What cities have shrunk most from the peak?

[balletomane]

Revised list of those cities already listed on this thread for 2016 estimates:

1. Highland Park, MI.....-79.5%
2. Johnstown, PA..........-70.7%
3. East St. Louis, IL......-67.3%
4. McKeesport, PA........-65.2%
5. St. Louis, MO...........-63.7%
6. Detroit, MI..............-63.6%
7. Youngstown, OH.......-62.2%
8. Hamtramck, MI........-61.3%
9. Cleveland, OH..........-57.8%
10. Gary, IN................-57.1%
11. Buffalo, NY.............-55.7%
12. Wheeling, WV.........-55.6%
13. Pittsburgh, PA.........-55.1%
14. Wilkes-Barre, PA.....-53.2%
15. Niagara Falls, NY.....-52.5%
16. East Chicago, IN......-50.7%
17. Flint, MI.................-50.6%
18. Saginaw, MI............-50.2%

[mhays]

Is this from their highest censuses or highest estimates? The latter would presumably be higher in most cases...or would be 90% likely to, assuming equal accuracy.

[balletomane]

Originally Posted by mhays

Is this from their highest censuses or highest estimates? The latter would presumably be higher in most cases...or would be 90% likely to, assuming equal accuracy.

This is from their highest census figure, although had they conducted official estimates decades ago like they do today, they probably would've been higher.

These cities declines in between census figures are probably about equal to what the declines would be in between official estimates, just because people are missed in the census.

Does anyone know what the US Census response rate is? I'm curious cause, say in the case of Detroit, if its 2020 estimate is ~650,000, what will the census results reveal, population closer to 600,000?

[Ex-Ithacan]

It's not just bigger cities losing population, most towns and villages in the Southern Tier of New York state are losing also (From Press Connects):

http://www.pressconnects.com/story/n...ows/338012001/

[Leo the Dog]

Originally Posted by Ex-Ithacan

It's not just bigger cities losing population, most towns and villages in the Southern Tier of New York state are losing also (From Press Connects):

http://www.pressconnects.com/story/n...ows/338012001/

Yeah small towns in the NE and midwest are declining, whereas small towns in the South and the West are growing.

[balletomane]

Just for fun, I thought I would try to estimate the population of those cities that peaked over 100,000 for the 2020 census. I think most of these cities will bottom out by 2050, and either stabilize or start growing after that, I think this will be the last census that Pittsburgh will post a decline.

Detroit.............639,019
Cleveland.........374,687
St. Louis...........303,082
Pittsburgh.........299,216
Buffalo.............251,424
Flint................93,080
Gary................73,105
Youngstown.......61,906
Niagara Falls.....47,116

[balletomane]

I wouldn't doubt if these cities post higher gains then what might be expected after they bottom out. Once the negative perceptions around these cities change, they'll probably have a much more affordable housing market than many other American cities and the vacant spaces left behind from the boom-bust will offer a lot of potential for new development.

[Kenneth]

I think that the census stats for Detroit in 2020 are going to show something that people don't expect. As unthinkable as it is to grasp, people are moving to the inner-city around downtown and into downtown. New homes are being built, I know because I live in corktown and I see the new construction. I admit it's nothing like what I've seen in Philly or Boston or New York, but I expect that within the 3 years to 2020 the new construction is going into hyper active speed. As more of the neighborhoods around central Detroit empty of the lower class people, more ideas for building things will take place. Also the Southwest side is seeing continues growth of Mexicans and Blacks which I saw mentioned in an article somewhere and that growth is almost equal to the 1,000 or so people that trickle out every year. Couple Southwest growth with the whites that will move into the apartments downtown and the population should stabilize within the three years to 2020. The only people leaving now are blacks that can afford to leave the really bad outer neighborhoods. Also in some of the outer neighborhoods that are not in disrepair there are no new housing being built to stabilize those communities. There's a lot of work to do but the stabilization is taking place in the city.

[mhays]

Projects need to start by early or mid 2018 for residents to show up in the census. Even 2019 completions will often be in their initial lease-up stage as of 4/1/20. For larger projects, even projects that start today might still be in lease-up.

[emathias]

Originally Posted by Kenneth

...
The only people leaving now are blacks that can afford to leave the really bad outer neighborhoods.
...

When you say "the only people leaving now are blacks," it implies that "blacks" is a relatively small demographic in Detroit, and ignores that the vast majority of Detroit residents - over 80% in 2010 - are black.

The 7.2 is eeking out a recovery, but it's still pretty slow, and I don't see how it offsets the continued decline on the (much larger) edges of the city in only the next few years. If Detroit can keep the 7.2 growing, it will eventually pull up the rest of the city. But it won't be fast or easy.

[Yuri]

As someone mentioned few pages ago, here a chart with former Soviet cities:

Originally Posted by fidalgo

http://sashat.me/2017/04/21/what-hap...soviet-cities/

[Kenneth]

Yes "emathias" I stand corrected. I should have said that "the only people leaving the city now are people that can afford to leave, and their from the outer neighborhoods. They leave because of opportunity in other states, or are victims of homicides. People are moving to central Detroit and southwest Detroit. My main point is that the number of people exiting the city is to a trickle compared to the exodus years ago, and that people are now entering as residents in enough numbers to balance out the numbers to stagnation, maybe, for 2020 census. Im expecting the 2020 census to show no more than 1000-3000 people less than 2010 which is great for the city even less those few thousand people. If the census shows upper towards 4-6000+ have left then it starts to look bad

[balletomane]

I think its inevitable that those American cities that have shrunk by 50%+ since the 1950's will bounce back, maybe not to the same size they were before they started their decline, but they will come back strong. On the other hand, those former Soviet cities seem that they will struggle and continue their shrinking for many more years, simply because those former Soviet countries are forecast to shrink by 10% or more by 2100. Their population is aging, and they don't have the same immigration that the US does to help replace that population, and I can't see that changing drastically years down the road. Except for those bigger centres like Moscow or St. Petersburg, I wonder what a city like Riga, Latvia or Donetsk, Ukraine will look like in 2050, and will they have lost over half their population from their peak?

[PoshSteve]

^ Most all of the large Russian cities have been growing since their 2010 census, many even surpassing their previous 1989 peaks recently. Even Nizhny Novgorod, which of the largest has decreased the most, has started growing again. This is due to the Russian population as a whole growing again, continual migration from rural areas and small towns to the cities, and large numbers of immigrants (mostly from the other former Soviet states) who go to the cities for jobs.

Since their inception into the EU, the Baltic nations have been in population freefall, with a huge brain drain to the western EU, as well as Russians returning to Russia. Places like Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius will probably continue to decline. The same is true for the large cities in eastern Ukraine like Donetsk, Lugansk, Kharkiv and Mariupol. Even before the civil war Ukraine had the weakest demographics, and still does (estimated TFR at 1.3). The country as a whole as lost a full 10M people since 1989 - a full fifth. The east has typically had weaker demographics than the west, again with the out migration of Russians to Russia, and the war has led to millions more fleeing. I think we will see many more abandoned places in Ukraine.

[MolsonExport]

Wheeling WV has shrivelled on the vine.