Population Sweepstakes

[Denscity]

8300 in town is the highest we've ever been.
Not included is Area I and J which each adds roughly 3500 people.

And again a third of my friends are from Calgary and a quarter (and rising) are from Ontario.

[urbandreamer]

Everyone I met in Alberta were either born in Ontario or going to university there.

[phone]

Hmm yes people do move from one province to another. I have encountered these people on occasion too in my quaint little burgh. Once I even met an American! I wonder if we have some kind of administrative agency that is tasked with evaluating how closely our anecdotal experience aligns with broader scale reality.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

According to the United Nations:

The current metro area population of Montreal in 2022 is 4,277,000
The metro area population of Montreal in 1950 was 1,343,000



I don't really foresee any scenario that would have Calgary eclipsing Montreal in the next 50 years. Look at the wooty population growth percentages of Montreal in the 50s and 60s, when Montreal's then population was more comparable to Calgary's today population. This does not persist once a city hits a certain size.

Montreal summers are great. Not quite as muggy as Toronto. Winters are very cold, brutal, but with quite a bit of sunshine. Spring is vanishingly fast. Fall (at least October) is very, very nice in Montreal.

Snow free months:
Guaranteed:
June, July, August, September

Very rare snowfall:
May, October

5 'guaranteed' snow free months is correct. Snow in May is very rare, and if it happens, it comes in the first week. It almost never snows in October....heck, it is more likely to snow in October here in London (Ont) than in Montreal.

Like for you, often hot and humid summers are in fact a plus for many people.

It's nice to be able to sit outside in a swimsuit at 11 pm for most of the summer.

[Architype]

Originally Posted by Acajack

Like for you, often hot and humid summers are in fact a plus for many people.

It's nice to be able to sit outside in a swimsuit at 11 pm for most of the summer.

If cities depended entirely on weather for growth, Vancouver would certainly be Canada's largest city.

However, the most likely Canadian city to eclipse Montreal is Tornotno (sorry4datypo), and they have already done that.

The only other Canadian city likely to do the same is Vaincouver.

Montreal population in 1901: 325,653/360,838 (cty/isl)
Vancouver population in 1901: 26,000
Vancouver has played catch-up very well.


Klick twice for larger image:

[urbandreamer]

In Saskatoon, in a No Frills parking lot, I met a woman from BC who moved to SK years ago. I think driving an Ontario-plated car in small towns across the Prairies and BC was kind of rare, especially in May/June/July when fuel prices peaked.

[kel]

Originally Posted by urbandreamer

Everyone I met in Alberta were either born in Ontario or going to university there.

I work for a medium sized company in Edmonton that also has offices in metro Vancouver, Montreal and Toronto. The amount of requests for transfers to Edmonton from Vancouver is almost overwhelming. For the exact same job in Edmonton you get 12% higher pay, no PST and an extreamly lower cost of living (although costs are skyrocketing everywhere). When I made the move to Alberta 16 years ago from Toronto I was worried about the winters but it is not all that bad. Usually less than 14 days below -20, most winter days are always sunny and along with a 10 day end of January Mexican vacation makes it easily bearable. Personally it was the best move I ever made.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by Architype

If cities depended entirely on weather for growth, Vancouver would certainly be Canada's largest city.

However, the most likely Canadian city to eclipse Montreal is Tornotno (sorry4datypo), and they have already done that.

The only other Canadian city likely to do the same is Vaincouver.

Montreal population in 1901: 325,653/360,838 (cty/isl)
Vancouver population in 1901: 26,000
Vancouver has played catch-up very well.


Klick twice for larger image:

In 1901, Vancouver was 300,000 behind Montreal.

In 2021, Vancouver CMA is nearly 2,000,000 behind Montreal CMA.

The gap is growing, not the other way around

[wg_flamip]

Originally Posted by phone

Hmm yes people do move from one province to another. I have encountered these people on occasion too in my quaint little burgh. Once I even met an American! I wonder if we have some kind of administrative agency that is tasked with evaluating how closely our anecdotal experience aligns with broader scale reality.

This is why SSP needs a "like" button.

[ssiguy]

Originally Posted by Denscity

Zero percent of my friends from Calgary are retirees.

If I was a retiree looking for a better climate, the Kootenays would not be my first choice. Stats speak for themselves. Alberta has a younger population than BC by 5 years and experiences positive natural increase while BC is negative.

My point is that, for young people, Calgary, and Alberta in general is a natural draw, and always has been. Calgary has always been near the top of the population growth of Canadian CMAs I don't think that will change anytime soon.

Yes, a lot can happen in 60 years but the reality is that in 1950, Calgary was one-tenth the size of Montreal and one third the size of Vancouver & Winnipeg and smaller than Ottawa and Edmonton. Alberta will also overtake BC in 15 years and will probably over take Quebec in 50.

Calgary has so much going for it and that momentum will only grow.

[Denscity]

You live in White Rock which is a beautiful place on the ocean with palm trees and one of the mildest winters in the country. So ya moving here will get you cooler winters and although that makes for great snowboarding you live in one of the best places. But if you love Calgary that much why did you move to Vancouver and stay there?

[urbandreamer]

White Rock is nicer than Calgary, you're close to USA and Vancouver. The only negative is you gotta drive through Surrey to get anywhere.
https://imgur.com/a/qGQFjao

[Architype]

Originally Posted by lio45

In 1901, Vancouver was 300,000 behind Montreal.

In 2021, Vancouver CMA is nearly 2,000,000 behind Montreal CMA.

The gap is growing, not the other way around

In 1901 Montreal was 12 times the size of Vancouver.

In 2022 it is only about 1.6 times the size of Vancouver.

Your logic will get you banni de la société.

[mapleleaf66]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

If I was a retiree looking for a better climate, the Kootenays would not be my first choice. Stats speak for themselves. Alberta has a younger population than BC by 5 years and experiences positive natural increase while BC is negative.

My point is that, for young people, Calgary, and Alberta in general is a natural draw, and always has been. Calgary has always been near the top of the population growth of Canadian CMAs I don't think that will change anytime soon.

Yes, a lot can happen in 60 years but the reality is that in 1950, Calgary was one-tenth the size of Montreal and one third the size of Vancouver & Winnipeg and smaller than Ottawa and Edmonton. Alberta will also overtake BC in 15 years and will probably over take Quebec in 50.

Calgary has so much going for it and that momentum will only grow.

Agreed. The cost of living has become the #1 issue for millennials and many cannot afford to live in Toronto or Vancouver anymore. It isn't just home prices but rents as well. It is actually cheaper to buy a house in Calgary or Edmonton than rent although interest rates are closing that gap. Once you get used to the weather (and you do) it is a great province to live in.

[craner]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

But to the point: DID ANYONE, EVER IN THE HISTORY OF CIVILIZATION, MOVE TO CALGARY FOR THE WEATHER?

True enough but I think you could ask the same question of Montreal.

[craner]

Originally Posted by Northern Light

You know what Calgary doesn't have?

Endless amounts of water.

Water shortages in southern Alberta are already a concern. Calgary is pouring money into mitigating drought risks.......

But can it fully compensate for climate change? For less snow and snow melt on glacier-fed rivers?

South of Calgary, water allocations are largely fully subscribed for farmers and industry.

I see that as a material growth-limiting factor in time.

Some of that can be offset by conservation, and by better and more water storage during peak-flows/rains; but that has its limits.

Well we are landlocked and all.

[MolsonExport]

Originally Posted by craner

True enough but I think you could ask the same question of Montreal.

I am quite sure it was never the primary factor. The only places in Canada where weather 'could' be the primary factor are Vancouver/Lower Mainland, the Okanagan/Similkameen/Thompson Valleys, Sunshine Coast, lower Vancouver Island, and maybe Whistler.

[thewave46]

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

I am quite sure it was never the primary factor. The only places in Canada where weather 'could' be the primary factor are Vancouver/Lower Mainland, the Okanagan/Similkameen/Thompson Valleys, Sunshine Coast, lower Vancouver Island, and maybe Whistler.

Indeed.

Which is why I generally look to other factors to explain population growth.

If weather was the primary factor in how people really chose where they lived writ large, Canada would be even more uninhabited and few would immigrate here.

But it does speak to the Canadian-ness of the forum to get into a big ol’ weather debate after a population one.

[MolsonExport]

You know what is also great about the corridor? Being close to half the major cities in Canada. Living in London, within 1 hour I can drive to Kitchener-Waterloo, within 2 hours, Toronto, Windsor, Hamilton, Saint Catharines/Niagara, are in reach, within 6-8 hours, Ottawa and Montreal, within 10 hours, Quebec City. And I am leaving out a pile of 100K-ish urban areas within that catchment area (e.g., Kingston, Brantford, Oshawa, Trois Rivieres, Peterborough, Sarnia, Sherbrooke), plus the American cities of Detroit, Chicago, Buffalo, Cleveland, New York city, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Milwaukee, Washington/Baltimore, Indianapolis, among others, are within that 10 hour catchment.

This is a big draw for many businesses, and residents.

[ssiguy]

Ya, London is sorta in the middles of everything. Of course this isn't just Canadian cities but also big US ones like Detroit, Cleveland, and especially Chicago.

Going anywhere west of Toronto, whether that be US or Canada, requires going thru London. This not only applies to cars but also transport traffic and both passenger and freight rail.