Oregon Square | 2 buildings | XX'-XX" | 5-6 or 8-9 floors | Proposed

[babs]

Originally Posted by eric cantona

AAT is moving forward cautiously. which is intelligent. throwing down nearly a thousand units at once, in any market, is always going to be risky. I would assume that they'll construct all of the below grade parking and half or less of the plaza.

I shared Mac's initial thought that they'd take on the north side, adjacent to the MAX. certainly would feel more complete in relation to Hassalo on Eighth.

I would be moving cautiously as well. There are a lot of folks out there who think a recession could hit early next year, regardless of who becomes president and I wouldn't want to be sitting on such a large project. We've been in an economic recovery for a pretty long time and the business cycle hasn't changed. Again, I hope we don't see a recession but history shows us otherwise.

[maccoinnich]

From the DJC ($):

Wade Lange, vice president and regional manager for American Assets Trust, confirmed that the developer now prefers to build Oregon Square in two phases.

“We’re looking at that as an awful big piece to add right now,” he said Tuesday. “We’re looking at a phased approach.”

Early assistance from the city of Portland’s Bureau of Development Services has again been requested for the project. Oregon Square previously won approval from the Design Commission in November.

New plans call for a western phase fronting Seventh Avenue with two buildings, one 11 stories and another 23 stories, with an eastern phase to follow.

The first phase would encompass approximately 560 residential units, depending upon the mix of apartment sizes (still under review), and about 14,000 square feet of retail space.

“We’ve asked our architects to keep it as close to the previously approved design (as possible),” Lange said.

(Emphasis mine)

[innovativethinking]

So pretty much block 90 and block 91 are going first then block 102 and block 103 is still up in the air??

[AcmeGreg]

Be interesting to see how much, if any (or all?) of the central plaza they include in the Phase I buildout. That's a key element in the design of this project as a whole.

[zilfondel]

From what I've heard, the US economy is expected to grow 2.2% this year and 2-3% in 2017. A recession shouldn't hit until 2018, at the earliest.

[innovativethinking]

Am I assuming right that it's block 90 and block 91 that are going first then block 102 and block 103 that's still up in the air?

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by zilfondel

From what I've heard, the US economy is expected to grow 2.2% this year and 2-3% in 2017. A recession shouldn't hit until 2018, at the earliest.

Oh good, around the time I will hopefully be ready to buy a house, I could use a dip in housing prices when I am ready to buy.

[maccoinnich]

Originally Posted by innovativethinking

Am I assuming right that it's block 90 and block 91 that are going first then block 102 and block 103 that's still up in the air?

That is my understanding.

On re-reading the article today, I noticed that it says that the first phase would have 560 residential units and that one of the buildings would be 23 stories. What was shown in the previously approved drawings was 434 units, split between an 11 story and a 21 story building. I wonder if they're considering some change of the unit mix towards smaller units, along with making Block 90 slightly taller.

[innovativethinking]

Originally Posted by maccoinnich

That is my understanding.

On re-reading the article today, I noticed that it says that the first phase would have 560 residential units and that one of the buildings would be 23 stories. What was shown in the previously approved drawings was 434 units, split between an 11 story and a 21 story building. I wonder if they're considering some change of the unit mix towards smaller units, along with making Block 90 slightly taller.

Yup. I noticed that as well. Seems like a slight modification.

I bet they cut into the 30 plus story one that's planned later to compensate the increase in this phase.

[babs]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

Oh good, around the time I will hopefully be ready to buy a house, I could use a dip in housing prices when I am ready to buy.

Hate to break it to you but housing prices are not coming down. They will level out but they are not coming down. The 2007-2009 crash was due to the banks and borrowers making stupid loans and dragging down the financial industries. These issues are just not there right now in the financial markets to cause the same upheaval. If you look back at housing prices prior to this, there were no price drops since the Great Depression. That's why housing investments have traditionally been considered safe and conservative.

[urbanlife]

Originally Posted by babs

Hate to break it to you but housing prices are not coming down. They will level out but they are not coming down. The 2007-2009 crash was due to the banks and borrowers making stupid loans and dragging down the financial industries. These issues are just not there right now in the financial markets to cause the same upheaval. If you look back at housing prices prior to this, there were no price drops since the Great Depression. That's why housing investments have traditionally been considered safe and conservative.

Housing prices in Portland took quite a dip during the recession, granted housing prices are now higher than they were than 2008 when they peaked doesn't mean they won't take another dip. Housing investments is traditionally considered safe and conservative because people are suppose to invest in them in the long term. Those who buy houses to make money on the short term are the ones that get hurt the most when prices dip.

Obviously Portland and the metro isn't going back to the era of homes being valued under $100K, but seeing some stabling or even a dip back down to the $200K range would work.

[babs]

Originally Posted by urbanlife

Housing prices in Portland took quite a dip during the recession, granted housing prices are now higher than they were than 2008 when they peaked doesn't mean they won't take another dip. Housing investments is traditionally considered safe and conservative because people are suppose to invest in them in the long term. Those who buy houses to make money on the short term are the ones that get hurt the most when prices dip.

Obviously Portland and the metro isn't going back to the era of homes being valued under $100K, but seeing some stabling or even a dip back down to the $200K range would work.

If you are banking on houses falling back to the $200k range during the next recession, you are fooling yourself. The conditions aren't there for that.

[innovativethinking]

Originally Posted by babs

If you are banking on houses falling back to the $200k range during the next recession, you are fooling yourself. The conditions aren't there for that.

I agree. I was fortunate enough during the recession to buy 4 foreclosed homes almost in the inner NE area and know for sure I will never have the opportunity to get the deals I got.

The only problem I have now is to sell now or wait a few more years then get rid of them..

[maccoinnich]

Notice of a Pre-Application Conference [PDF]. Takeaways:

• The western two buildings come first. Until Phase II is built the existing two eastern buildings would remain.
• Many more units. 650 units in Phase I vs 434 previously approved. It looks like most of this comes from a lower average unit size. (This isn't surprising: the developers I've spoken to say that smaller units lease really quickly, but larger units stay on the market for much longer.) At full build out the project would have 1160 total units, up from 923 units previously approved.
• Lower parking ratio for the whole development. Parking access introduced from NE Oregon St at Block 90.
• Housing introduced at the ground level.
• Block 90 goes from an L shaped plan at the ground floor to a U shaped plan.

The last point is the only significant negative as far as I'm concerned. It really compromises the urban design principles of the square. I'm not totally in love with having housing at the ground level either, but it would be easy to change that back to retail, even after the buildings are constructed.

[eric cantona]

• Many more units. 650 units in Phase I vs 434 previously approved. It looks like most of this comes from a lower average unit size. (This isn't surprising: the developers I've spoken to say that smaller units lease really quickly, but larger units stay on the market for much longer.) At full build out the project would have 1160 total units, up from 923 units previously approved.

not only that, but the ROI on the square footage is higher on smaller units. I think that, like affordable housing, we are going to need to subsidize family-sized units in the relatively near future. this whole density thing will crumble away potentially without a decent mix of ages in the central city.

• Lower parking ratio for the whole development. Parking access introduced from NE Oregon St at Block 90.

makes sense. there is a tremendous amount of unused capacity under Hassalo on Eighth. even with the understanding that the development is not at lease capacity, I don't think they'll ever fill all three floors.

[maccoinnich]

Oregon Square design proposal changed in pre-application

A cluster of proposed high-rises in the Lloyd District has seen minor pre-application design changes that include more, smaller residential units and additional height.

GBD Architects has requested a second design review with the City of Portland’s Design Commission for the Oregon Square project along a superblock in the Lloyd District with significant changes to the original proposal that recently received land-use approval.

The original plan included mid-rises and high-rises totaling around 923 apartments — encasing a grand plaza — at an average of 834 square feet each and 554 parking spots. The new proposal include two phases of development, all high-rises, to be reviewed separately.

Now going in phases

Kyle Andersen, GBD’s design principal on the project, said the main change is that the project will now be reviewed and developed in phases.

“The biggest difference is that ... we are proposing to phase Oregon Square: phase 1, the buildings to the west along N.E. 7th Ave., and phase 2, the buildings to the east along N.E. 9th Ave.,” Andersen said. “The biggest change is that we went from a four-block development of 940 units to a first phase of development of roughly 650 units, though we’re phasing the project.”

...continues at the Business Tribune.

[Tykendo]

That's promising. Not a fan of the 21 story design. Hopefully more of a point tower design emerges.

[maccoinnich]

GBD Architects have submitted revisions to Oregon Square for Design Review:

Type III Design Review for a 4-block phased development. Changes to LU 15-156716 are being proposed. Phase 1 is the superblock be developed into two apartment towers around a publicly accessed ped-only plaza.

[maccoinnich]

Request for Response [PDF]

[maccoinnich]

Interesting hint for what could happen in Phase II, from AAT earnings call:

The four city blocks that make Oregon Square, provide us with the opportunity for substantial and significant apartment development and/or repositioning of additional office and/or development of new high rise office tower in conjunction with an anchor tenant.