Economist: Self-driving cars offer huge benefits—but have a dark side

[10023]

Too interesting for the Transportation forum...

Who is behind the wheel?
Self-driving cars offer huge benefits—but have a dark side

Policymakers must apply the lessons of the horseless carriage to the driverless car

...

Economists and urban planners should rejoice because AVs mean that, for the first time, the unwelcome externalities associated with cars can be fully priced in. In particular, dynamic road-tolling and congestion charging, adjusting the cost per kilometre according to the time of day, level of traffic, length of trip and so on, will allow fine-tuning of entire urban-transport systems. By setting taxes and tolls accordingly, planners can subsidise rides in poor districts, for example, or encourage people to use public transport for longer trips. They can also ensure that the roads do not end up full of empty vehicles looking for riders. Such granular road-pricing is the logical conclusion of existing schemes. Some cities already have congestion-charging regimes, subsidise ride-hailing in poor areas ill-served by public transport, or impose per-ride taxes on Uber, Lyft and their kind.

Yet the same tolling schemes that will let city planners minimise congestion or subsidise robotaxi services in underserved “transport deserts” have a darker side—and one to which too little attention has been paid. AVs will offer an extraordinarily subtle policy tool which can, in theory, be used to transform cities; but in the hands of authoritarian governments could also become a powerful means of social control.

...

https://www.economist.com/news/leade...r-self-driving

[hauntedheadnc]

Well, that, plus consider how much of the economy dependent upon transportation and drivers is about to evaporate.

[suburbanite]

Millions of truck drivers and taxi drivers without work will be a pretty big strain on developed countries' social security systems.

One thing I wonder about widespread autonomous vehicle use is it's effect on what you would call "non-destination" retail. The types of shops that rely more on drawing in curious passerby and not ones that people explicitly plan a trip around. Autonomous vehicles would seem to lead to a much more structured travel itinerary, where a destination is entered and the traveler spends the rest of the drive on their ipad. If you didn't know of a location beforehand, you may never discover it. Maybe we're already close to that point where people won't even go to a restaurant without prior planning and thoroughly vetting its Yelp reviews. To me though, this new type of travel lends itself even more to big-box retail and chain restaurants.

[JManc]

Two words: Johnnie Cab..

[10023]

Originally Posted by hauntedheadnc

Well, that, plus consider how much of the economy dependent upon transportation and drivers is about to evaporate.

Yep. Teamsters vs. Uber is coming soon. I can’t wait to watch them try to convince us that long-haul truckers hopped up on speed are safer than self-driving technology.

[10023]

Originally Posted by suburbanite

Millions of truck drivers and taxi drivers without work will be a pretty big strain on developed countries' social security systems.

One thing I wonder about widespread autonomous vehicle use is it's effect on what you would call "non-destination" retail. The types of shops that rely more on drawing in curious passerby and not ones that people explicitly plan a trip around. Autonomous vehicles would seem to lead to a much more structured travel itinerary, where a destination is entered and the traveler spends the rest of the drive on their ipad. If you didn't know of a location beforehand, you may never discover it. Maybe we're already close to that point where people won't even go to a restaurant without prior planning and thoroughly vetting its Yelp reviews. To me though, this new type of travel lends itself even more to big-box retail and chain restaurants.

If the retail in question is located in a walkable neighborhood then it shouldn’t matter. People will still walk past, window shop and drop in.

Do people often see something while they’re driving and pull over and park to check it out? I really have no idea.

Or maybe they’ll be more likely to stop, because they’re just staring out the window rather than focused on the road, and because they don’t have to find parking (just tell the car to drop them off). Or maybe the autonomous vehicles can offer suggestions for nearby restaurants (“Kit, find me a good Thai place around here”).

Who knows...

[Sun Belt]

• Video Link

A new video from Waymo that came out about 6 days ago.

They're now testing completely driver-less cars outside of Phoenix. Short video that explains how the technology works and learns as it logs more miles.

[dubu]

I thought driverless cars were cool last year. All the stuff needed for it is crazy and in reality you would feel like a old person or something. Most people can see well and can drive fine. It’s not that cool or futuristic

[cannedairspray]

Originally Posted by 10023

Do people often see something while they’re driving and pull over and park to check it out? I really have no idea.

Yes. Millions of times a day.

[Pedestrian]

1. There has recently been a SHORTAGE of long haul truckdrivers. What has been a romantic lifestyle for some is actually pretty unattractive for most. This will solve that problem for the industry and given that self-driving trucks are likely to be quite expensive at first, I expect them to be phased in over a fairly extended period so today’s truckers can probably keep on truckin’ for the freseeable future.

The union will, however, fight the transition because that’s what unions do and the option to go auto will hold down what has been a tendency for wages to rise to lure needed people to the jobs.

2. Dubu says “It’s not that cool or futuristic”. What brought home to me how cool it really is was an article that made the point that the technology not only has to recognize hazards or road conditions thar exist, it has to calculate and anticipate the possibilities for the immediate future. It has to recognize that the ball bouncing into the street may soon be followed by a small child chasing it or that the cyclist in the cycle lane could, at any second, veer around something into the traffic lane. That requires some high powered computing (hence the prices of stock in Nvidia, NXPI, others who make the chips).

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

They're now testing completely driver-less cars outside of Phoenix. Short video that explains how the technology works and learns as it logs more miles.

CA just recently approved them, that is driverless cars with no backup driver waiting to take over. Previously it had required that which is why much of the testing was being done in Phoenix and other places beyond Silicon Valley where many of the technology companies are.

[dubu]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

1. There has recently been a SHORTAGE of long haul truckdrivers. What has been a romantic lifestyle for some is actually pretty unattractive for most. This will solve that problem for the industry and given that self-driving trucks are likely to be quite expensive at first, I expect them to be phased in over a fairly extended period so today’s truckers can probably keep on truckin’ for the freseeable future.

The union will, however, fight the transition because that’s what unions do and the option to go auto will hold down what has been a tendency for wages to rise to lure needed people to the jobs.

2. Dubu says “It’s not that cool or futuristic”. What brought home to me how cool it really is was an article that made the point that the technology not only has to recognize hazards or road conditions thar exist, it has to calculate and anticipate the possibilities for the immediate future. It has to recognize that the ball bouncing into the street may soon be followed by a small child chasing it or that the cyclist in the cycle lane could, at any second, veer around something into the traffic lane. That requires some high powered computing (hence the prices of stock in Nvidia, NXPI, others who make the chips).

I’ve played too many cyberpunk video games (there’s actually only a coupe) and seen cyberpunk movies. That’s futuristic but it’s not like a robot that is like a human that can drive better then you. It’s cool how the driverless cars can go through a city without stopping because they are connected by the internet. That just makes cars more desirable and we want less cars. There’s already too many

[llamaorama]

I am really happy this issue is being discussed.

The other dark side of "micro-tolling"(charging fees to use conventional streets) is that it changes the nature of public space. Will pedestrians and bikes (hell, neighbors taking dogs for walks or kids playing outside)get fair treatment when they become an impediment to maximizing revenue? Will streets still be a public good or will they become another thing to privatize?

The most revolutionary thing about automated vehicles isn't the fact they drive themselves, it is the ability to manage how traffic flows and also control who can go where for what price. As with everything of this nature, there are winner and losers as mobility and the right to exist in a public space goes from a kind of human right to something where person A can afford or "deserves" more than person B. This will be yet another source of conflict and social division and authoritarian control.

[Pedestrian]

Mission District (San Francisco) cabbie attacks self-driving car
The second such attack on a driving robot in the neighborhood in four weeks
By Adam Brinklow Mar 7, 2018, 9:21am PST

Less than four weeks after an unidentified man on Valencia Street attempted to tackle a self-driving car while it waited at an intersection, another neighborhood taxi driver took matters into his own hands by stopping in the middle of traffic to deliver a blow to a robot car hard enough to scratch the window.

According to a report to the DMV (state law requires car companies to publicly report all accidents and mishaps while testing autonomous vehicles on public streets, no matter how minor), the confrontation happened on January 28 on Duboce Avenue near the corner of Guerrero.

As the automated GM Cruise’s human safety driver testifies, he was “stopped behind a taxi” and then “the driver of the taxi exited his vehicle, approached the Cruise AV, and slapped the front passenger window, causing a scratch. There were no injuries and police were not called" . . . .

https://sf.curbed.com/2018/3/7/17091...iving-car-uber

[10023]

Originally Posted by Pedestrian

2. Dubu says “It’s not that cool or futuristic”. What brought home to me how cool it really is was an article that made the point that the technology not only has to recognize hazards or road conditions thar exist, it has to calculate and anticipate the possibilities for the immediate future. It has to recognize that the ball bouncing into the street may soon be followed by a small child chasing it or that the cyclist in the cycle lane could, at any second, veer around something into the traffic lane. That requires some high powered computing (hence the prices of stock in Nvidia, NXPI, others who make the chips).

That’s pretty easy though, isn’t it?

Part of the the driving exam here (and maybe in the States, but it’s been a long time since I took that) is a computer “hazard perception” test. It shows various clips of what you’d see driving down a street, and you have to click the mouse when a hazard appears. One of those can be a ball bouncing into the street, which of course could be followed by a child, or a cyclist passing you on the curb side.

If that’s been pretty standard for probably 20 years, then I’m quite sure that Uber and Waymo have it programmed into their AI.

[Pedestrian]

Originally Posted by 10023

That’s pretty easy though, isn’t it?

Part of the the driving exam here (and maybe in the States, but it’s been a long time since I took that) is a computer “hazard perception” test. It shows various clips of what you’d see driving down a street, and you have to click the mouse when a hazard appears. One of those can be a ball bouncing into the street, which of course could be followed by a child, or a cyclist passing you on the curb side.

If that’s been pretty standard for probably 20 years, then I’m quite sure that Uber and Waymo have it programmed into their AI.

There are a near infinite number of these situations with many alternative options. No, it isn't simple for a machine and won't be until machines can really think like humans. It takes supercomputers to run all the possibilities of weather simulations. This is simpler which is why it's possible for single small chips to do it but not actually "easy" which is why the chips that do it are pretty specialized and come from different sources than regular cumputer CPUs for example. They seem to have more in common with graphic chips and specialized gaming chips.

You are talking about the software and I'm sure you are right that the companies doing this work have attempted to program all this into their systems. I am actually talking as much about the hardware. But both are not so easy to get right and flawless--and these systems need to be near flawless before they are deployed because you can be sure the backlash will be tremendous if there are any significant number of accidents that are proveably the fault of the autonomous vehicle.

So far, both hardware and software seem to be doing a pretty good job. But the jury on near flawlessness is still out. Consider this accident:

TESLA AUTOPILOT LIMITATIONS PLAYED ROLE IN DEADLY CRASH, NTSB SAYS
SEPTEMBER 13, 2017

The National Transportation Safety Board has determined the probable cause of a May 2016 crash involving a semitruck and a Tesla Model S, in which the electric sedan drove under the truck's trailer, killing the driver. According to the agency, the "truck driver’s failure to yield the right of way and a car driver’s inattention due to overreliance on vehicle automation" were determined as the probable cause of the crash.

. . . the sedan . . . collided with a semitruck that was crossing a divided highway. The impact ripped the roof off the Tesla sedan, which continued to travel several hundred feet . . . . (having passed under the semi truck). Early on, Tesla's semi-autonomous Autopilot driver assist system was viewed as a possible contributing factor in the crash, prompting industry observers to speculate that the system may have misinterpreted the appearance of a trailer several hundred feet in front of it while engaged, mistaking it for a highway overhead sign. The first fatal accident involving the Autopilot system had cast suspicion upon the limitations and operation of the system, which uses radar and cameras to interpret the environment around it . . . .

Perhaps the most jarring finding by the NTSB, one suspected early on, was the fact that Autopilot system could not identify the truck crossing the road directly in front of it.

Read more: http://autoweek.com/article/autonomo...#ixzz598jn21uI

Tesla, of course, keeps saying its system is not fully autonomous and while that's true, it does suggest there are potential bugs in both fully and partially autonomous systems and that flawless full autonomy is not easy.

[10023]

The hardware is actually the thing that will be quite clearly superior to human drivers. A self-driving car is looking (and listening) in all directions simultaneously, with no blind spots. Humans can’t do that.

[10023]

The big picture question is - how flawless do we expect these things to be?

Human drivers don’t currently set a very high bar in terms of avoiding accidents or making mistakes. Even if a self-driving car wraps itself around a telephone pole every once in a while, we’ll be better off as a matter of fact.

It’s the legal aspects that need to be settled. Does the owner have liability? The manufacturer? Is it accepted that faults will occur, and no one is “to blame” (unless it’s something like this diesel scandal where there was intentional fraud, or a known problem was ignored)?

And then of course there’s the psychological aspect. People are still more afraid of flying than driving despite the fact that it’s objectively safer. And people will be more afraid of getting into a self-driving car than driving themselves, even though this is unfounded, because people are generally overconfident in their own abilities.

[maru2501]

people's independence is a major concern. I happen to believe one of the incoming changes is expressways, highways and tollways eventually being closed to vehicles driven by humans. That way computers can run driverless passenger vehicles at much higher speeds and in a coordinated fashion with little to no risk of crashes.

but that will mean having to pay for that level of transports in different ways, and maybe not getting to take the interstate to florida

[Pedestrian]

SF to automakers: We want demo of driverless cars before they hit city streets
By Carolyn SaidMarch 7, 2018 Updated: March 7, 2018 7:06pm

San Francisco wants robot-car makers to demonstrate their vehicles to public safety personnel before cars without drivers hit city streets.

“I am specifically requesting that all (autonomous vehicle) manufacturers who intend to apply for a driverless testing or deployment permit participate in a safety assessment exercise in San Francisco,” Mayor Mark Farrell wrote in a letter addressed “Dear Autonomous Vehicle Manufacturers” and sent Thursday.

The point of the voluntary program is for robot-car makers to show their vehicles’ safety features and to make sure that San Francisco first responders, transit operators and other city staff know how to interact with the no-driver cars in case of an emergency.

“This is the future of driving in our country and here in San Francisco,” Farrell said in an interview. “I’m very supportive. As the industry evolves, as mayor, public safety is my first concern.”

Farrell said he had personally called several companies already and received positive reactions to his request. Makers of self-driving cars “want (them) to be known as the safest vehicles on the street,” he said . . . .

https://www.sfchronicle.com/business...s-12736643.php