Oregon Square | 2 buildings | XX'-XX" | 5-6 or 8-9 floors | Proposed

[2oh1]

Mac's comment that "form follows parking" rings true. It'll be interesting - and probably disappointing - to see if they split the site in half or scrap the concept entirely and start over with something dumbed down on a smaller scale.

I can't help wondering if they're spooked by the timing of presidential elections & worried about a changing economic outlook for 2017/18.

Sigh. I really hope this gets built. Seeing this part of town turn into a residential neighborhood was so exciting, not to mention so overdue.

[58rhodes]

Originally Posted by ZigzagMan

Read the report provided. Even if it is phased out their def going to dumb it down. It's in the process as we speak

looks like they've found greener pastures

[ZigzagMan]

Originally Posted by 2oh1

Mac's comment that "form follows parking" rings true. It'll be interesting - and probably disappointing - to see if they split the site in half or scrap the concept entirely and start over with something dumbed down on a smaller scale.

I can't help wondering if they're spooked by the timing of presidential elections & worried about a changing economic outlook for 2017/18.

Sigh. I really hope this gets built. Seeing this part of town turn into a residential neighborhood was so exciting, not to mention so overdue.

It's a big sigh, but it's going to get dumb down. How dumb down will probably be couple 5 + 1 buildings here and there, and that's about it.

This project was just too ambitious from the start and really un-Portland like.. I was just hoping this would have gone up before they realized that. It seems like they snapped back into reality and realized "oh what the hell are we thinking?!"

Too bad and really sad day

[soleri]

They "dumbed down" Hassalo on 8th, too. Originally,the plan was for two high-rises.

Like a lot of others, I'm going to regret what could have been here. I feared that the plan itself was a bit late in the boom and that it might eventually fall victim to a flagging economy. Still, given the almost-ideal location (on both MAX and streetcar lines, near downtown and freeways, and on a main bicycling route), I trust something will eventually happen. But like so many other visionary projects, this one will probably not be fully realized.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by ZigzagMan

Read the report provided. Even if it is phased out their def going to dumb it down. It's in the process as we speak

[ZigzagMan]

Originally Posted by soleri

They "dumbed down" Hassalo on 8th, too. Originally,the plan was for two high-rises.

Like a lot of others, I'm going to regret what could have been here. I feared that the plan itself was a bit late in the boom and that it might eventually fall victim to a flagging economy. Still, given the almost-ideal location (on both MAX and streetcar lines, near downtown and freeways, and on a main bicycling route), I trust something will eventually happen. But like so many other visionary projects, this one will probably not be fully realized.

Yup it's just the Portland way. That's why I hate the design commission they take forever to get things done and the whole process in general. We could have had this project up and rising by now before AAT realized all this doubt

[2oh1]

Originally Posted by ZigzagMan

This project was just too ambitious from the start and really un-Portland like..

This brings up an interesting thought to ponder: What IS "Portland-like" in 2016? In 2005, Portland's population was 534,112. In 2015, it was 613,355. That's nearly 80,000 new residents, each of whom changes what Portland "is" in some way. Estimates suggest Portland's population could be 750,000 in 2035, which sounds like it's a long way in the future, but it's only 19 years, so think about what Portland was 19 years ago. Actually, let's compare 1995, 2015 and 2035. I suspect the changes from 2015 to 2035 will be more dramatic than the changes from 1995 to 2015... which again prompts the question of "What IS Portland?"

In 1999, Portland's population was 503,637. That means at least 1 out of every 6 Portlanders never knew what Portland was before the 2000s. While many of us still associate Portland with what we knew it as back then, at least 1 out of every 6 Portlanders never knew that Portland. To many, Portland already is what many are trying to get used to it becoming. EDITED to add: I didn't even think about how those born in 1995 would be 20 if not 21 today, which means that for a sizable chunk of the population, today's Portland is the Portland of their youth. That's a heck of a lot of people.

Lloyd never felt like Portland to me. I remember walking around there in the late 90s, trying to find the Mac Store. I remember looking around at the wide open spaces and disconnected office towers. I felt like I was in Texas. Lloyd was not "Portland-like" then, so these new high rises are no less Portland-like than the old office towers & parking lots were.

I wish the new developments in Lloyd weren't priced so high, but I'm glad they're being built. Perhaps Lloyd is like getting a sneak peak at Portland 2035. Or even 2025?

[65MAX]

The market for housing here has not slowed down (it's accelerating), and our economy is one of the best (if not THE best, according to which magazine you read) in the country. I didn't read anything in the report that said they were "scrapping" the project, or even "dumbing it down". Just proceeding cautiously. There's nothing wrong with that approach, IMO.

[ZigzagMan]

What's Portland-like? How about projects of this magnitude being scrapped or dumb downed..

That's Portland like to me

[Malix]

Originally Posted by ZigzagMan

What's Portland-like? How about projects of this magnitude being scrapped or dumb downed..

That's Portland like to me

I have not heard about scrapping the project just studying phased approaches. The market changes rapidly yet developments of this size have to monitor risk while also making calculated predictions.

The first phase is doing so great and we have yet to see the retail that is committed opening up. This time next year the place will look so different.
As an investor you capitalize on that investment rather than dumb it down.

Phase one was always intended as a catalyst.

There may be a requirement to take part or all of the Oregon Square design through design review. Timing should be quick with the eminent punitive charges assessed to multi family residential projects sans affordable housing.

[maccoinnich]

AAT is announcing Q1 2016 earnings at close of market today, with a conference call tomorrow morning. I'm no expert on securities law, but I imagine that if there's any material news relating to Oregon Square they will discuss it.

[ORNative]

Thanks for keeping us up to date!

[maccoinnich]

Well, this is the only relevant information from the earnings call:

Studying operations at Oregon Square is the next topic. The Lloyd District portfolio that we acquired in 2011 consists of approximately 600,000 rentable square feet and more than 16 acres located in the Lloyd District of Portland, Oregon. A portion of this property has been a designated for additional developments to include a high density transitory [maccoinnich: I assume this should be "Transit Oriented"] unit mixed in use urban village. We are now focusing on the development, design of phase 2 which we have built on Oregon Square within the Lloyd District. These four city blocks that makeup Oregon Square provide us with the opportunity for substantial and generous apartment development and/or repositioning of additional office and/or development of new high rise office tower in conjunction with an anchor tenant.

Developments yields continue to present returns that we believe are more attractive than acquisitions and we have opportunity for additional development phases following Oregon Square. We believe there is much more opportunity in the Lloyd District that we will prudently harvest as we continue to evaluate apartment performance of Hassalo on Eighth and finalize design of our developments for Oregon Square that have risk adjusted returns that will be accretive to our stockholders. We also minimized development risk by limiting overall development any one point in time to not exceed 15% of our total assets, locking in cost through the use of guaranteed maximum price contracts early on when possible and prefunding a significant portion if not all of the development capital requirements prior to getting started.

[soleri]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

Well, this is the only relevant information from the earnings call

Translation: we will go ahead with this project if Hassalo on 8th does better than it is right now, possibly replacing one apartment building with an office building if we can find an anchor tenant. We will also continue to concentrate on development rather than buying new property since those returns appear to be higher. We will make sure that development costs are kept low by prefunding as much of the project as possible, including contracted construction costs. As always, risk avoidance and attractive stock returns are our paramount concern.

[AcmeGreg]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

Well, this is the only relevant information from the earnings call:

I take transitory to mean renters rather than owners. ?

[maccoinnich]

Well, here it is. GBD have scheduled a Pre-Application Conference:

2 towers - 1 23 story & 1 11story - residential development with underground parking connection. Ground floor retail - with outdoor plaza.

Looks like they're moving ahead with it as a phased development. The Pre-App notice should go up on the city website some time this week.

[65MAX]

So is that the western two blocks? Seems like they would have done the eastern half first since the garage access is from 9th. Or maybe they're doing all of the underground portions plus the two western blocks above ground?

[maccoinnich]

My guess was that if they did phase it, they would do the northern half. Instead it looks like they are doing the western half.

[bvpcvm]

So, are there any tea leaves to be read from this?

[eric cantona]

Originally Posted by bvpcvm

So, are there any tea leaves to be read from this?

AAT is moving forward cautiously. which is intelligent. throwing down nearly a thousand units at once, in any market, is always going to be risky. I would assume that they'll construct all of the below grade parking and half or less of the plaza.

I shared Mac's initial thought that they'd take on the north side, adjacent to the MAX. certainly would feel more complete in relation to Hassalo on Eighth.