Federal Election

[McC]

Preliminary Observations:
The central ridings hardly change at all: no changes that I can see in Ottawas Centre, Vanier and West-Nepean, and only a minor re-alignment of a bit of Ottawa South's southwest boundary by the airport, which moves from the River to Riverside Dr, with Nepean-Carleton taking over the little finger between Limebank, the River and HuntClub.

All the changes I can see involve shifting the rural ridings further out and creating/consolidating a more coherent belt of suburban/exurban ridings around Ottawa:

There's a new riding pf "Nepean" carved out of Nepean-Carleton, bounded by the River to the east, Bankfield/Brophy to the south, Eagleson (except Bridlewood) to the west, and the 417 Railway and HuntClub to the North

Nepean Carleton gobbles up Richmond and Stitsville to make up for the loss.

Carleton-Kanata is carved out of Carleton-Missippi Mills, covering everything from March, Durnobin, Constance Bay, Fitzroy, Atrim, Huntley, Kanata Lakes, Katimavik and Bridlewood, to the edges of Ashton and Arnprior. The rest of Missippi Mills is added to a redrawn Lanark-Frontenac-etc.

The eastern boundary of Ottawa Orleans expands to add development on the east side of Trim Road

[McC]

Originally Posted by Capital Shaun

I live in Beacon Hill South. I'm glad they fixed the boundary and that I'll be in the Ottawa-Vanier riding instead of Ottawa-Orleans.

That's true, I missed that one, thanks for catching it! The Queensway becomes the southeast boundary of Ottawa-Vanier from Blair to the Greenbelt.

Totally my bad, it should have been obvious, since the old ridings are represented in brown, while for contrast, the changes are represented in brown.

[lrt's friend]

Why doesn't Nepean-Carleton get a name change? It no longer includes any part of Nepean.

[McC]

that's a good question. Suggest amending to: "Nottawa-Carleton."

[J.OT13]

The changes (or at least the new riding) seem to make sense. Barrhaven has grown faster than any other part of the city, therefore a new Nepean riding. And we seem to be proportionally represented in Ontario (we represent 1/13 of the population and we received 1/15 of the new ridings, I won't complain).

I'm interested in seeing what will happen on the Quebec side (and Alberta).

[McC]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

The changes (or at least the new riding) seem to make sense. Barrhaven has grown faster than any other part of the city, therefore a new Nepean riding. And we seem to be proportionally represented in Ontario (we represent 1/13 of the population and we received 1/15 of the new ridings, I won't complain).

I'm interested in seeing what will happen on the Quebec side (and Alberta).

The proposal for Alberta has already been released.
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...t=index&lang=e
I think Quebec is there too.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

The changes (or at least the new riding) seem to make sense. Barrhaven has grown faster than any other part of the city, therefore a new Nepean riding. And we seem to be proportionally represented in Ontario (we represent 1/13 of the population and we received 1/15 of the new ridings, I won't complain).

I'm interested in seeing what will happen on the Quebec side (and Alberta).

Looks like they were on drugs when they picked the name for the easternmost riding (Petite-Nation). The Petite-Nation river is far east of there!

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...s/Gatineau.pdf

[J.OT13]

Here's how I'm seeing it;

Calgary up 8 to 10

Edmonton up 8 to 9

Ottawa up 7 to 8, not counting Gatineau.

Gatineau stays the same at 3 but with significant, questionable, boundary shifts.

I didn't see any numbers for each province, but I do remember them saying that Quebec would keep the same, proportional to the current ridings, representation. If so, wouldn't Gatineau have gained at least one riding?

[toaster]

The population in Nepean-Carleton is lower than even many of the Northern Ontario ridings. I don't see how that can be considered proportional representation when someone in the North has can drive over 10 hours to go from one side of the riding to the other, yet has a larger population than an urban Ottawa riding.

[J.OT13]

Originally Posted by toaster

The population in Nepean-Carleton is lower than even many of the Northern Ontario ridings. I don't see how that can be considered proportional representation when someone in the North has can drive over 10 hours to go from one side of the riding to the other, yet has a larger population than an urban Ottawa riding.

Ottawa vs. Ontario population is proportional. I suspect that Northern Ontario's under-representation is likely due to the GTA's over representation.

Now I can't confirm this, mostly because I don't want to spend my time counting ridings in southern Ontario, but if someone else wants to take the time, be my guest.

[toaster]

Originally Posted by J.OT13

Ottawa vs. Ontario population is proportional. I suspect that Northern Ontario's under-representation is likely due to the GTA's over representation.

Now I can't confirm this, mostly because I don't want to spend my time counting ridings in southern Ontario, but if someone else wants to take the time, be my guest.

No it isn't. Like I said, the Nepean-Carleton riding has a population of about 90k. That is significantly below the provincial average. If your talking about the Ottawa average, then maybe. But surely the ridings can be redistributed in a better manner, so that Ottawa-Centre and Orleans populations aren't over populated.

[m0nkyman]

There may be some calculation of growth rates used in the allocation. Ridings that are growing fast may look like they have too small a population, but in five years may be expected to have grown significantly.

[gjhall]

Originally Posted by toaster

No it isn't. Like I said, the Nepean-Carleton riding has a population of about 90k. That is significantly below the provincial average. If your talking about the Ottawa average, then maybe. But surely the ridings can be redistributed in a better manner, so that Ottawa-Centre and Orleans populations aren't over populated.

Sorry, but that's false, Nepean-Carleton is one of the most populous ridings in the country, with 159,000 residents, http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...chPR=01&B1=All

[McC]

Originally Posted by gjhall

Sorry, but that's false, Nepean-Carleton is one of the most populous ridings in the country, with 159,000 residents, http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-re...chPR=01&B1=All

You're both correct! Geoff is right, Nepean-Carleton's current boundaries have that pop of nearly 160K, and toaster is also right, as the proposed boundaries shrink Nepean-Carleton down to just under 92K (Census 2011), which is a couple of thousand shy of some of the bigger Nortario ridings, as toaster says. But the population in the North is flat or even declining (Kenora) whereas we can expect thousands more people to be living in Riverside South and Stittsville by the time the proposed changes would come into effect, and presumably the Commission is taking that into account their rationale, although they don't say so in the document explaining their reasons for the proposals, so there you are....

The Commission proposes that the electoral district of Nepean—Carleton be comprised of the current electoral district, adjusted as follows: plus that portion of the current electoral district of Carleton—Mississippi Mills lying south of Terry Fox Drive and Highways No. 7 and 417; less the proposed new electoral district of Nepean. It has a population of 91,550 and is 13.81% below the provincial quota.
http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...t=page6&lang=e

[bradnixon]

Originally Posted by McC

...the proposed boundaries shrink Nepean-Carleton down to just under 92K (Census 2011)...we can expect thousands more people to be living in Riverside South and Stittsville by the time the proposed changes would come into effect.

I think this comment illustrates how bizarre the boundaries for the new "Nepean Carleton" are.

What do Stittsville and Riverside South have in common that they would be in the same riding? They're on opposite ends of the city with completely different concerns.

Riverside South and Leitrim should be part of Ottawa South.

[Ottawan]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

I think this comment illustrates how bizarre the boundaries for the new "Nepean Carleton" are.

What do Stittsville and Riverside South have in common that they would be in the same riding? They're on opposite ends of the city with completely different concerns.

Riverside South and Leitrim should be part of Ottawa South.

But Ottawa South is already quite overpopulated (and coincidentally, a strong Liberal seat).

The Commission proposes that the boundaries of the electoral district of OTTAWA SOUTH be adjusted along the Rideau River. It has a population of 121,894 and is 14.76% above the provincial quota.

I think ultimately there will need to be a new seat in Ottawa South / East. It is clear that east of the Rideau (and Ottawa Centre) are less well represented than west. However, the underrepresentation for the west was worse prior to these changes, so despite them giving an advantage to the Conservatives (I always find it suspect when the government in power benefits from what is essentially the exercise of that power) I think they make enough sense for the time being to not be protest-worthy.

It becomes clear, however, that the next changes will require a new riding in the east/south. Probably dividing Ottawa South into a new Ottawa South (one which includes Riverside South), and an 'Alta Vista' riding which would take chunks from the other surrounding ridings (which in turn would be redistributed to take chunks from the Orleans riding). For example, Blackburn Hamlet could join Ottawa-Vanier while Overbrook could join Alta Vista, or something of the sort.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by bradnixon

I think this comment illustrates how bizarre the boundaries for the new "Nepean Carleton" are.

What do Stittsville and Riverside South have in common that they would be in the same riding? They're on opposite ends of the city with completely different concerns.

Riverside South and Leitrim should be part of Ottawa South.

Ottawa, plus Lanark County and Prescott-Russell, together have a population of 1,060,000. That forms 10 ridings, each averaging about 106,000 if possible.

IMO, Stittsville and Kanata should be - together - one riding, named Kanata-Stittsville. Remaining rural parts of Goulbourn, and West Carleton and Rideau should be tied to Lanark County. Lanark should be connected with rural Ottawa, not the counties to the west. Call that Lanark-Carleton (again).

The new Nepean riding should remove the areas inside the Greenbelt, and instead add Riverside South and Leitrim (basically, south Nepean and south Gloucester), into a new riding, perhaps Barrhaven-Leitrim. With the Armstrong Bridge in place, they will be a natural connection.

Ottawa-Orleans is okay, although it should have a lower population to account for suburban growth. It should be named Orleans (no need for Ottawa as it includes none of the old City of Ottawa). Perhaps removing Blackburn Hamlet (to Ottawa-Vanier) would be a good idea. That new riding should be Ottawa East-Vanier.

With the addition of Blackburn Hamlet, the K1N postal code (Lower Town, Sandy Hill) should be moved to Ottawa Centre, to place all of downtown in one riding. In turn, the western areas - west of Island Park and Carleton Heights - move out.

That leaves three ridings for the southern and western urban areas. It is impossible to use the Rideau River now as a boundary as Ottawa South is overpopulated. As a result, the area west of the Airport Parkway (Uplands, Hunt Club, Mooney's Bay) move out, into Ottawa-Rideau River. That also includes Carleton Heights (from Ottawa Centre) and the area east of Woodroffe Avenue, south of Baseline Road and north of the Greenbelt (from Nepean and Ottawa West-Nepean).

Ottawa-Nepean would include the remaining areas north/east of the Greenbelt and west of Pinecrest Creek and Woodroffe Avenue, including Bells Corners.

The balance - north of Baseline, between Island Park and Pinecrest Creek - would form Ottawa West.

Nepean-Carleton is gone. Osgoode moves into Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, which would be renamed Carleton-Prescott-Russell. North Glengarry would have to be shuffled.

[Uhuniau]

Originally Posted by McC

Proposed new federal riding boundaries for Ontario have been released. I haven't looked at them yet to see how they compare to eternallyme's (predictions? model? suggestions? guess? whatever you want to call it!); anyway, let's meet back here later to discuss.

http://www.redecoupage-federal-redis...t=index&lang=e

Outside the Nepean and Kanata changes, it's only minor tinkering. And, surprisingly, no change at all in Centre?