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  #8161  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 7:18 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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Originally Posted by JHikka View Post
It's already transported on the East Coast to the LNG terminal in Saint John, so...
That`s not the point. If BC decides that it can make up the rules as it goes along, then so can the feds.

I never thought I would say this but I actually feel bad for Trans-Mountain. They have cleared every environmental review on the books, have genuinely engaged First Nations so that the vast majority are now on side, and they have cleared all jurisdictional lawsuits but for all their work, huge monies spent, and local engagement it was all for squat...........the rules and laws at the end of the day meant nothing when politics are involved. At this point I can see TM taking both Ottawa and Victoria to court and suing for damages both due to costs incurred and damage to it`s reputation. They could rightfully claim that Victoria is not following court proven constitutional powers and Ottawa is not enforcing them all to their detriment. This could end up costing all Canadians a fortune.
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  #8162  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 7:36 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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I think Energy East was a big loss - that would have ticked all the boxes of allowing AB crude to get to market, letting Canadian oil be refined in Canada and wouldn't have had to go through Vancouver. But we are where we are. I've always felt it's pretty stupid that Alberta and Canada doesn't get to decide where our pipelines get built, only private companies.
Nah, it would have locked Alberta in to a lower price forever, since the toll would have had to be very high, since the line would be twice as long and it costs more to move things further. It would actually be more economical to load AB crude on a tanker in BC and take it all the way around to NB. Not that that makes sense either - no reason why we can't sell to the best market can find in the Pacific basin and buy in the Atlantic basin.

It only ever made even a little bit of sense in an environment where all lines into the USA were impossible — it was a Keystone XL replacement.

Governments for sure can decide to build pipelines too, or where they are needed. Line 9 was originally built through Ontario and into Quebec in the 70s due to a government policy demand for eastern Canada to have access to non-Atlantic basin crude in the event of further oil shocks.
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  #8163  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 8:17 PM
milomilo milomilo is online now
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Nah, it would have locked Alberta in to a lower price forever, since the toll would have had to be very high, since the line would be twice as long and it costs more to move things further. It would actually be more economical to load AB crude on a tanker in BC and take it all the way around to NB. Not that that makes sense either - no reason why we can't sell to the best market can find in the Pacific basin and buy in the Atlantic basin.

It only ever made even a little bit of sense in an environment where all lines into the USA were impossible — it was a Keystone XL replacement.
Fair enough.

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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Governments for sure can decide to build pipelines too, or where they are needed. Line 9 was originally built through Ontario and into Quebec in the 70s due to a government policy demand for eastern Canada to have access to non-Atlantic basin crude in the event of further oil shocks.
Maybe then, but now? The left would hate it because it's the government investing in fossil fuels, and the right would hate it because it's the government investing in anything.

I do actually think it should be the government building pipelines though, in the same way they should own roads, railways and other critical pieces of infrastructure. It should be up to Canada and Alberta what the best value pipeline is to us, not Kinder Morgan or Enbridge to their shareholders.
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  #8164  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 8:45 PM
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Originally Posted by milomilo View Post
I think Energy East was a big loss -
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Originally Posted by MalcolmTucker View Post
Nah, it would have locked Alberta in to a lower price forever, since the toll would have had to be very high... Not that that makes sense either - no reason why we can't sell to the best market can find in the Pacific basin and buy in the Atlantic basin.

It only ever made even a little bit of sense in an environment where all lines into the USA were impossible — it was a Keystone XL replacement.
I was a big supporter of Northern Gateway for the same reasons you guys are discussing, access to a different (new) market.

In that same vein, would a pipeline to Churchill make any sense? I know that port has a short shipping season, but it can handle Panamax size vessels and it's not really that far from Hardisty.
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  #8165  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 8:49 PM
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The Feds can promise KM the world and they'll still pull the plug on trans mountain. But use BC as a scapegoat even though nothing has been passed by parlement stopping them from building the pipeline. Hilarious.
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  #8166  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 9:32 PM
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Originally Posted by libtard View Post
The Feds can promise KM the world and they'll still pull the plug on trans mountain. But use BC as a scapegoat even though nothing has been passed by parlement stopping them from building the pipeline. Hilarious.
Why would KM care to say that?
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  #8167  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 9:39 PM
MalcolmTucker MalcolmTucker is online now
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Originally Posted by DoubleK View Post
I was a big supporter of Northern Gateway for the same reasons you guys are discussing, access to a different (new) market.

In that same vein, would a pipeline to Churchill make any sense? I know that port has a short shipping season, but it can handle Panamax size vessels and it's not really that far from Hardisty.
It is possible yeah. You run into the problem again of one group wanting pipelines far away from everything and everyone, and another group wanting no 'pristine' land industrialized. It is putting more oil into the atlantic basin though, and to get far, you'd want to transship from the ice hardened tankers to normal ones somewhere. Not as good as pacific, but better than nothing. A consultant writing in the national post puts it at 5300 km from churchill to saint john, 7500 km to europe. Presuming any refinery in the EU wants to displace their mid-heavy crude supplies. http://business.financialpost.com/op...via-hudson-bay

At this point the problem is thus though: all alternatives not approved today would be 7 years out, 10 years out at a minimum. When it is somewhat probable that by 2050 we will be decommissioning infrastructure, every year of wait not only hurts the oil market, it makes the pipelines toll higher as the period you need to pay it off shrinks.

A ten year delay would also cost the Alberta government directly somewhere near $100 billion in revenue that no one would ever entertain replacing.
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  #8168  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 9:47 PM
ssiguy ssiguy is offline
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BC is the scapegoat and justifiably so. TM has cleared every environmental rule and jurisdictional law on the books and yet still are stopping it`s construction. Whether you agree with TM or not, BC doesn`t have a legal foot to stand on. If you feel that BC is taking the moral high road then fine but then the laws should be changed to reflect that but not this current BC action to openly flaunt the law. Contrary to popular belief laws are `not meant to be broken` and only used when politically advantageous. Laws without enforcement and their proper application become nothing more than suggestions and you don`t run a country or a civil society on suggestions.

Now however it`s far too late. BC has now made this a BC vs big, bad Ottawa battle with Horgan even today stating that "TORONTO Minister of Finance" Bill Morneau doesn't understand or care about BC's interests. Does this mean that federal cabinet Ministers from BC making policy and being ignored by the rest of the country would be fair game for Horgan?...........I think not.

This backed up by a now galvanized anti-pipeline movement who will block construction at every site along the route thru BC means that TM will now consider the pipeline more bother than it's worth even with a federal backing. This pipeline has become the decade's environmental 'line in the sand' and so at this point even if BC back's down or Ottawa steps up the pressure or underwrites the project, it won't make any difference............TM is officially dead.
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  #8169  
Old Posted May 16, 2018, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
BC is the scapegoat and justifiably so. TM has cleared every environmental rule and jurisdictional law on the books and yet still are stopping it`s construction. Whether you agree with TM or not, BC doesn`t have a legal foot to stand on. If you feel that BC is taking the moral high road then fine but then the laws should be changed to reflect that but not this current BC action to openly flaunt the law. Contrary to popular belief laws are `not meant to be broken` and only used when politically advantageous. Laws without enforcement and their proper application become nothing more than suggestions and you don`t run a country or a civil society on suggestions.

Now however it`s far too late. BC has now made this a BC vs big, bad Ottawa battle with Horgan even today stating that "TORONTO Minister of Finance" Bill Morneau doesn't understand or care about BC's interests. Does this mean that federal cabinet Ministers from BC making policy and being ignored by the rest of the country would be fair game for Horgan?...........I think not.

This backed up by a now galvanized anti-pipeline movement who will block construction at every site along the route thru BC means that TM will now consider the pipeline more bother than it's worth even with a federal backing. This pipeline has become the decade's environmental 'line in the sand' and so at this point even if BC back's down or Ottawa steps up the pressure or underwrites the project, it won't make any difference............TM is officially dead.
"Scapegoat" is not the word most people would use. Horgan's been violating the constitution throughout this process and others like Elizabeth May have been flagrantly violating the law in their attempts to stop this project.

You're right that this project has become a "line in the sand" but not about this project being dead. Even if Justin isn't a huge fan of this project there's no way in hell that the federal government is going to allow B.C. to usurp their powers. The courts have shown over and over during this process that they are tired of the stunts that the opponents are pulling. The feds have had it with them as well. People can protest all they want but they'll just get arrested. It won't take long before 99.9% of them realize that they're being used and it's not worth the hassle and costs for them to go through the court system.
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  #8170  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 7:03 AM
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I disagree. The anti-pipeline activists are going to be at every single construction site, every single day. There are hundreds if not thousands who will be at every single stop and it is going to cost TM a small fortune to the point of where they will decide to cut their loses.......temporarily. They will then turn around and sue both Ottawa and Victoria for damages both financial and to their reputation and they would win.

After these endless delays, protests, and bad publicity TM is just going to throw up it/s arms and say screw it, nothing is worth this much of a headache. BC has emboldened the enviornmental movement around this singular cause and they are now well organized, well funded, and energized by this 'line in the sand'. The enviornmentalists and their supporters will not give an inch on this. Period.

What Victoria, Edmonton, Ottawa, or TM itself do at this point is no longer relevant......it's NOT going to happen.
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  #8171  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 1:18 PM
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Didn’t Jim Carr say a while back that the feds would bring in the army if they had to?
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  #8172  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 1:39 PM
milomilo milomilo is online now
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And what a terrible idea that would be! If you want to embolden environmental protesters and give the project a bad name, sending in the army to shoot them is the absolute best way of doing it.
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  #8173  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 7:16 PM
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Discussing this topic with Albertans is exhausting. No matter how many times they're proved wrong they keep bringing up some ridiculous statistic or obscure event to try and win the argument. No wonder it's become an echo chamber in here for pipeline supporters
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  #8174  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 7:58 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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Albertans have been proved wrong? Proved wrong about what?

Facts and stats and economic benefits is what keeps getting brought up from the pro-pipeliners, whereas the opposite side, the minority side I must say, just keeps fear mongering.

And nevermind just Albertans, it’s 100 BC Business, community, and indigenous leaders you are up against.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politi...1-bdb8af44ee4a
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  #8175  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 8:52 PM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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What 'decarbonization'? The world will soon be burning 100 million barrels of oil per day

Within a year, world oil consumption will top 100 million barrels of oil per day.

Over the same time period, close to 100 million new piston-firing vehicles will be bought by petroleum-thirsty customers.

http://business.financialpost.com/co...of-oil-per-day
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  #8176  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 10:47 PM
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I firmly believe that this is all posturing by the BC and AB NDP and Trudeau. A deal has been reached behind the scenes between them. BC will get something big from the feds, AB will get our pipeline, and Trudeau will claim he is a great negotiator and he saved the country.

However, this deal is an attempt for each group to stay in power and they recognize that they must time the announcement to help one another, specifically the AB NDP where the closer a deal gets announced before the election the better. Both the BC NDP and Trudeau want the AB NDP to stay in power. They don't give a shit about the economic fallout that it has caused they only care about a win-win-win for their own political careers.
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  #8177  
Old Posted May 17, 2018, 11:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Hackslack View Post
What 'decarbonization'? The world will soon be burning 100 million barrels of oil per day

Within a year, world oil consumption will top 100 million barrels of oil per day.

Over the same time period, close to 100 million new piston-firing vehicles will be bought by petroleum-thirsty customers.

http://business.financialpost.com/co...of-oil-per-day
As the article itself states, renewables have started an exponential growth cycle, although (as it also states), they've not yet hit the point of reducing fossil fuel use.

With we're at now, I give the fossil fuel industry another 10 years before demand growth starts to plateau and 30 years before it starts to plummet. Which gives all the urgency to getting a pipeline in now.. squeeze as much money out of our resources before the market for them goes away. Expensive oil like ours will probably one of the first things to get drowned out when this happens.
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  #8178  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 12:31 AM
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Didn’t Jim Carr say a while back that the feds would bring in the army if they had to?
He never said that, and has avoided any implication that this is what his government would do. I saw an interview where Jim Carr was specifically asked that question and he waffled on making any sort of meaningful reply, which suggests that the government would not be prepared to bring in the army or anything like that here in Canada (similar to what happened in a similar pipeline stand-off in North Dakota).

Curiously, it was shortly after this interview that Kinder Morgan halted all construction and gave the federal government a deadline of the 31st of May to say whether it would clearly support Kinder Morgan in the construction of the pipeline.

To underscore just how clueless Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau appear to be, it's seems that his government thinks this is simply about money, judging from the offer to spend countless millions of taxpayer dollars to backstop construction delays. Justin and Bill seem to overlook the fact that Kinder Morgan clearly has the money to build this... what is lacking is the federal government's commitment to stand by Kinder Morgan in enforcing the rule of law insofar as allowing Kinder Morgan to finish construction a timely fashion without eco-terrorists threatening KM workers with violence and other acts of sabotage.

This is really not looking very good for Justin in the least. Furthermore, it sends a terrible message to global investors by demonstrating that a legally approved mega-project can become quickly unplugged by a small but vocal minority. This isn't the first time that a project in Canada has come undone... it happens all too often that projects are faced with countless delays and regulatory hurdles in Canada, which is why investment is leaving this country, and is one of the primary reasons that our stock index is one of the worst performing indices in the world.

Clearly no one wants to invest here any longer, especially when the same dollars invested in the US, Mexico or even parts of South America can yield a decent return without anywhere near the same level of obstructionism that one finds in Canada.

Last edited by CoffeeBreak; May 18, 2018 at 1:01 AM.
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  #8179  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 12:47 AM
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Discussing this topic with Albertans is exhausting. No matter how many times they're proved wrong they keep bringing up some ridiculous statistic or obscure event to try and win the argument. No wonder it's become an echo chamber in here for pipeline supporters
Speaking of echo chambers, apparently libtard seems to have overlooked the Angus Reid survey which found that most Canadians support the pipeline in every province across the country (with the exception of Quebec). Even in British Columbia a slight majority realize that this initiative brings economic benefits to the country that translate into jobs, investment and windfalls to our governments which can be plowed back into healthcare, education and infrastructure spending.

As I said before, obstructionism from folks like libtard doesn't prevent any kind of global warming or climate change, as the world will still be using oil, at least for the time being... all this obstructionism does is rob Canadians of seeing any benefit from resource wealth, and it permits Trump's America to benefit from selling its own oil to world markets at the global price, while it continues to purchase oil at a discount from Canada. Again, how stupid is that !!

Who would've thought that the anti-pipeline crowd from BC were such huge supporters of Trump!
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  #8180  
Old Posted May 18, 2018, 2:02 AM
Hackslack Hackslack is offline
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Speaking of echo chambers, apparently libtard seems to have overlooked the Angus Reid survey which found that most Canadians support the pipeline in every province across the country (with the exception of Quebec). Even in British Columbia a slight majority realize that this initiative brings economic benefits to the country that translate into jobs, investment and windfalls to our governments which can be plowed back into healthcare, education and infrastructure spending.

As I said before, obstructionism from folks like libtard doesn't prevent any kind of global warming or climate change, as the world will still be using oil, at least for the time being... all this obstructionism does is rob Canadians of seeing any benefit from resource wealth, and it permits Trump's America to benefit from selling its own oil to world markets at the global price, while it continues to purchase oil at a discount from Canada. Again, how stupid is that !!

Who would've thought that the anti-pipeline crowd from BC were such huge supporters of Trump!
Bingo... perfectly said.
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