Major League Baseball 2017

[WhipperSnapper]

Orioles and Yankees at the top of the league is in Toronto's favour.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Yea, it's ridiculous to count them out this early. They're only 22% into the season - still a long way to go.

To say that it's ridiculous is a little strong. Fact is, literally every team in the AL is ahead of them in the standings. And while it's a small sample size, no team has recovered from the kind of start the Jays had to make the playoffs. Those are facts that can't be denied.

So, yes, they're only 4 GB of the Wild Card but they will need to play very well and very consistently the rest of the way and get a decent amount of luck, too - there's no room for error at this point. If they do it, they'll be the first. Even if they don't, they will likely make it interesting before the year is done.

[WhipperSnapper]

Where are you getting your facts? There have been a number of teams that have gone last to first or first to last after 40 games. I believe the 2015 Jays count in that group too.

[Berklon]

Originally Posted by Dr Awesomesauce

To say that it's ridiculous is a little strong. Fact is, literally every team in the AL is ahead of them in the standings. And while it's a small sample size, no team has recovered from the kind of start the Jays had to make the playoffs. Those are facts that can't be denied.

Not sure where you're getting your facts. The Jays are only 7 GB right now and there have been plenty of teams who've made up that deficit in the second half of the season - and some who've done it in the last quarter of the season. The Jays haven't even finished the first quarter of their season.

So, yes, they're only 4 GB of the Wild Card but they will need to play very well and very consistently the rest of the way and get a decent amount of luck, too - there's no room for error at this point. If they do it, they'll be the first.

There's plenty of room for error.

I can't believe you think the odds of a teams season is over with only 7GB and less than a quarter of the season played. If that were the case, then there are 11 teams currently who have little chance of making the playoffs with about 120 games left. That's 120 games of empty stadiums because there's little hope.

No, just no.

[Mongo62]

According to the 538 website's 2017 MLB predictions page, which appears to be methodologically sound (they use a modification of the Elo system used to rate chess players), the Blue Jays as of today have a 20% chance of making the playoffs, an 8% chance of winning the division, and a 2% chance of winning the World Series.

That sounds about right to me.

[TorontoDrew]

Lol at looking at predictions for the world series one month into the regular season. Too funny if you think 7 wins between the top team and the Jays won't change over the next 4 months of baseball. Not to mention we still are out 2 of our best players.

[Mongo62]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Lol at looking at predictions for the world series one month into the regular season. Too funny if you think 7 wins between the top team and the Jays won't change over the next 4 months of baseball. Not to mention we still are out 2 of our best players.

Um, what? Do you understand the methodology that the website uses? What they are doing are making an estimate of the relative quality of the team as it has been so far, as measured by their runs scored and allowed in every game they have played so far, after taking into account a variety of factors such as the opposing team, the starting pitchers, the stadium where the game was played, and so on. Then they calculate the probability of winning N games over the rest of their schedule, for each possible value of N, and compare the total likelihoods of wins for each team in their division.

Of COURSE the final numbers can vary a lot, given what has been done this early in the season, and they account for that in the spread of possible total wins for each team. But they have verified the probabilities by using part-season totals from earlier seasons to "predict" that season, and found that the probabilities they generate match the actual results for the seasons, taken as a whole.

[TorontoDrew]

Originally Posted by Mongo62

Um, what? Do you understand the methodology that the website uses?

Um, what? You do understand that these numbers are based on the standings and scores to date. Just 5 weeks into the regular season. I would suggest checking them out again when we are deeper into the year not at the start as anything can happen between now and October 3rd. With 162 games to play the stats and predictions will change drastically, hell it even says so in the link you provided. So again using that website now for a true accurate prediction of where teams will be come Oct 3rd is laughable.

"Elo is a simple but elegant system that can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate available data.


Anyhow, you and I can see how close those current predictions are in just a few weeks as that website will change daily. The Jays won a 5th game in a row today and a 3rd series in a row today. Only 6.5 games back from the top spot.

[Mongo62]

Originally Posted by TorontoDrew

Um, what? You do understand that these numbers are based on the standings and scores to date. Just 5 weeks into the regular season. I would suggest checking them out again when we are deeper into the year not at the start as anything can happen between now and October 3rd.

That is the whole point. Yes, there is a wide range of variation in the future win-loss records for each team, but there still has been sufficient baseball played that a likely range of playing abilities can be determined for each team. They then run thousands of simulated seasons, using the full range of likely playing abilities, with more likely team playing abilities getting more simulated seasons. They then look at all the simulated seasons to determine the most likely outcomes, given the simulated results using the expected ranges of playing abilities.

This is not just pulled out of their asses. They tested the algorithms using partial historical seasons, and comparing the 'predictions' against the actual results. Of course the actual results would differ from the predictions by some amount, but on average they were dead on.

Predictions this early in the season have a greater variance from the final results than they will later in the season, but they are still as accurate as can be expected, given the smaller sample size.

[WhipperSnapper]

The numbers are very close to how I feel about the team.

[WhipperSnapper]

well...tied for 12TH out of 15

[isaidso]

Jays sweep Mariners and now only 4 games below 500.

[TorontoDrew]

The Jays killed it last night and Tulo got a grand slam early in the game.

17 -2 win last night.

[TorontoDrew]

Jays fans from Western Canada are flocking again to Seattle this weekend. I was supposed to be there.

https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&sourc...KECmXel5r05e9g

[Dr Awesomesauce]

Originally Posted by Berklon

Not sure where you're getting your facts. The Jays are only 7 GB right now and there have been plenty of teams who've made up that deficit in the second half of the season - and some who've done it in the last quarter of the season. The Jays haven't even finished the first quarter of their season.

There's plenty of room for error.

I can't believe you think the odds of a teams season is over with only 7GB and less than a quarter of the season played. If that were the case, then there are 11 teams currently who have little chance of making the playoffs with about 120 games left. That's 120 games of empty stadiums because there's little hope.

No, just no.

You're making some very strong statements without backing them up with facts. I didn't bother posting anything at the time because the interwebs/ radio/ newspapers were filled with facts about the hole the Jays had dug themselves.

Here's an excerpt from Sportsnet on 28 April:
There’s no denying the significance of those 16 losses, though.

Simply put, teams that lose that often in April barely ever make the playoffs. Of the 186 teams to advance to the post-season in the wild-card era, just three lost 16 or more games in April: the 2001 Athletics (8-17), the 2007 Rockies (10-16) and the 2014 Pirates (10-16).

If the Blue Jays are going to reach the playoffs, they’ll need to go on a historic run and become the fourth team in the wild-card era to rebound from a 16-loss April. Something like a 95-win clip over the remaining 140 games would give them a decent shot at playing October baseball. Anything short of that, and they’re in trouble.

Full article here.

So, I stand by what I said earlier: it's not over but they're going to have to play tremendous baseball the rest of the way.

If we assume that 90 wins is what might be needed to make the playoffs (could be 87 or 88 or whatever but 90 is a nice round number), they will have to go 61-41 (.598) the rest of the way. Far from impossible but still a bit of a stretch.

[TorontoDrew]

Not a problem. This team in a division where no team has really broken away from the pack yet. And now we have almost everybody back I think we could be in 3rd place by early July.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

^Yeah, it's early but I'd say a playoff spot is there for the taking which is why I think the FO will be really aggressive at the Trade Deadline.

The way things have gone so far, it's a safe assumption that the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox will make the playoffs. That leaves 2 spots for the Jays to fight over with Cleveland and Baltimore in the mix too - the Twins are terrible and will eventually fall off their current pace.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

^Add a healthy Mariners team to that list.

[WhipperSnapper]

Wild card era? That's like 24 years. A little cherry picked in my books. Whatever. What matters is it has been done before. The number of times or how infrequent it happens has less relevance. The teams that accomplished the feat probably weren't in the League Championship the previous two seasons either. I'm into stats but, this is taking it too far. This team has a habit of outperforming and being very streaky. They suit this era of baseball well.

[Dr Awesomesauce]

After an excellent May and improved prospects for the season, the Jays have begun to sputter. Their offense isn't very good (Pillar, Tulo and JB are absolute zeros right now), their starting pitching isn't great either (Estrada and Liriano are struggling, Sanchez is injured and Biagini is unpredictable). Even their defense has been poor of late (Tulo has lost a step and even Goins has looked very ordinary).

So here's the question: what does the FO do as the trade deadline comes into focus? Rumour has it that the team is taking calls from teams on Osuna and Donaldson among others. The point has been made before that Osuna will never be better than he is right now. That relievers are unpredictable and that Osuna's injury history make him a ticking time bomb of sorts - i.e. trade him now. And then there's the Donaldson situation - 1 more year of control and then he's gone. Trading him would likely net the team a decent return of young players. It would, however, be a publicity nightmare.

My inclination is that they will stay the course. Spend money. Push for the playoffs. Hoard prospects. Generally, continue the slow-motion rebuild while still attempting to make the playoffs.