Who will replace Harper?

[PoscStudent]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I only watched a leadership debate thinger or whatever hosted by preston manning(probably all I'll do if he's chosen) but he seems to be more interested in mass appeal and promises.

His voting base will be based on good PR rather than fighting for a specific agenda.

I.e. he'll be a very catch all moderate.Which is the last thing I think any political institution needs.

So trying to appeal to Canadians is an issue?

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by PoscStudent

So trying to appeal to Canadians is an issue?

Any politician that is overly worried about getting popularity is an issue.

It's the fallacy of compromise that is truly destroying politics and quite ironically leading to "populist" uprisings.


You can't go half way to the moon.

If something is to be done, you have to reach your objective, in my opinion leaders based on appeal are big on getting everyones hopes lit up, and deliver nothing.

To me this is exactly what truddeau is doing.

Unfocused political action is wasteful.

It's why I'd oddly centrist and totally not.

Anyways I've been thinking about it, O learly would get my vote if he didn't get into free trade nonsense(which he likely may).

[Loco101]

I really don't think Kevin O'Leary will be the next CPC leader BUT IF HE WINS...

What electoral district would he run in?

My guess would be Parry Sound-Muskoka. He has a house on Lake Joseph. And his views would be more appealing to people in that area. They voted for outsider Tony Clement so that says something. I just can't see him running somewhere in Toronto. He could play it safe and run somewhere in the rural Prairies.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I really don't think Kevin O'Leary will be the next CPC leader BUT IF HE WINS...

What electoral district would he run in?

My guess would be Parry Sound-Muskoka. He has a house on Lake Joseph. And his views would be more appealing to people in that area. They voted for outsider Tony Clement so that says something. I just can't see him running somewhere in Toronto.

Why not in montreal?

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Why not in montreal?

Haha, now that would be funny and a death wish for him.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Haha, now that would be funny and a death wish for him.

I assumed he'd get in if he went to some conservative part of the province.


The guy has zero interest in being a career politician.

His entire sales pitch seems to be think big or go home.

Its seems like an appropriate gamble.

[Docere]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I really don't think Kevin O'Leary will be the next CPC leader BUT IF HE WINS...

What electoral district would he run in?

My guess would be Parry Sound-Muskoka. He has a house on Lake Joseph. And his views would be more appealing to people in that area. They voted for outsider Tony Clement so that says something. I just can't see him running somewhere in Toronto. He could play it safe and run somewhere in the rural Prairies.

I agree he'd go with Parry Sound-Muskoka. He could also try an exurban GTA riding like Dufferin-Caledon.

If he's a bit more ambitious, there were some very close seats in York Region last time and he could do well among suburban nouveau riche types. Aurora could be a good fit for O'Leary.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I assumed he'd get in if he went to some conservative part of the province.


The guy has zero interest in being a career politician.

His entire sales pitch seems to be think big or go home.

Its seems like an appropriate gamble.

That's probably going to hurt him badly as his timing isn't great. I would be pretty hard for him to win after the Liberals have been in power for only one term. If he was doing it after two terms then he would likely be taken more seriously.

If he ran for a seat in a conservative part of Quebec he would have to speak fluent French which he doesn't.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Docere

I agree he'd go with Parry Sound-Muskoka. He could also try an exurban GTA riding like Dufferin-Caledon.

If he's a bit more ambitious, there were some very close seats in York Region last time and he could do well among suburban nouveau riche types. Aurora could be a good fit for O'Leary.

Yes the ones you mentioned are certainly possibilities.

[thurmas]

Tories and Liberals now tied at 34% a piece. Young people deserting the Liberals in droves.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/09...ide-poll/95816

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...tional-ballot/

[jmt18325]

That's unlikely to last. It's a blip response to electoral reform being abandoned.

[MonctonRad]

Originally Posted by jmt18325

That's unlikely to last. It's a blip response to electoral reform being abandoned.

I'm surprised to see the abandoned electoral reform promise having such an impact.

If I recall from the last election, it was a promise the Liberals hardly talked about. The last election was more of an anti-Harper slugfest with oodles of strategic voting going on. Electoral reform wasn't even on the radar (at least around here).

[JHikka]

In that campaign research poll Trudeau's disapproval rises geographically from East to West - the further West one goes the more likely they are to dislike Trudeau. Their numbers also indicate that 52% of respondents 35 and under disapprove of Trudeau. Higher than i'd imagine.

Ambrose leads Prime Minister favourability in Alberta and is nearly tied with Trudeau in British Columbia. Not bad for an interim leader IMO.

[thurmas]

I think Trudeau's biggest issues is A) his gaffes ie: Electoral reform pledge, cash for fundraising dinners and B) his failure to grow the Canadian economy from it's anemic growth and his high spending which has ballooned from his original $10 billion deficits in the 2015 election.

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Tories and Liberals now tied at 34% a piece. Young people deserting the Liberals in droves.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2017/02/09...ide-poll/95816

https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...tional-ballot/

I wouldn't trust this Campaign Research company. Who are they?!?! They seem to be trying to make conservative parties appear much more popular than they actually are.

They did a provincial poll for Ontario that suggested that the majority of people in Northern Ontario would vote PC!! Which is very far from the truth and laughable.

Ontario poll: https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...ntario-ballot/

And I think they had the PCs at 50% for the entire province which is just pure comedy. We hear about "fake news" and this seems to be a "fake poll."

Check out the main people who are behind Campaign Research:
https://www.campaignresearch.ca/about-1/

Eli Yufest
Nick Kouvalis
Richard Ciano

ALL THREE of them have been heavily involved with federal and/or provincial conservative parties. Kouvalis was also Rob Ford's campaign manager.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by Loco101

They did a provincial poll for Ontario that suggested that the majority of people in Northern Ontario would vote PC!! Which is very far from the truth and laughable.

308's aggregate polling has the PCs leading Northern Ontario by a wide margin:

[1overcosc]

Originally Posted by Loco101

I wouldn't trust this Campaign Research company. Who are they?!?! They seem to be trying to make conservative parties appear much more popular than they actually are.

They did a provincial poll for Ontario that suggested that the majority of people in Northern Ontario would vote PC!! Which is very far from the truth and laughable.

Ontario poll: https://www.campaignresearch.ca/feb-...ntario-ballot/

And I think they had the PCs at 50% for the entire province which is just pure comedy. We hear about "fake news" and this seems to be a "fake poll."

Check out the main people who are behind Campaign Research:
https://www.campaignresearch.ca/about-1/

Eli Yufest
Nick Kouvalis
Richard Ciano

ALL THREE of them have been heavily involved with federal and/or provincial conservative parties. Kouvalis was also Rob Ford's campaign manager.

Yeah.. that Ontario poll they did was way too heavily skewed. They clearly have a strong right-leaning "house effect".

Besides, it's all IVR. Not particularly reliable.

Anyone have the latest Nanos numbers?

[1overcosc]

Found it: http://www.nanosresearch.com/data

Shows a narrowing of the Liberal lead but not nearly as dramatic.

The age and region numbers are interesting. Liberals retaining their healthy lead among those aged 18-29.. but also among those aged 60+ with the Conservatives having a slight lead among everyone in between.

Regionally the Liberals have dropped in most of the country except in Quebec where they still have a huge lead and they're still considerably higher than their 2015 election result. With those numbers, NDP-Bloc vote splitting would allow the Liberals to have a near-sweep of Quebec with something like 65-70 seats out of 78; an increase of 25-30 seats over their 2015 result there. So the Libbies could retain their majority even if they lost as many as 40 seats in the ROC.

Quebec is therefore looking very important to Trudeau's re-election chances. Watch the Liberals closely in the next little while, this fact may change their strategy.

Similarly, in the Conservative race, Maxime Bernier may choose to use this fact to this advantage.. (ie. "Pick me as leader, because we need to reduce Liberal support in Quebec!")

[lio45]

The NDP getting rid of Mulcair is likely to benefit either the Bloc or Tories though - JT's dream scenario would have been for the NDP to retain a popular, known and respected Quebec leader to ensure optimal vote splitting in the province from the LPC's point of view.

If the NDP picks someone totally unknown, which is what will probably happen, then they might very well return to where they were in 2011, i.e. nonexistence. Semi-fickle NDP voters might then come back to the Bloc or try voting for Maxime Bernier.

In any case... still way too early to tell.

[JHikka]

Originally Posted by lio45

If the NDP picks someone totally unknown, which is what will probably happen, then they might very well return to where they were in 2011, i.e. nonexistence. Semi-fickle NDP voters might then come back to the Bloc or try voting for Maxime Bernier.

2015 essentially returned them to the wilderness. 44 seats total, 16 in QC and 14 in BC. Single digits everywhere else. Their strongholds in Atlantic Canada were swept. It's possible they regain some of those old seats back but it's also possible they don't. Like you said: too early at this stage.

The most worrying potential NDP leader for the other parties is probably Jarmeet Singh...if he ever committed to running. He has the potential to cut sharply into ethnic and youth votes as well as GTA votes if he's strategic and smart enough.