much the design will change/be tweaked.

Having a roof even with tower 1 or the old 2WTC would be nice to have the twin affect back. Although 1,270 is still very tall, and it's a big building.
What makes you think it's going to be tweaked? I haven't seen that anywhere.
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  #4894  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2019, 6:42 AM
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Originally Posted by NYguy View Post
What makes you think it's going to be tweaked? I haven't seen that anywhere.
I don't necessarily, but it's been a while since the original design was proposed so maybe they want to change a few things?
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  #4895  
Old Posted Feb 16, 2019, 7:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Zapatan View Post
I don't necessarily, but it's been a while since the original design was proposed so maybe they want to change a few things?
I'm sure there has been some refinement, but don't expect anything to be different unless Silverstein comes out with a new version. No reason to expect that he will.
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  #4896  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2019, 3:38 AM
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Spin the wheel, and the tenants will land somewhere. There's always someone looking for large chunks of real estate in the Manhattan office market...


https://nypost.com/2019/02/25/office...elite-tenants/

Office towers compete to win over a handful of elite tenants

By Steve Cuozzo
February 25, 2019

Quote:
Five major new office towers are in frenzied competition for a handful of big tenants prowling for new Manhattan digs. Where the chips fall will have a big impact on the towers’ profitability and their developers’ fortunes.

Prominent among companies being wooed and pursued is law firm Cravath Swaine & Moore, which has 600,000 square feet at Worldwide Plaza (825 Eighth Ave.). It’s been there since 2007 and its lease is up in 2024. The 2.1 million square-foot tower is 50.1 percent owned by New York REIT Inc. in a joint venture with SL Green and RXR Realty.

According to sources, Cravath Swaine is taking a hard look at Brookfield’s Two Manhattan West, which has yet to rise; Related Cos.’ 50 Hudson Yards and Tishman Speyer’s The Spiral, both under construction; SL Green’s One Vanderbilt, which is nearly finished; and Silverstein Properties’ Three World Trade Center, which opened early last year.
Quote:
CBRE Vice Chairman Lewis Miller, the broker for Cravath Swaine, declined to comment. So did reps for all of the buildings. All five belong to the elite class of new commercial skyscrapers with advanced infrastructure systems and excellent views.

None would come cheaply. Asking rents at some of the towers break $100 per square foot. But Cravath Swaine might be in a position to strike the best deal for itself at Two Manhattan West.

Brookfield plans to start building the 1.9-million-square-foot skyscraper before it’s signed any tenants
, which doesn’t mean it wouldn’t love to have at least one in its pocket first. The first tenant into a spec project always has the most bargaining power.
Quote:
Plenty of space also remains available at the other new buildings. There are 1.6 million of 50 Hudson Yards’ total 2.9 million square feet; 2.05 million of The Spiral’s total 2.85 million square feet; 800,000 of One Vanderbilt’s total 1.7 million square feet; and nearly 1.5 million of Three World Trade’s 2.5 million square feet.

But sources offered a cautioning insight common in such situations — namely, that Cravath Swaine might decide to stay at Worldwide Plaza after all.

“They’re in a great position to wrestle the best terms from among six different landlords who’d kill to get them or keep them,” one insider said.

Sources said Cravath recently toured Three World Trade.

Another possible space-hunter is AIG, which is negotiating with Rockefeller Group for nearly 200,000 square feet at 1271 Sixth Ave.

The company is currently in several FiDi buildings.

Sources said AIG might also want up to 500,000 square feet, possibly at a single location Downtown.

500,000 square ft at 2 WTC would be nice. Come on AIG, consolidate.
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  #4897  
Old Posted Feb 26, 2019, 6:56 PM
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Another opinion...not likely though.


https://www.crainsnewyork.com/op-ed/...-redeem-amazon

Trade Center site can redeem Amazon
Queens campus is lost, but there's a feel-good alternative in Lower Manhattan


Michael Burke
Februar 26, 2019


Quote:
At about the same time Amazon was bailing out on Long Island City, developer Larry Silverstein announced he might build 2 World Trade Center without an anchor tenant signed.

Call me naive, but I see an opportunity here. Maybe Amazon and Silverstein should talk. It might be a marriage made in heaven. Literally.

My brother Billy, Captain of Engine Co. 21, gave his life at Trade Center on September 11. When the design for 2 WTC was introduced, I contacted Bjarke Ingels, the architect, to tell him that it invoked the heroic stair climb of the firefighters, 9/11.

To his credit he wholeheartedly embraced the image, mentioning it in TV interviews.
Quote:
On September 11, Billy managed to secure the safe evacuation of all of his men and the civilians they reached. He stayed to assist Ed Beyea and Abe Zelmanowitz, co-workers at Empire Blue Cross. Ed was a quadriplegic trapped in his mechanized wheelchair in a tower with no working elevators. Abe was his friend, who would not leave without him.

Only minutes before 1 WTC collapsed, they telephoned out to let family know they were still alive. Billy called a friend, who begged him to stay safe. “This is my job,” he told her. “This is what I do.”
Quote:
If Amazon headquartered at 2 WTC, that’s the spirit it could be part of.

It’s a shame that Queens will lose Amazon and all the economic benefits that would’ve come with it. However, with a little imagination and work they can still make a home in New York City. I know Captain Billy Burke, a native New Yorker, would’ve been a great supporter of that.
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  #4898  
Old Posted Feb 27, 2019, 4:18 AM
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"They'll be calling for Silverstein to
tear it down and build Foster"
- NYguy

. . yeah, as well we should . .
especially that particular view of
Ingles's scam 2WTC (above
in NYguy's 1st Feb 12th post) . .

it's the horse's ass building . .
a pretentious 1300 ft Wallmart . .
a hairbrained nothingburger leaching
off the fame of Tower One . .
utterly unworthy of Gotham . .

this one will be New York's ugliest ! . .
the ultimate Value-engineered building . .
equivalent to erecting a thousand foot
Walkie-Talkie building smack next to the Shard
. . wimps throw up hands & give in
when they're gettin' ripped off . .
It's especially NOT stupid, for people to decry
this massive cheap shot . .
before they start it . .
if ya see something, say something !
sure, even after its up ! . .
Bjarke's worst Joke at our Trade Center . .
Give us Foster, ya cheap ^%$*@+# !
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  #4899  
Old Posted Mar 12, 2019, 9:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by artspook View Post
"They'll be calling for Silverstein to
tear it down and build Foster"
- NYguy

. . yeah, as well we should . .
especially that particular view of
Ingles's scam 2WTC (above
in NYguy's 1st Feb 12th post) . .

it's the horse's ass building . .
a pretentious 1300 ft Wallmart . .
a hairbrained nothingburger leaching
off the fame of Tower One . .
utterly unworthy of Gotham . .

this one will be New York's ugliest ! . .
the ultimate Value-engineered building . .
equivalent to erecting a thousand foot
Walkie-Talkie building smack next to the Shard
. . wimps throw up hands & give in
when they're gettin' ripped off . .
It's especially NOT stupid, for people to decry
this massive cheap shot . .
before they start it . .
if ya see something, say something !
sure, even after its up ! . .
Bjarke's worst Joke at our Trade Center . .
Give us Foster, ya cheap ^%$*@+# !
I mean say what you want about the aesthetic of BIG's design, the fact of the matter is that it performs better in that it's varying sized floor plates appeal to different types of tenants, especially media companies, who now account for a plurality of the leases inked at the WTC. Furthermore, BIG's design in more expensive to build than Fosters, so if anything building Foster's design would make Silverstein a "cheap shit". If good architecture is supposed to be the marriage of form and function, both designs leave much to be desired. I'd rather look at Foster's building, but I'd rather work in BIG's, hands down.
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  #4900  
Old Posted Mar 13, 2019, 4:56 AM
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I'm ready to see a completely different design all together.
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