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  #41  
Old Posted Dec 20, 2017, 11:39 PM
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Originally Posted by bobdreamz View Post
It was already trending that way but this migration from PR might just be the impetus to push it over.
Wouldn't that just be some nice irony? The Trump admin all but ignores an integral part of the US after a major natural disaster, and as a result, the most important swing state in the nation turns Blue for good.
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  #42  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Sun Belt View Post
In the South there's an interesting trend to take note of.

MS, LA are declining. AL has low growth. And then you have GA, NC, SC, FL, TN and TX with high numerical gains.
I was just glad to see that we (Alabama) maintained positive domestic and international migration growth. International migration was actually higher than domestic.
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  #43  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:29 AM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Oh fuck yes, please make Florida permanently blue.
I wish SSP had "like" buttons...
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  #44  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Shawn View Post
Wouldn't that just be some nice irony? The Trump admin all but ignores an integral part of the US after a major natural disaster, and as a result, the most important swing state in the nation turns Blue for good.
I don't think you can have such a relentless wave of retired folks every year and stay blue for good.
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  #45  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:41 AM
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I don't think you can have such a relentless wave of retired folks every year and stay blue for good.
retired folks die off. Looking at the natural increase in Florida was crazy as births basically equaled deaths.
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  #46  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:52 AM
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Originally Posted by muertecaza View Post
Here's a breakdown of projected house seat gains and losses based on the 2016 estimates. I haven't seen one yet that incorporates 2017 estimates. Based on my admittedly weak understanding of the formula and process, I don't see any big trend changes that would alter the projections. Florida is already projected to pick up 2 seats, and I don't think their growth changed enough to be in the running for a third.
I found at 2017 one.

https://www.electiondataservices.com...r17wTables.pdf
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  #47  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by bobdreamz View Post
It was already trending that way but this migration from PR might just be the impetus to push it over.
Puerto Ricans are basically as solid Dem as African Americans. They vote like 95% Dem. So Trump is probably digging his own grave.

And the tax "reform" is probably even more catastrophic for the Republicans. They've lost affluent, educated suburbia, permanently. There are still tons of moderate Republican voters in suburban America, and their Republican reps are now in deep trouble.

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.
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  #48  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 1:17 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
=

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems.
They just need to make sure that they vote. All fine and dandy that Florida is heading towards blue status, but if they don't go out in mass and vote, doesn't mean anything.

When people vote in mass, Dems win. When people that should be voting stay home, the GOP wins.

But anyways, in NJ, the good part is that much of this growth is in the urban areas and urban-like suburbs. The Hispanic population is expected to grow 1/3 in the next 20 years. NJ is still a good area for immigrants. Lots of potential.
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  #49  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 1:22 AM
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Originally Posted by The North One View Post
Oh fuck yes, please make Florida permanently blue.
That would be interesting. It would change politics not only nationally but also locally, bringing about more pro-urban policies to sustain growth. Hopefully Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee follow as the Southeast continues to look like the rest of the East Coast.
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  #50  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 1:41 AM
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I don't like the idea of Alabama losing a House seat, but if (and it likely will) occurs, it could lead to a major shakeup as far as the state's political representations goes. Republicans will, of course, try and carve up the state to maintain the status quo, but it will be hard for them to maintain the mandatory minority district without welcoming more diverse populations into what are currently heavy red districts.
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  #51  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 3:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
Puerto Ricans are basically as solid Dem as African Americans. They vote like 95% Dem. So Trump is probably digging his own grave.

And the tax "reform" is probably even more catastrophic for the Republicans. They've lost affluent, educated suburbia, permanently. There are still tons of moderate Republican voters in suburban America, and their Republican reps are now in deep trouble.

So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.
Yeah, that's the issue. If they keep fighting culture wars, they're going to alienate some of the socially conservative Catholics of PR.
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  #52  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 4:05 AM
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Originally Posted by ChiSoxRox View Post
That's from the huge (for our population) domestic outflow. The oil downturn has throttled the state's economy, and not many people are willing to put up with the cold and darkness of winter if they aren't making oil work salaries.

I wonder if Louisiana's downturn is oil as well.
The top 5 oil-producing states and population gain/loss:
1. Texas 399,734
2. North Dakota -155
3. California 240,177
4. Alaska -1,727
5. Oklahoma 9,657

The top 5 natural gas-producing states and population gain/loss:
1. Texas 399,734
2. Pennsylvania 18,452
3. Oklahoma 9,657
4. Louisiana -1,824
5. Wyoming -5,595
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  #53  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 5:23 AM
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Oh how the tables have turned for Wyoming...
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  #54  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 5:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Crawford View Post
So demographics, long-term, are extremely favorable for Dems. They just better not screw it up, like they always do.
Thing is, since we're talking long-term, there's no telling what the two parties' positions will be by then.

"Long-term demographics are extremely unfavorable to any party that would be openly anti-minority and/or anti-nonwhite to the point of managing to make it a single issue for many voters" is the version of your statement we can probably all agree on.
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  #55  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 5:31 AM
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Originally Posted by cannedairspray View Post
Yeah, that's the issue. If they keep fighting culture wars, they're going to alienate some of the socially conservative Catholics of PR.
Many immigrants are socially conservative, fiscally conservative, and (when personally successful) would prefer a small government. Many of them are a natural fit as GOP-of-one-generation-into-the-future voters, I'd guess. (I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but I have observed that parties nearly always adapt; and if they don't, they're replaced, which can happen surprisingly quickly in terms of election cycles.)
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  #56  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 5:43 AM
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Originally Posted by chris08876 View Post
They just need to make sure that they vote. All fine and dandy that Florida is heading towards blue status, but if they don't go out in mass and vote, doesn't mean anything.

When people vote in mass, Dems win. When people that should be voting stay home, the GOP wins.

But anyways, in NJ, the good part is that much of this growth is in the urban areas and urban-like suburbs. The Hispanic population is expected to grow 1/3 in the next 20 years. NJ is still a good area for immigrants. Lots of potential.
Same problem in Texas. We should be blue. But voter turnout among minorities and young people is usually low. When you visit cities here and go to restaurants, stores, parks, and ethnic festivals, it's easy to wonder how the hell could this state still be red? But if they don't vote...

I guess gerrymandering is a factor, too.
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  #57  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 6:06 AM
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Gerrymandering is a MASSIVE factor in Texas. It ought to be illegal. It's certainly undemocratic.
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  #58  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 8:59 AM
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It's still a very modest growth, but Michigan finally turned the corner on out-migration with this period. It's been the one thing stiffling growth the previous five years the state grew. You take that factor away, and you have more "normal" growth for the state coming leading up to the 2020 Census, finally. We've kind of been expecting this having seen Detroit's population loss slow down significantly in recent years. I'll be very interested to see what the sub-county numbers look like in the coming months, but it's very likely to show loss in Wayne County slow to a trickle.

Quote:
Say hello to more Michiganders! Population rises for sixth straight year

By Kristi Tanner | Detroit Free Press

December 20, 2017

Michigan's population is up again, for the sixth consecutive year, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released Wednesday. About 9,962,311 residents lived in the state on July 1, 2017, an increase of 28,866 people or 0.3% from a year earlier.

The state's growth rate remains slower than the national rate of 0.7%.

The population gain includes births and people migrating to the state. Michigan recorded a positive net migration – more people moving to the state than leaving -- for the first time in records dating to at least 2000, according to the Census Bureau. Statistics were not available prior to then.
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  #59  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 2:44 PM
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Congrats to Michigan and all the states that surround Illinois

Chicagoans care more about the SE corners of Wisconsin and the NW portions of Indiana than the rest of Illinois anyhow. But it’s good to see some growth over yonder
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  #60  
Old Posted Dec 21, 2017, 2:46 PM
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The county numbers will be very fascinating for NY/NJ. Growth slowed in both states but NYC and NJ's northern areas (primarily Hudson County and Newark) were strongly growing at last report.

There could be major troubles for upstate NY and central and south NJ.
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