Who will replace Harper?

[Martin Mtl]

Originally Posted by thurmas

Can you find the link to this poll Martin? I am on Lapresse's website and google news searching it with nothing found?

Here's the link.

[eternallyme]

As for rating them on a scale on nationalism/globalism, economic issues and on social issues (essentially two dimensions of a box), here is how I would rate them (and in italics I throw in David Cameron, Theresa May, Donald Trump, Barack Obama, Stephen Harper, Justin Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair and Elizabeth May for comparison):

Economic positions:

___ FAR LEFT
|
Elizabeth May
|
|
|
Thomas Mulcair
Justin Trudeau
Barack Obama
___ CENTRE
Michael Chong
Pierre Lemieux, Steven Blaney, Lisa Raitt, Deepak Obhrai, David Cameron, Theresa May
Erin O'Toole
Kellie Leitch, Andrew Scheer, Stephen Harper
Brad Trost, Chris Alexander, Rick Peterson, Donald Trump
Andrew Saxton
Maxime Bernier
|
___ FAR RIGHT

Social issues (such as abortion, same-sex marriage, marijuana, etc.)

___ FAR LEFT
|
|
Justin Trudeau, Thomas Mulcair
Elizabeth May
|
Michael Chong, Barack Obama
Chris Alexander, Deepak Obhrai, David Cameron
|
___ CENTRE
Maxime Bernier, Rick Peterson, Erin O'Toole, Lisa Raitt, Stephen Harper, Theresa May
Kellie Leitch, Steven Blaney
Andrew Scheer
|
Donald Trump
|
Brad Trost, Pierre Lemieux
|
___ FAR RIGHT

No known position: Andrew Saxton

Immigration/international issues:

___ NATIONALIST
|
|
Donald Trump
Kellie Leitch
Steven Blaney
Theresa May
Brad Trost, Maxime Bernier
|
___ CENTRE
Andrew Scheer
|
Stephen Harper,, Chris Alexander, Erin O'Toole, Lisa Raitt
David Cameron
Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama, Deepak Obhrai, Michael Chong
Thomas Mulcair
Elizabeth May
|
___ GLOBALIST

No known positions: Pierre Lemieux, Andrew Saxton, Rick Peterson

(These are just based on my own observations and arguments could be made in many different ways.)

[ssiguy]

One of the largest divides in Canada is the East/West division of the willingness of the state to be a part of their lives. Eastern {Ont/PQ/Atlantic} are far more accepting and even embrace a heavy government role in daily lives than do Western Canadians including BCers.

If there is one thing the Conservatives should learn from the last election it's that Quebecers & Atlantic Canadians want government to play an important part in the economy and social affairs and Harper's somewhat "anti-government" and definately pro-business stance was rejected by the voters and PQ/Atlantic hold one-third of the seats. A majority or even minority is impossible without them. Ontarians have always wanted proactive government especially in the urban areas so the Tories would also be wipped off the map in the GTA, Ottawa, London, Hamilton, and Windsor. KWC is a bit more conservative.

Trudeau would have wet dreams if Bernier became leader as it would assure him of another majority government.

[eternallyme]

While the vast majority of Canadians back Macron over Le Pen, look at this - these are the people voting in a few weeks:

https://twitter.com/ProbitInc/status/860898244389470209

58% of Conservative supporters are for Le Pen (compared to 24% of Bloc supporters and virtually no Liberal, NDP or Green supporters). There was a high number of DK/NR in the poll though.

[kwoldtimer]

What an odd thing to poll Canadians about.

[lio45]

Originally Posted by kwoldtimer

What an odd thing to poll Canadians about.

Given that we still have British royalty on our bills, it doesn't seem that out-of-place to pay at least some attention to what's happening at our overseas cousins', especially when it's big news like a change of govt. Canada doesn't exist in a vacuum.

[1overcosc]

And Macron has won by a huge margin, even wider than the polls said he would. He has won by 30-32 points, by contrast the polls were expecting him to win by about 20-25 points.

[csbvan]

Originally Posted by 1overcosc

And Macron has won by a huge margin, even wider than the polls said he would. He has won by 30-32 points, by contrast the polls were expecting him to win by about 20-25 points.

Far right populists just keep on underperforming their polls in Europe: Austria, NL, and France in both rounds. It seems like far right populists will barely register in Germany's election as well. I wonder if electorial success in the U.S. (Trump) has poisoned populism in Europe.

[Gresto]

Originally Posted by csbvan

I wonder if electorial success in the U.S. (Trump) has poisoned populism in Europe.

Given that Trump is widely viewed as an imbecile, I'm sure his victory was like a cold shower to those contemplating voting for such a candidate.

[Loco101]

Well at least here the far-right Brad Trost won't even come close to winning the CPC leadership.

I wonder if these foreign elections will affect CPC leadership voters at all? Some may think twice and vote for someone who is actually electable. Maxime Bernier is far-right economically for Canada but not socially. But it's enough to scare away many mainstream voters.

[PoscStudent]

I doubt many Canadians have in-depth knowledge of the French presidential election. Many would probably only know that Le Pen was a "conservative" candidate.

Interestingly enough, I first saw stuff on Macron several months ago because Jason Kenney was tweeting about how wonderful he was.

[eternallyme]

Originally Posted by Loco101

Well at least here the far-right Brad Trost won't even come close to winning the CPC leadership.

I wonder if these foreign elections will affect CPC leadership voters at all? Some may think twice and vote for someone who is actually electable. Maxime Bernier is far-right economically for Canada but not socially. But it's enough to scare away many mainstream voters.

Brad Trost is socially very conservative (would be comparable to someone like Mike Huckabee), but he isn't even the most "far-right" in terms of how the debate is framed these days (i.e. nationalist). I rank him tied for 3rd there.

[kwoldtimer]

CBC has an interesting piece on the potential cost/revenue implications of Maxime Bernier's leadership platform.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cons...dget-1.4099208

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by lio45

Given that we still have British royalty on our bills, it doesn't seem that out-of-place to pay at least some attention to what's happening at our overseas cousins', especially when it's big news like a change of govt. Canada doesn't exist in a vacuum.

I agree with you but I doubt most Canadians had more than a passing interest in the election in France. I'd be very surprised if a majority had even heard of Macron (maybe a bit more would have known Le Pen).

Of course in Quebec things would have been fairly different.

[ssiguy]

^ I disagree.

I think there was a lot of interest in the French election in English Canada, far more so than in last years British one. The election wasn't just another ho-hum election but rather seeing how the French viewed Le Pen and her right wing as the right has been gaining a lot of momentum in Europe recently primarily due to Muslim immigration.

[Acajack]

Originally Posted by ssiguy

^ I disagree.

I think there was a lot of interest in the French election in English Canada, far more so than in last years British one. The election wasn't just another ho-hum election but rather seeing how the French viewed Le Pen and her right wing as the right has been gaining a lot of momentum in Europe recently primarily due to Muslim immigration.

Could be...

[Loco101]

Originally Posted by Acajack

I agree with you but I doubt most Canadians had more than a passing interest in the election in France. I'd be very surprised if a majority had even heard of Macron (maybe a bit more would have known Le Pen).

Of course in Quebec things would have been fairly different.

A number of people I know were very relieved that Marine Le Pen didn't win or even come close. Many thought of her as the French version of Donald Trump.

[eternallyme]

So what to expect?

* First 5 ballots: These should have little impact. It should be O'Leary (he's still on the ballot), Saxton, Peterson, Obhrai and Alexander gone in that order. As the "fringe" candidates or the non-candidate, they would likely not benefit anyone to any significant degree.

* 6th ballot: If polls and donors were to be looked into, I would think Trost drops off here - and that greatly benefits Lemieux, as the two social conservatives. I'd think much of the Trost support goes to Lemieux next (with Scheer getting most of the rest)

* 7th ballot: I'd suspect Blaney drops off here due to relatively limited overall support. The support should go to Bernier (the other Quebec candidate) and Leitch (the other nationalist) the most.

* 8th ballot: It's close here, but the gained Lemieux and Leitch support means one of the Red Tories most likely will go off here. I'm going to say Chong due to his lack of grassroots support. Most likely, the benefit is either Raitt or O'Toole.

* 9th ballot: Assuming Raitt gets the boost she needs from Chong supporters, she might survive. But if Lemieux gets too much from Trost, and if O'Toole gets a good number of the Raitt votes, she falls off still. For this case, I will assume Raitt drops off here. I'd suspect the benefactor is O'Toole.

* 10th ballot: Lemieux doesn't get any gain from the Red Tories falling off, so he can only go this far. If he drops off earlier, I'd think Raitt falls now. As for Lemieux, his support may just dissipate, but if still holding up I'd think Scheer and Bernier benefit the most.

* 11th ballot: We're down to four - O'Toole, Leitch, Scheer and Bernier. At this point, it really depends on how the middle candidates broke. With limited growth, I think Leitch drops off now. That support should just scatter among all three with no real benefit to anyone.

* 12th ballot: Down to three. Bernier may win here, and that could be important. O'Toole probably has gained the least support of the three and I suspect he gets eliminated here. Why is it not good for Bernier to take it to the limit? I think Scheer takes most of his votes.

* 13th ballot: The final showdown. Simply put, Bernier probably needs to have a 10 point lead AND be at least 45% on the 12th ballot to win here. Scheer could sneak in if most of the O'Toole vote goes his way.

That's just how I see it coming down.

[PoscStudent]

I'm still not entirely sure how it'll play out. It seems unlikely that Bernier will lose. I think O'Toole has the best chance of defeating him though and not Scheer. O'Toole has better growth potential than Scheer, even though Scheer may start off in second place.

My guess at this point is;

Bernier, Scheer and O'Toole seem likely to be the top three.

Leitch is still probably in fourth place, due to the number of members her campaign says she signed up and based on her donations. However, unlike many of the campaigns, she's lost momentum over the last number of months. It's quite possible that people who signed up to support her 6, 7, 8, months ago when she was making headlines may end up not voting at all due to the lack of attention she has been receiving as of late.

Unlike eternallyme, I think Chong will finish in the top five and may possibly move ahead of Leitch if he can gain enough second ballot support from Raitt and the others.

Despite Trost's headlines, social conservatives have rallied behind Lemeiux and he seems to have a considerable amount of support that wasn't apparent a couple of months ago. He's likely to be the surprise in this race and could quite likely finish ahead of Raitt.

Raitt's campaign hasn't really gone anywhere. Of all the candidates, she has had the most prominent profile over the last number of years yet it looks like she could end up having an embarrassing showing. I was expecting her to drop out of the race several weeks and throw her support behind another candidate like O'Leary did.

The rest of them have such little support that it's hard to know where they'll finish.

Blaney's Quebec support will probably lead to him having a bit more support and Trost will likely finish with a similar level of support.

Also, I don't think O'Leary will last.

The rest will have a few percentage points in total.

[HillStreetBlues]

I think that O'Toole will be a close second, Scheer will be a distant third, and Chong will be a relatively close fourth. That last bit might be wishful thinking, but I think Leitch will be knocked out before Chong. Leitch is polarizing and unlikely to be very many members' second choice (besides supporters of Trost- not a lot- and Bernier- worthless since she'll be knocked out before him).

Chong, on the other hand, will get support from (in order of importance) Raitt, Alexander, Peterson, Blaney.

PoscStudent, I'm curious what makes you say "social conservatives have rallied behind Lemeiux." I would have assumed Trost would be that faction's first choice.