Quote:
Originally Posted by Old&New
You are incorrect. Jeff Greene said that would only cost around $5-7 million, but he could do it for $4 million. The rest of the $35-40 million covers the seismic upgrades.
The demolition permit has not yet been approved. It is still pending, AND there is an active legal dispute about it. So no, Hines can’t just crack the roof. No demolition can happen until a permit has been granted.
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I severely doubt that any seismic work can be done for $5-7 Million. To do proper seismic work, the building would need to be placed on piers, jacked up, excavated underneath, additional piers laid 50' to 75' into the ground, an new foundation put in place, a stabilization system added, and then theater then lowered onto the new foundation and stabilization system. This is before work starts in the theater to reinforce the masonry, joists, roof, and anchor everything together correctly.
An easy estimate based on the approximate size of the theater and age, puts it at no less than $25 Million. For someone to say they could do it for 25% the cost or lower makes me question the rest of the lower cost estimates. It seems as if the low estimates are published just to cause sentiment to shift to support a reconstruction of the theater. While sentiment may shift, once funds run out and there is still 50% or more of the project remaining due to the false estimates, are people still going to donate again based on still false estimates?
This can then lead to questions on the estimates used on the programming of the reconstructed theater. If the reconstruction cost estimates are so off base, why should the estimates on the programming be accepted? Remember, there is no dedicated parking for the theater, it would need to contract with other garages that are a full block + away from the theater, especially when counting the walking distance. This will hamper the ability to draw people, which lowers the ability to program the theater.
Using the theater as an Art House or for Sundance can help a bit but overall, the patronage will be sparse for the vase majority of the year. This leads to higher ticket prices, or the need for subsidies from the ZAP tax. Even with this, ZAP is limited in what it can provide and it is doubtful that it would provide sufficient funds to allow the theater to survive.
Now, if the theater were to be moved (brick by brick) to an area with parking, on or very near transit, I could see the cost to reconstruct the theater coming in at $30-40 Million.
I would love the theater to be reconstructed, I won't use restored as there is too much gone to restore it, but I am also a realist who understands costs and budgets. The real world needs to come into this and the fantasy needs to be let go.
Lastly, all estimates from the City for reconstruction were done prior to construction costs increasing roughly 30%. The estimates provided by the Save the Pantages group were done after this 30% increase. This alone should make people question the estimates.