What cities have shrunk most from the peak? - Page 6

NorthernDancer · #**101** Posted **May 3, 2017, 12:16 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

Shots fired!

ChiSoxRox · #**102** Posted **May 4, 2017, 1:04 AM**

Scanning through MSAs, here's a list of current metro areas that are more than 5% off of their peaks.

I'm using this map from the Census Bureau for the definitions.

Metro........Peak.....2016.....Drop

Johnstown, PA........213,459.......134,732.......36.9%
Beckley, WV............178,716.......120,924.......32.3%
Wheeling, WV..........208,918.......142,982.......31.6%
Weirton, WV............167,756.......119,271.......28.9%
Scranton/WB, PA.....771,023.......555,225.......28.0%
Charleston, WV........293,631.......217,916.......25.8%
Danville, IL..............97,047.........78,111........19.5%
Decatur, IL.............131,375.......106,550........18.9%
Pine Bluff, AR..........111,955........91,962.........17.9%
Youngstown, OH.....663,178........544,746........17.9%
Buffalo, NY............1,349,211.....1,132,804......16.0%
Pittsburgh, PA.......2,768,938......2,342,299.....15.4%
Saginaw, MI...........228,059........193,307.......15.2%
Pittsfield, MA..........149,402........126,903.......15.0%
Elmira, NY..............101,537.........86,322........15.0%
Springfield, OH.......157,115........134,786........14.2%
Utica, NY...............340,670........293,803.......13.8%
Bay City, MI...........119,881........104,747.......12.6%
Cleveland, OH........2,321,037....2,055,612.......11.4%
Altoona, PA............140,358.......124,650........11.2%
Cumberland, MD......111,889........99,541.........11.0%
Muncie, IN.............129,219........115,603........10.5%
Niles, MI................171,276.......154,010.........10.0%
Flint, MI................450,449........408,615.........9.3%
Binghamton, NY.......268,328........244,094........9.0%
Farmington, NM.......130,044........118,737........8.7%
Duluth, MN.............304,528........279,227........8.3%
Ocean City, NJ........102,326........94,430..........7.7%
Mansfield, OH..........131,205.......121,107.........7.7%
Lima, OH................112,241........103,742........7.6%
St. Joseph, MO.......136,435........126,565.........7.2%
Parkersburg, WV.......98,570..........91,449.........7.2%
New Orleans, LA.....1,337,726.....1,268,883.......5.1%
Kokomo, IN..............86,896..........82,568........5.0%

Detroit is at 3.5% off its MSA high in 2000. A surprise was Huntington, WV which has enough suburban growth that the metro is only 3.6% off its 1980 peak.

Looking at 200k+ metros only:

Johnstown, PA........213,459.......134,732.......36.9%
Wheeling, WV..........208,918.......142,982.......31.6%
Scranton/WB, PA.....771,023.......555,225.......28.0%
Charleston, WV........293,631.......217,916.......25.8%
Youngstown, OH.....663,178........544,746........17.9%
Buffalo, NY............1,349,211.....1,132,804......16.0%
Pittsburgh, PA.......2,768,938......2,342,299.....15.4%
Saginaw, MI...........228,059........193,307.......15.2%
Utica, NY...............340,670........293,803.......13.8%
Cleveland, OH........2,321,037....2,055,612.......11.4%
Flint, MI................450,449........408,615.........9.3%
Binghamton, NY.......268,328........244,094........9.0%
Duluth, MN.............304,528........279,227........8.3%
New Orleans, LA.....1,337,726.....1,268,883.......5.1%

balletomane · #**103** Posted **May 4, 2017, 10:59 AM**

Thanks for sharing ChiSoxRox!

I guess its safe to say that Johnstown, PA is the epitome of the shrinking American metropolis, on paper anyways.

balletomane · #**104** Posted **May 4, 2017, 10:13 PM**

Statistics have been the main topic of discussion in this thread, but of those cities that have lost over 50% of their population, which ones are some of the most dangerous and most "ghetto" in the US?

Population decline is an easy way of analyzing the decline of the city as a whole, but that doesn't always mean that the quality of life is greatly reduced.

From the perspective of an outsider, Highland Park, East St Louis, Youngstown, Hamtramck, Gary, Chester, East Chicago and Flint strike me as the cities that have declined in population, but also in quality of life. They seem to be those "ghettoized" cities.

On the other hand, Johnstown, McKeesport, Wheeling, Wilkes-Barre, Niagara Falls and Saginaw seem to still be okay in the services that they are able to provide for their residents. Maybe there are some issues, but they aren't as apparent in the other above cities.

St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are all very large cities, and thus they have there fair share of "ghettoized" neighborhoods and good neighborhoods, so they can't be lumped as easily into one category.

Is this analysis correct in any way, or at all the reality for any of these cities?

The North One · #**105** Posted **May 4, 2017, 10:27 PM**

Johnstown...

Isn't that the place where the dam built to support a pond for a billionaire social club collapsed and destroyed the city?

Yuri · #**106** Posted **May 4, 2017, 10:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox

Scanning through MSAs, here's a list of current metro areas that are more than 5% off of their peaks.

I'm using this map from the Census Bureau for the definitions.

Metro........Peak.....2016.....Drop

Johnstown, PA........213,459.......134,732.......36.9%

(...)

As I mentioned in early pages, above 1 million people, only Pittsburgh and Buffalo dropped. For Cleveland, Akron MSA should be added for a better definition of metro area, and in this case the drop is rather small.

Outside the US, only Genoa has watched a similar drop from the peak. In fact, they might be the only metropolis in the modern history to has dropped below 1 million after had reached this mark.

Glasgow might have been another example, but I can find numbers for their urban/metro area to confirm.

ChiSoxRox · #**107** Posted **May 5, 2017, 12:50 AM**

I stuck with MSAs, since CSAs combine cities that are tenuously connected today, and thus were practically independent back in the 1970s or earlier when many of those highs were set.

For another table: any CSA (peaking) over 1 million that is not at a current high within its modern boundaries.

City, Peak, 2016, Drop

Pittsburgh..............3,125,025.........2,635,228........15.7%
Buffalo...................1,430,877.........1,210,481........15.4%
Cleveland................3,695,009.........3,483,311........5.7%
Detroit....................5,456,428.........5,318,653........2.5%
New Orleans.............1,530,861.........1,501,213........1.9%

There doesn't seem to be any American CSA/MSA to cross the million mark and then fall back below.

Also Chicago, Milwaukee, Hartford, and Rochester, NY have posted fractions of a percent for drops in recent estimates. The New Orleans CSA is on track to be at a new high by 2020.

ThePhun1 · #**108** Posted **May 5, 2017, 8:09 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by the urban politician

Well, not really.

In 1917 New York had absolutely zero competition. Sure there was Chicago but it was still a far second place.

Fast forward to now and there are a lot of places where you can make it "big" without being in New York. And I'm not just talking about in the US, but internationally. But just in the US you have LA and Hollywood, the Bay Area and tech, Houston and energy, etc. In 1917 none of these options existed. If you were trying to be big you were basically only in New York, and in some cases Chicago.

There's no bigger center of attention and draw than New York and that includes LA. Other places have grown but no place is even close to New York. You have places like Vegas with tourists and entertainers but without the business travelers. Chicago is close financially but isn't nearly as popular with the media and tourists.

I'd compare it to the US' place in the world, other places have grown and become powerful and popular but the US is still is prominent today as it was 70 years ago.

balletomane · #**109** Posted **May 5, 2017, 11:07 AM**

Additional information on the cities (municipal limits) that have lost 50% of their population or more:

City, % decline from peak, % below poverty line, violent crime rate/1,000, largest ethnic group

Highland Park, MI.....-79.3%.....57.4%.....15.3.....African American
Johnstown, PA..........-70.3%.....43.8%.....5.5......White
East St. Louis, IL......-67.5%.....49.2%.....33.2.....African American
McKeesport, PA........-64.9%.....38.0%.....19.5.....White
Detroit, MI..............-63.4%.....48.1%.....17.6.....African American
St. Louis, MO...........-63.2%.....30.0%.....18.3.....African American
Youngstown, OH.......-62.0%.....45.4%.....7.3.......White
Hamtramck, MI........-60.9%.....54.1%.....9.8.......White
Cleveland, OH..........-57.6%.....42.6%.....15.8.....African American
Gary, IN..................-56.7%.....38.6%.....6.1.......African American
Buffalo, NY..............-55.5%......38.9%.....11.3.....White
Wheeling, WV..........-55.2%......23.5%.....9.2.......White
Pittsburgh, PA..........-55.0%......27.6%.....7.3.......White
Wilkes-Barre, PA......-52.9%......32.5%.....7.0.......White
Niagara Falls, NY......-52.2%......37.2%.....11.5.....White
East Chicago, IN.......-50.2%......40.4%.....8.8......Hispanic
Flint, MI..................-50.1%......50.8%.....15.0.....African American
Saginaw, MI.............-49.8%......44.4%.....18.3.....African American

I'm assuming that Flint, MI will move up quite a bit on this list due to the ongoing water crisis by the 2020 census. Especially now that residents are going to potentially lose their homes for refusing to pay for the water.

Docta_Love · #**110** Posted **May 5, 2017, 2:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by balletomane

Additional information on the cities (municipal limits) that have lost 50% of their population or more:

City, % decline from peak, % below poverty line, violent crime rate/1,000, largest ethnic group

Highland Park, MI.....-79.3%.....57.4%.....15.3.....African American
Johnstown, PA..........-70.3%.....43.8%.....5.5......White
East St. Louis, IL......-67.5%.....49.2%.....33.2.....African American
McKeesport, PA........-64.9%.....38.0%.....19.5.....White
Detroit, MI..............-63.4%.....48.1%.....17.6.....African American
St. Louis, MO...........-63.2%.....30.0%.....18.3.....African American
Youngstown, OH.......-62.0%.....45.4%.....7.3.......White
Hamtramck, MI........-60.9%.....54.1%.....9.8.......White
Cleveland, OH..........-57.6%.....42.6%.....15.8.....African American
Gary, IN..................-56.7%.....38.6%.....6.1.......African American
Buffalo, NY..............-55.5%......38.9%.....11.3.....White
Wheeling, WV..........-55.2%......23.5%.....9.2.......White
Pittsburgh, PA..........-55.0%......27.6%.....7.3.......White
Wilkes-Barre, PA......-52.9%......32.5%.....7.0.......White
Niagara Falls, NY......-52.2%......37.2%.....11.5.....White
East Chicago, IN.......-50.2%......40.4%.....8.8......Hispanic
Flint, MI..................-50.1%......50.8%.....15.0.....African American
Saginaw, MI.............-49.8%......44.4%.....18.3.....African American

I'm assuming that Flint, MI will move up quite a bit on this list due to the ongoing water crisis by the 2020 census. Especially now that residents are going to potentially lose their homes for refusing to pay for the water.

Flint will undoubtedly continue its population decline continue but there are several factors both positive and negative that may blunt the rate of decline. First the positive, just like how redevelopment and population increase in downtown Detroit continued during the period of the great recession through the municipal bankruptcy redevelopment in downtown Flint and investment in and around the university district can said to be continuing.

But the number of new downtown residents and increase in student housing isn't that great what one needs to realize about Flint residents is that many who had the means before the water crisis to leave did already and many hold outs who were "making a stand" gave up during the great recession. Now imagine yourself as a current resident of Flint who in theory has the means to leave but had most of your assets as most american's do tied up in their home what the water crisis did to you...

Even though ~100 million dollars of federal funds has just been unlocked by the state matching part of the funds to replace the city's water mains and lead service lines and Flint will be in the long run now a permanent part of the Detroit water system but its going to take a few years to complete the replacement of all the lines. Until then who is going to want to buy a house in Flint with a lead service line? What makes the crisis so bad is for most there isn't an option to just jump ship and for many this was the case even before the crisis started.

Crawford · #**111** Posted **May 5, 2017, 3:29 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by balletomane

From the perspective of an outsider, Highland Park, East St Louis, Youngstown, Hamtramck, Gary, Chester, East Chicago and Flint strike me as the cities that have declined in population, but also in quality of life. They seem to be those "ghettoized" cities.

On the other hand, Johnstown, McKeesport, Wheeling, Wilkes-Barre, Niagara Falls and Saginaw seem to still be okay in the services that they are able to provide for their residents. Maybe there are some issues, but they aren't as apparent in the other above cities.

St. Louis, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Pittsburgh are all very large cities, and thus they have there fair share of "ghettoized" neighborhoods and good neighborhoods, so they can't be lumped as easily into one category.

Is this analysis correct in any way, or at all the reality for any of these cities?

Hamtramck isn't remotely "ghetto". It has declined, no doubt, but is relatively safe and vibrant. Like Highland Park, it's basically an inner-city neighborhood of Detroit that happens to be a separate municipality.

Hamtramck was a Polish enclave until 20 years ago, when it received a huge new wave of Muslim immigrants. It's now probably the most Muslim city in the U.S. and has the highest % of immigrants in Michigan. Think of it as a semi-depressed-looking immigrant enclave. Few blacks, almost no Hispanics, very limited abandonment.

I would say Detroit is somewhat distinct from Buffalo, St. Louis, Pittsburgh in that there isn't a large "zone of prosperity" like in the other cities. There's really no "good side" of town in Detroit. There are no residential neighborhoods among the most affluent/desirable in the overall metro. The gayborhood, the progressive urbanite areas, tend to be inner suburbs, rather than city proper.

Cleveland, to me, is somewhat in between a Pittsburgh and Detroit, with a bit more inner city prosperity than Detroit but nothing like the enclaves in Pittsburgh.

eschaton · #**112** Posted **May 5, 2017, 3:40 PM**

Real serious blight in Pittsburgh occupies less than a quarter of the city these days. Basically some historically black neighborhoods which have yet to be reconstructed (e.g., most of the Middle Hill, Homewood, Larimer, California-Kirkbride), along with a few white or mixed areas which declined for idiosyncratic reasons (Esplen, Spring Garden). A lot of what has been demolished were houses on steep slopes where homes never should have been built to begin with, with those areas having returned to nature to such a large degree you'd never know they were dense once. And of course housing units were lost due to highways, industrial expansion, and general urban renewal, as was the case everywhere.

Crawford · #**113** Posted **May 5, 2017, 4:46 PM**

Pittsburgh also has a lot of schizophrenic streetscapes where it's a weird blend of urban, suburban and rural, and where it was likely much denser in the past.

This kind of stuff:

https://www.google.com/maps/@40.4540...7i13312!8i6656

NorthernDancer · #**114** Posted **May 5, 2017, 8:57 PM**

I spent less than one full day in Pittsburgh, so can't comment on it too much, but parts of it felt almost rural.

Steely Dan · #**115** Posted **May 5, 2017, 9:09 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by NorthernDancer

I spent less than one full day in Pittsburgh, so can't comment on it too much, but parts of it felt almost rural.

pdxtex · #**116** Posted **May 5, 2017, 10:51 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leo the Dog

And of those two, Chicago dominates as it utilizes it's lakefront better than Toronto's. The lakefront abutting Toronto looks like a lagoon compared to Chi.

Shots fired!

that's when you go to the toronto islands, which are awesome.

pdxtex · #**117** Posted **May 5, 2017, 10:56 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Crawford

Hamtramck isn't remotely "ghetto". It has declined, no doubt, but is relatively safe and vibrant. Like Highland Park, it's basically an inner-city neighborhood of Detroit that happens to be a separate municipality.

Hamtramck was a Polish enclave until 20 years ago, when it received a huge new wave of Muslim immigrants. It's now probably the most Muslim city in the U.S. and has the highest % of immigrants in Michigan. Think of it as a semi-depressed-looking immigrant enclave. Few blacks, almost no Hispanics, very limited abandonment.

I would say Detroit is somewhat distinct from Buffalo, St. Louis, Pittsburgh in that there isn't a large "zone of prosperity" like in the other cities. There's really no "good side" of town in Detroit. There are no residential neighborhoods among the most affluent/desirable in the overall metro. The gayborhood, the progressive urbanite areas, tend to be inner suburbs, rather than city proper.

Cleveland, to me, is somewhat in between a Pittsburgh and Detroit, with a bit more inner city prosperity than Detroit but nothing like the enclaves in Pittsburgh.

cleveland has great infrastructure and way less abandonment than either detroit or pittsburgh. parts of east cleveland are pretty scary and there are a few weird pockets east of downtown but overall, its in very good shape. it just has some growth and crime issues is still needs to contend with.

Docere · #**118** Posted **May 5, 2017, 11:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdxtex

cleveland has great infrastructure and way less abandonment than either detroit or pittsburgh. parts of east cleveland are pretty scary and there are a few weird pockets east of downtown but overall, its in very good shape. it just has some growth and crime issues is still needs to contend with.

Cleveland is in better shape than Pittsburgh? Not so sure about that.

balletomane · #**119** Posted **May 5, 2017, 11:04 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by pdxtex

cleveland has great infrastructure and way less abandonment than either detroit or pittsburgh. parts of east cleveland are pretty scary and there are a few weird pockets east of downtown but overall, its in very good shape. it just has some growth and crime issues is still needs to contend with.

How much abandonment does Pittsburgh really have? For a municipality that has lost 55% of its population it seems to lack entire abandoned neighborhoods. I don't know the city that well so maybe that isn't really the case.

balletomane · #**120** Posted **May 5, 2017, 11:07 PM**

Does anyone else find it somewhat interesting that of the 18 urban municipalities that have lost 50% or more of their population, half have majority white populations?

All of these cities might be described by some as a ghetto, whether that is mostly true or not, just because of their popular reputation. Generally, people seem to associate ghettos with African American poverty and crime, but 9 of those cities are majority white, 8 majority African American and 1 Hispanic.