Quote:
Originally Posted by DubberDom
StatCan:
http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/nhs-enm/2...1003_1-eng.cfm
Just over 20% use public transit to get to work, most people do not work downtown, and in Ottawa's case, with DND moving 8500 people to Carling Campus, Ottawa's numbers will likely fall. Also note that Ottawa has an "artificial" economy and labour market where we can create huge complexes, the more non-government growth we see, more jobs are moving away from downtown.
I don't work for Government and I would seriously consider not taking a job in Downtown
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But that's my point. 20% of the whole city uses transit to get to work, but that's >50% for downtown commuters. This means that the reason why transit is at 20% isn't because people refuse to take buses, it's because fewer people work downtown. You said that transit ridership couldn't go beyond 25% cause the remaining 3/4 refuse to ever take the bus. But in a hypothetical world in which every single job was downtown, the city would have 50% transit ridership citywide. Meaning that the statement "3/4 refuse to ever take the bus" is incorrect. Rather, it's 3/4 have commutes that they choose to do by car. Big difference. The latter means you can get people onto transit by nudging them (with parking fees/worse congestion/better buses, etc.), the former means you can't.
Also I'm not sure you're right when you say that downtown employment will decline. It's not just government that's downtown. Many white collar private sector jobs across North America are being increasingly driven downtown. North American IT, for example, is in the middle of a significant refocus away from suburban lab campuses and towards downtown office space. This trend is starting to happen here too, with companies like Shopify deliberately choosing to set up shop in the core. Downtown employment will remain steady at worst.