Quote:
Originally Posted by ccw219
Dead on correct.
In my mind, the main question that determines this election will be where the centrist vote moves from that imploded Liberal brand (Swan and Blakeman aside). My gut says NDP in Edmonton/Lethbridge and PC in Calgary. However, a late Layton-esque surge from the Notley brand in Calgary wouldn't shock me in the least...
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Have the NDP ever won a federal or provincial seat in Calgary?
That is where I think it will be won or lost. Assuming most rural seats go Wildrose (with a few maybe PC) and the NDP does really well in Edmonton (federal coattail potential? take note Mulcair!), then Calgary is a huge question mark.
* If the PC's collapse completely, and Wildrose is likely en route to government with the NDP in second or the NDP is threatening to form government, I think mostly Wildrose just to block the NDP. A few seats may stay PC and the NDP might get a couple.
* If the PC's are competitive overall, they might create a 3-region split and the PC's might survive there - can anyone say minority government with 3 strong parties?
* I'm not sure where in Calgary the NDP have the best chance, since they seem to have no history at all there.
* As for the Liberals, I can't see them as much of a factor at all. Their biggest names have jumped to Team Trudeau, and they likely won't have even a full slate of candidates. I think they will be lucky to get more than 2 or 3 seats.