Quote:
Originally Posted by yuriandrade
The Metropolises of Tomorrow
I created this thread to discuss how the demographic growth will forge new metropolises and expand the borders of the current ones.
I'll start with examples in the US and Brazil:
-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %
BosWash ------------------- 51,164,919 --- 49,788,631 --- 2.76%
Southern California ------ 22,254,387 --- 21,396,214 --- 4.01%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,972,216 --- 11,866,918 --- 0.89%
Greater Bay Area --------- 11,918,876 --- 11,338,725 --- 5.12%
BosWash --- New York, Washington-Baltimore, Boston, Philadelphia, Hartford, Springfield CSAs and Lancaster MSA
SoCal --- Los Angeles CSA and San Diego and Santa Barbara MSAs
Chicagoland --- Chicago and Milwaukee CSAs
G. Bay Area --- San Francisco, Sacramento and Modesto CSAs
-------------------------------- 2014 -------- 2013 ----- Growth %
São Paulo ------------------ 33,596,475 --- 33,304,296 --- 0.88%
Rio de Janeiro ------------- 15,242,909 --- 15,161,638 --- 0.54%
São Paulo --- Metropolitana de São Paulo, Macro Metropolitana Paulista, Vale do Paraíba, Campinas and Piracicaba mesorregions and the microrregion of Itanhaém
Rio de Janeiro --- the entire state minus Norte e Noroeste mesorregions
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As we finally reached 2020 and both countries will held their census, I'm bumping the thread with the latest estimates and when the first figures were be released few months from now, we can confirm where this areas are heading to.
-------------------------------- 2018 -------- 2010 ----- Growth %
Code:
BosWash ------------------- 52,794,872 --- 51,007,529 --- 3.50%
Southern California ------- 22,554,705 --- 21,396,601 --- 5.41%
Greater Bay Area ---------- 12,285,809 --- 11,338,975 --- 8.35%
Chicagoland --------------- 11,916,301 --- 11,867,405 --- 0.41%
Code:
São Paulo ----------------- 35,354,996 --- 31,894,697 -- 10.85%
Rio de Janeiro ------------ 16,192,648 --- 15,084,461 --- 7.35%
There were minor changes on US definitions as they've changed their CSA/MSA boundaries since then. We can see a slow down all across the board as the country as a whole slowed down considerably. Chicagoland here is on negative since the last update and fell below Bay Area. BosWash slowed down a lot on the centre while the northern and southern extremes (Boston and Washington) are the ones growing fast.
In Brazil, we probably see lower numbers than the estimate. Probably the 2018 number will be the number for the 2020 Census. As Brazilian domestic migration nowadays are much much smaller than in the US, we don't see dramatic shifts. It's mostly driven by natural growth, births minus deaths.
Rio-São Paulo is posed to overtake Bos-Wash as the most populated megalopolis on the American continent somewhere in the 2020's, depending on the definition used. Interesting to notice that is much more São Paulo centric than it used to be when the term was used first (hence "Rio" appearing ahead).