Is another decline in the U.S. housing market imminent? - Page 3

The North One · #41 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 5:26 AM**

It's obviously places like Denver are extremely overvalued. Definity a great time to sell and run.

Buckeye Native 001 · #42 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 3:10 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno

The reason the great depression wasnt nearly as bad in Phoenix is because "phoenix" was a collection of farm towns separated by miles of cotton and citrus.

BUt I was at ASU and people were talking major recession early in 2008

I lived in Phoenix from 2007-09 and listened to a lot of KTAR and KJZZ during my commute and both stations were regularly doing news segments on an impending collapse in late 2007 and early 2008.

There's a lot I dislike about Jon Talton, but even he was trying to warn people in his Republic columns in the mid 2000s, IIRC. It might've been one of the reasons why he was fired?

jd3189 · #43 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 3:57 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One

It's obviously places like Denver are extremely overvalued. Definity a great time to sell and run.

Sorry if this gets some Denver residents riled up, but aside from the outdoor activities of the Rockies and maybe a growing tech center, what's so great about Denver that is rising home prices there?

Tom In Chicago · #44 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 4:18 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd3189

Sorry if this gets some Denver residents riled up, but aside from the outdoor activities of the Rockies and maybe a growing tech center, what's so great about Denver that is rising home prices there?

You could ask the same question about Austin, TX no?

. . .

Tom In Chicago · #45 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 4:22 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buckeye Native 001

People in Phoenix new damn good and well what was about to happen, many just chose to ignore it.

I remember sitting at a blackjack table in Las Vegas back in 2005 and this smug couple sitting next to me couldn't stop talking about how their home in Phoenix had appreciated in value like by 100% (or some such nonsense). . . I thought to myself how sad a day it would be when THAT market comes crashing down. . . because it's fucking PHOENIX, AZ for chrise-sake!!!

. . .

JManc · #46 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 5:35 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd3189

Sorry if this gets some Denver residents riled up, but aside from the outdoor activities of the Rockies and maybe a growing tech center, what's so great about Denver that is rising home prices there?

Supply and demand? People want to live there.

Obadno · #47 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 5:37 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

. . because it's fucking PHOENIX, AZ for chrise-sake!!!

. . .

Yeah stay away from our sand dunes and mud houses, tell the rest of Illinois to stop coming too, tel Californians and Texans to stop too while you are at it.

It’s horrible, the worst place in the world.

Stop moving here

Sun Belt · #48 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 6:24 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom In Chicago

I remember sitting at a blackjack table in Las Vegas back in 2005 and this smug couple sitting next to me couldn't stop talking about how their home in Phoenix had appreciated in value like by 100% (or some such nonsense). . . I thought to myself how sad a day it would be when THAT market comes crashing down. . . because it's fucking PHOENIX, AZ for chrise-sake!!!

. . .

And since the crash:

Phoenix -- home values bottomed out at 102K in 2012 and are currently sitting around 226K at the moment after appreciating by 9.8% last year and forecast to increase another 3.6%.

Centropolis · #49 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:14 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Supply and demand? People want to live there.

exactly...not so sure places like denver are really overvalued. tons of urban construction, job growth, transit mega-projects...it's really being fueled by educated millennials pouring into the city and people cashing out of coastal markets and not just a pre-great recession housing bubble...it's not phoenix circa 2006. the desirable places just really are becoming much more expensive than the less desirable and undesirable areas.

Obadno · #50 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:21 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centropolis

exactly...not so sure places like denver are really overvalued. tons of urban construction, job growth, transit mega-projects...it's really being fueled by educated millennials pouring into the city and people cashing out of coastal markets and not just a pre-great recession housing bubble...it's not phoenix circa 2006. the desirable places just really are becoming much more expensive than the less desirable and undesirable areas.

It is really quite surprising to me how many costal dwellers are totally ignorant of other cities in the country.

It’s a very weird mindset

Sun Belt · #51 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:39 PM**

The Brady Bunch house is on the market in Los Angeles for $1.85 million. In 1973 it was purchased for $61,000.

JManc · #52 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:40 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centropolis

exactly...not so sure places like denver are really overvalued. tons of urban construction, job growth, transit mega-projects...it's really being fueled by educated millennials pouring into the city and people cashing out of coastal markets and not just a pre-great recession housing bubble...it's not phoenix circa 2006. the desirable places just really are becoming much more expensive than the less desirable and undesirable areas.

I personally think the entire country is overvalued. At least the major economic centers where houses are getting so expensive that they are slipping out of reach of an average working class family. When I was a kid, my parents could afford a nice 4 bedroom house in a decent are on one income. This was the 80's. Now, you have to have two high paying jobs for that same house. This isn't even taking into account the coasts. For example, Houston. Pedestrian's list says the median home is $170k but you're lucky to find something 2x that...in an area where there aren't 20 pairs of sneakers hanging off the power-lines.

Sun Belt · #53 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

I personally think the entire country is overvalued. At least the major economic centers where houses are getting so expensive that they are slipping out of reach of an average working class family. When I was a kid, my parents could afford a nice 4 bedroom house in a decent are on one income. This was the 80's. Now, you have to have two high paying jobs for that same house. This isn't even taking into account the coasts. For example, Houston. Pedestrian's list says the median home is $170k but you're lucky to find something 2x that...in an area where there aren't 20 pairs of sneakers hanging off the power-lines.

Just a quick search in L.A. city limits:
There are 19 homes for sale and of those, 11 are at auction. The search guidelines were maximum 350K, 3 bedroom, house.

You can't even find a house in the hood for under $350,000

Steely Dan · #54 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:50 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sun Belt

The Brady Bunch house is on the market in Los Angeles for $1.85 million. In 1973 it was purchased for $61,000.

that reminds me of my lucky-ass parents.

they purchased the house that i grew-up in in 1976 for $29K.

they sold it in 2002 for $650K.

holy real estate windfall, batman!

i hope that means the home we purchased last year will be worth ~$10M in 26 years. ka-ching!

Obadno · #55 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:53 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

I personally think the entire country is overvalued. At least the major economic centers where houses are getting so expensive that they are slipping out of reach of an average working class family. When I was a kid, my parents could afford a nice 4 bedroom house in a decent are on one income. This was the 80's. Now, you have to have two high paying jobs for that same house. This isn't even taking into account the coasts. For example, Houston. Pedestrian's list says the median home is $170k but you're lucky to find something 2x that...in an area where there aren't 20 pairs of sneakers hanging off the power-lines.

But...they aren't, houses are now at where they should be on a stable 3-6% annyal growth path if there had been no boom or bust.

some submarkets are overvalued but it isn't a national issue.

The North One · #56 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:58 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by jd3189

Sorry if this gets some Denver residents riled up, but aside from the outdoor activities of the Rockies and maybe a growing tech center, what's so great about Denver that is rising home prices there?

It has a lot to do with the fact that the city is now just starting to develop in a big way since historically Denver has always been a small, young frontier city. Other parts of the country (south and west) are now having their moment and benefiting from trends/patterns/government investment (which inflate values)then there really being anything special about Denver or Austin, etc.

Denver sprawls like crazy though so I'm not sure why it's more expensive than say Houston or Dallas.

The North One · #57 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 7:59 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Supply and demand? People want to live there.

This is naïve, it's not nearly that simple, in fact it's very complex.

jd3189 · #58 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 8:03 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by JManc

Supply and demand? People want to live there.

Yeah, but like you said, these places seem to be overvalued. Not saying Denver is a bad city. It's great, but why is the housing market there getting expensive to the point in which a modest townhouse or apartment Costa a fortune for average folks? Same in SF, LA, and Seattle. Modest homes built for the middle class are now going up to the millions. At that point, I could care less about the benefits of living in the city if my average house is going to suck up much of my income anyway. But I guess that's how supply and demand works

The North One · #59 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 8:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Centropolis

exactly...not so sure places like denver are really overvalued. tons of urban construction, job growth, transit mega-projects...it's really being fueled by educated millennials pouring into the city and people cashing out of coastal markets and not just a pre-great recession housing bubble...it's not phoenix circa 2006. the desirable places just really are becoming much more expensive than the less desirable and undesirable areas.

This makes little sense and is highly composed of just surface logic and cultural fallacies that are projected.

What exactly makes Denver more attractive? Are you going to argue scenery (which has nothing to do with city growth)? Pretty much every city in West Virginia is more scenic than Denver. An edge on urban investment and public transit? Denver's urbanity is very poor actually, they destroyed their entire urban core and replaced it with unattractive 80's oil towers their best urban neighborhoods are some streetcar suburbs which are nice but hardly special, a humble streetcar system doesn't suddenly bring all the millennials to the yard. It's about complex urbanization trends and factors beyond anybody's control.

JManc · #60 Posted **Jul 19, 2018, 8:08 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by Obadno

But...they aren't, houses are now at where they should be on a stable 3-6% annyal growth path if there had been no boom or bust.

some submarkets are overvalued but it isn't a national issue.

Wages have stagnated. My stepfather paid $80,000 for our 4 bedroom house back in the 80's. This was an area where cops drove Volvo's and there was a country club with golf courses. He made about $50k at the time (which was pretty good for the era). His salary was well over half the cost of the house.

Today, that salary equates to about $118k but a comparable house in a comparable neighborhood would be around $300k. Roughly 2.5x his salary.

Quote:

Originally Posted by The North One

This is naïve, it's not nearly that simple, in fact it's very complex.

Yes, there are a lot of moving parts in the housing market but Denver is $$ because people want to live there. The city is booming, it's cosmopolitan, has a vibrant economy and it has the Rockies.