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  #21  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2008, 5:07 PM
Runt Runt is offline
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[QUOTE=DowntownWpg;3808582]Anyone want to make some predictions regarding Manitoba's 14 federal ridings?

Here are my "I'd bet on it" picks:

NDP
Elmwood-Transcona
Winnipeg North
Winnipeg Centre

Liberal
St. Boniface
Winnipeg South Centre

Conservatives
Brandon - Souris
Charleswood - St.James - Assiniboia
Dauphin - Swan River
Kildonan - St. Paul
Portage - Lisgar
Provencher
Selkirk - Interlake


Too close (for me) to call:

Churchill: I think it'll be close between Keeper and Nikki Ashton. That said, Bev Desjardins is not running this time to split the NDP vote, so this could very well give Ashton a huge advantage. Question is, will Keeper being an incumbent make-up the difference?

Winnipeg South: John Loewen may appeal to the old PC Party type of voter. However, Fletcher cleaned his clock in the last election, in Charleswood. As for Bruinooge, I can't stand that guy and I would like nothing more than seeing him experience electoral defeat. I believe he beat out Alcock by about 100 votes in the last election. The timing of this election may give the Libs the edge. It's not winter, so many university students who also live in the riding may vote, who wouldn't otherwise on a cold January day (and that usually won't be a Conservative vote, unless things have changed drastically from my UofM days).


Ridings that people may claim could be close, but I don't:

St. Boniface: People constantly underestimate Simard. I'm also thinking that the old unwritten rule that you need a French surname to win federally is still in effect for this riding. It's only the people who take CJOB seriously that will buy into the Shelley Glover "tough on crime" single issue mentality.

Winnipeg South Centre: no way the densely populated area of Osbourne Village votes for anything that looks or smells Conservative. Also, people underestimate the strength of the organization and network of the Neville campaign. Kennerd is a former Bomber kicker... not sure what his other qualifications may be, or if kicking a football is a qualification for anything other than... kicking a football. He's working hard at retail politics in the area, but I think it's an area where people are more concerned regarding national issues of social importance (and I'm not referring to social importance as being "wholesome family values" - quite the opposite actually).


And, a note about Provencher (Vic Toews):

It'll be interesting to see if this Mennonite-dominated area is willing to turn a blind eye, and become total hypocrites in voting for Vic Toews.

Toews has fathered a child out of wedlock with a much younger woman (apparently in her early '20s). As such, he's now undergoing a very messy divorce.
Source: Click Here (page two of the article)

Vic's a man who so obviously defied one of the most basic of the 'core family values.' He's a man who in elections past portrayed himself as an old-fashioned moralist. Are they willing to turn a blind eye and stick-it to God/Jesus/the Church/the Ten Commandments? We'll see. You can be sure that in another Toews landslide, most of those votes would've been from someone of a Mennonite or otherwise religious fundamental background. They're doing their best in Steinbach to have this issue go away.

Remember last election, when a sign went up in Winker (another heavily Mennonite area), indicating that "A vote for the Liberals is a vote for the Devil" (in reference to same-sex marriage). I'd like to go down to Steinbach this weekend with my own sign: "A vote for Toews is a vote for adultery." Though, I'll try to think up something a bit wittier...

Don't get me wrong... I'm not religious myself. But I do so enjoy watching (and pointing out) the hypocrisy and contradictions of religious groups.



On another note... Ritz the Ag Minister... joking around about listeriosis. Stupid bastard! I do, however, enjoy watching the Cons shoot themselves in the foot... no wonder Harper keeps a tight leash on those guys.

http://canadianpress.google.com/arti...noo3vZcsj8FWAQ[/QUO



Newbie to SSP
I live near Steinbach and this was the first I heard of this....
WOW ... I didn't know Vic had it in him
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  #22  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2008, 5:25 PM
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Conservatives will win in Provencher not because of religous views (although they are the issues you hear the most of) but the economy. The economic engine that runs our area is small to medium size buisnesses. Any thing that puts a strain on that engine ie TAXES is not welcomed here.
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  #23  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2008, 5:42 PM
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Originally Posted by thegreattait View Post
Also I don't have unconditional support for anyone, everyone makes mistakes. So my support of the Conservatives goes only as far as how much I support each of their decision and actions. Depending on the idea or action, I can strongly support them or completely disagree with them, in the end more of their actions and decision at this point in time line up with what I believe in, so they get my vote this time around. However some of their actions and decisions I don't believe in, I don't think there are very many people that support 100% of what any party wants.
Now it's my turn, my apologies for claiming that you give the Cons unquestioning support. I had actually thought about that just after making my replies, and went back and edited it out. But, I guess you were already working on your reply before I had edited it out. I don't know you personally so it was wrong for me to assume this of you. Again, my apologies!

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Originally Posted by thegreattait View Post
As for being productive I think posting comments on relevant topics that concern our city, province, country and the world we live in is productive. These actions helped to build understanding and knowledge that can be applied to other activities that will result in more noticeable outcomes.

It's just like studying; just because it doesn't give you anything at the moment you doing it doesn't mean it won't affect some outcome or activity latter on in your life.
I agree with this... I wrote "If everyone here put their efforts into something productive and beneficial, we wouldn't be posting to internet forums now would we? " as a joke... hence my wink. Sarcasm is sure difficult to convey in the text format, at least, if you don't know the person and how they deliver jokes (in fact, my original Vic post may have had you chuckle a bit, if delivered in person).


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Originally Posted by thegreattait View Post
I'll wait for your response, then I think we should PM this back and forth if you want to from here so that we don't plug up this forum with our philosophical debates
While I believe that in this case, politics and philosophical/theological values are intertwined, I understand it's best we don't flood this thread with it. Have enjoyed this this discussion thus far, and will send you a PM later to discuss further. We're on opposite sides of the fence, I would imagine, but those are often the best conversations. Otherwise, we'd essentially be just patting each other on the back.

Cheers!
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  #24  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2008, 5:49 PM
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Newbie to SSP
From one newbie to another, welcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Runt View Post
I live near Steinbach and this was the first I heard of this....
Spread the word! Feel free to print-off my post regarding Vic and hand it out at the bar... oh wait... I meant the coffee shop.

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Originally Posted by Runt View Post
WOW ... I didn't know Vic had it in him
The pharmaceutical industry has made billions by giving wealthy white men hard-ons.
(not an original joke of mine... forget where I had heard it)
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  #25  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2008, 6:52 PM
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How much longer until The Annexation?
Winnipeg still has a ways to grow before we swallow up Thunder Bay, but we're working on it!
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  #26  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 1:21 PM
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Voters bring up Toews scandal
Rival candidates stick to policy questions


By: Bruce Owen

Updated: October 1 at 02:50 AM CDT | Winnipeg Free Press

IT'S an issue unique to this south-eastern Manitoba riding, but not one likely to be debated between the incumbent and the four challengers who want his job.

Earlier this year, Conservative MP Vic Toews found himself on the receiving end of some unflattering stories involving his personal life that wouldn't play well in the province's Bible Belt. In fact, the relationship the province's most powerful federal politician had with a Tory staffer who is now a young mother, apparently had him, at one point, considering stepping down from politics to be appointed a Court of Queen's Bench judge.

Toews, the former justice minister and current Treasury Board minister, declined to comment on the reports as he stressed that he intended to stay in politics. Meanwhile in court, divorce proceedings from his wife of 33 years continued.

The matter faded away after Toews wrote in the Steinbach Carillon, inviting constituents to contact him directly if they want to talk to him about private matters he refused to discuss with the media.

"Every day, every situation and every decision bring choices as to which path to take," Toews wrote. "Most times I believe that we choose the correct path; however, as human beings we will sometimes choose incorrectly. I am no exception and I take full responsibility for the decisions I make."

Now, almost four months later, talk of Toews' personal life is again an open topic as Liberal, NDP, and Christian Heritage Party candidates knock on doors in the Steinbach area.

"That comes up often, almost as often as health care," Liberal Shirley Hiebert said. "I tell them I don't want to go there, that I want to talk about the issues. Obviously, if they're talking about it, it's a concern."

NDP candidate Ross Martin and David Reimer of the Christian Heritage Party have heard the same thing at the door.

"Many people are bringing it to my attention," said Reimer, founding pastor of Shalom Family Worship Centre in Steinbach.

Martin, like Reimer, said when it comes up with voters, his reply is quick.

"We're dealing with policy," Martin said. "We won't delve into it. Policy is what counts."

The fifth candidate running in Provencher is the Green Party's Janine Gibson. The independent organic food inspector ran in the last federal election in 2006, getting 1,830 votes to Toews' 25,199.

Hiebert, who earned a PhD studying First Nations health care, said other issues in the riding are child care, the economy and the environment.

This is Toews' fourth federal election campaign since 2000, when he was first elected to represent Provencher, which has a long history of voting Conservative.

The riding includes Lac du Bonnet, Steinbach, Altona, Lorette and Pinawa, where candidates meet Oct. 9 for an all-party forum. The riding also includes several native reserves and Whiteshell Provincial Park. The agricultural sector employs most people, followed by manufacturing and the service industry.

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca
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  #27  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 5:15 PM
wags_in_the_peg wags_in_the_peg is offline
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I think GLOVER (Cons) has a very good chance in St. B. she's been prepping for 2 yrs and although old st.b and norwood are hard core liberal, the riding also includes island lakes, southdale, royalwood which are all heavy conservative. she stresses she is METIS and has 5 KIDS, although she not french, she has a chance!
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  #28  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 5:47 PM
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Also her role with the Winnipeg Police gives her name recognition. The best part however is that she is intelligent and down to earth, I was fortunate to have a conversation with her about a year ago and I was impressed.
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  #29  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 5:47 PM
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I think GLOVER (Cons) has a very good chance in St. B. she's been prepping for 2 yrs and although old st.b and norwood are hard core liberal, the riding also includes island lakes, southdale, royalwood which are all heavy conservative. she stresses she is METIS and has 5 KIDS, although she not french, she has a chance!
She was walking the beat on my street this summer. Very friendly and didn't say anything about me standing on the sidewalk with a glass of wine. She would have my vote.
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  #30  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 7:54 PM
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My hoping for Tervor Kennerd in South Centre seems to be a very fruitless prospect. I really was hoping that people in the riding would tire of Anita Neville. Perhaps that riding is much like Winnipeg South, where you vote more for the colour of the sign, and not so much the name on it.
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  #31  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 8:03 PM
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My hoping for Tervor Kennerd in South Centre seems to be a very fruitless prospect. I really was hoping that people in the riding would tire of Anita Neville. Perhaps that riding is much like Winnipeg South, where you vote more for the colour of the sign, and not so much the name on it.
^ what qualifications besides kicking footballs does Kennerd have though? If I lived in that riding, it would be my first question to the Conservatives.

It seems to me that the (at least in Winnipeg) the conservatives place more meaning on name recognition than they do actual political chops.

Thomas Steen, Trevor Kennerd, Shelly Glover... these are all names people are familiar with. Maybe they are nice people... but so what? There are lots of nice people out there.
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  #32  
Old Posted Oct 1, 2008, 8:19 PM
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I suppose, Tina Keeper isn't a household name. I don't think Shelly Glover can be aptly depicted as a prop-candidate. I'll grant you Kennerd and Steen. However, in Manitoba - more so vivid at the provincial level - we elect nobody. We just kick people out. I still contend that Doer has never been elected. We booted Filmon out, and Doer was left as the best flavour, with no replacement yet available, and thus on Broadway he will remain. Federally, people in Winnipeg South tired of Reg Alcock. You can argue that he spent time away - and that certainly hurt him - but Conservative MP's in Alberta spend much of the election a long way from their territory. Alcock was ousted because he was there a long time and because people in Winnipeg South tired of the Liberal brand. I don't think on any level people can contend that Rod Bruinooge is in ANY way a stronger candidate than Alcock. I actually like John Loewen, and detest to great lengths Bruinooge's concrete anti-abortionist stance. However, I'm a huge fan of Harper and will be voting for the brand. Thus, to come full circle, even though Trevor Kennerd doesn't offer too much political experience I was hoping the Winnipeg South Centre riding (of which a portion of it is very affluent) would tire of a perceptively weak Liberal leader and a party that in my opinion appears to ignore the interests of the West, and instead cast their ballot Tory Blue. In this equation, having a recognizeable name never hurt anyone. Alas, it is how Sam Katz got into City Hall.
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  #33  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 2:25 AM
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Federally, people in Winnipeg South tired of Reg Alcock. You can argue that he spent time away - and that certainly hurt him - but Conservative MP's in Alberta spend much of the election a long way from their territory. Alcock was ousted because he was there a long time and because people in Winnipeg South tired of the Liberal brand. .
People in South Winnipeg didn't tire of the Winnipeg brand, they got caught up in the whole Adscam fiasco that allowed the conservative candidate the opportunity to squeak out a victory in an otherwise safe Liberal seat.

Had Adscam not happened, Alcock would still be where he is, and further, Glen Murray would be the MP for Charleswood/Assiniboia.

The way that Alberta votes is a pretty isolated case I would think. I brought this up in the Canada votes thread, but in Alberta it seems that any Conservative Candidate could go door to door in their constituency and punch every eligable voter in the face, and still win with 75% of the vote.

Alberta would vote in 90 to 100% conservative MP's even if Stephen Harper ran a campaign to reinstate the NEP, and a full fledged Monarchy system with himself as King (well the King part isn't that far from the truth).

Persoanlly, I am an ABC in this election.

Traditionally I am a soft Liberal supporter. However where I live (Winnipeg Centre) there is little chance that Pat Martin will NOT win. Therefore I will vote NDP so that I don't in effect split the centre/left votes to somehow let the Conservative Candidate a chance to squeak in.

I hope this election ends the same as the previous with a Conservative minority. This will give the Liberals official reasons to dump Dion, and put somebody electable in his place. I really hope it's Kennedy.
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  #34  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 2:55 AM
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Alcock had almost the same votes for him in the last election as he did in the previous one. The difference this last time around was voter turnout, with one of the highest voter turnouts in Western Canada. The majority of those "new voters" who showed up voted conservative. So I think what that says is that Rod campaigned well enough to convince people that they had to take action to defeat Reg. So this completely follows the we don't vote people in we vote people out mentality.
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  #35  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 3:27 AM
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^ that's not entirely accurate.

Take a look at this wiki page regarding WInnipeg South:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winnipeg_South

Alcock's support went down 10% last election. Even with or without the "extra" votes, the loss in popular support is what cost him the election, not extra people in the voting booth.

Going back further in the election data on the page, it is obvious that Winnipeg South has a fairly close amount of support historically between the Liberals and Conservatives.

Check the results from 1953, 1962, and 1988. All within a couple hundred votes.

Last edited by drew; Oct 2, 2008 at 3:50 AM.
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  #36  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 6:34 AM
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Had Adscam not happened, Alcock would still be where he is, and further, Glen Murray would be the MP for Charleswood/Assiniboia.
Glen Murray would have never have won Charleswood/Assiniboia. Why he chose that of all city ridings to run in, I'll never know.
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  #37  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 1:07 PM
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what qualifications do you need to run for politics? people are dissing a patrol sargent, a former kicker, a former hockey player....who cares. would you rather have some book smart guy with a phd that has never really worked in real life or maybe a lifetime civil servant? give me a former entrepreneur that worked hard to get where he/she is any day over someone like that.
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  #38  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 1:34 PM
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Glen Murray would have never have won Charleswood/Assiniboia. Why he chose that of all city ridings to run in, I'll never know.
Again, I invite you to check the wiki page.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles...0%94Assiniboia

Murray lost by 734 votes. That seat was certainly considered "safe" by the Liberals, and I guarantee that he would have won had Adscam not happened.

In the previous elections when John Harvard held the seat for the Liberals, the PC/Alliance combined vote total always exceeded the Liberal total by a fair margin. The fact that Murray only lost by 734 means he stole away a lot of previous conservative votes, and again, would have won had the Liberal popular vote not fell.
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  #39  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 1:41 PM
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give me a former entrepreneur that worked hard to get where he/she is any day over someone like that.
Well the kicker, hockey player and police officer are certainly not "entrepreneurs".

Why shouldn't we expect that people running for political office shouldn't possess something other than a pretty face and charisma?
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  #40  
Old Posted Oct 2, 2008, 3:31 PM
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I am a huge lover of politics - BUT - if you are a talented individual who can succeed in the business world (a private world) then why in heavens name would you consider public life unless you were a glutton for punishment, or really truly believed that you and you alone could be a beacon of change?

Case in point:
If I'm a successful entrepreneur, then I'm likely making well in excess of 6 figures annually (or more) where my life - although fairly hectic (vis a vis business demands) - is still private, and unobstructed (more or less) by the general public. As soon as I opt for a public life, every step I take and if my rank is high enough, the steps of my wife is put under the microscopic. Above and beyond the interrogation by numbers, I would be taking a substantial financial hit. Thus, unless I have a legit chance at sitting in the PM's chair - or a portfolio of choice, like Defense, or Trade (and nobody starts at the top) - then what would be the allure?

As it stands today, our premier in Manitoba is paid somewhat like an average small business owner. Perhaps the taxpayer won't justify a significant salary hike, but there is no way you are going to draw top-tier talent for $120,000 or so annually.

Of course, this is just my opinion, but the people who possess the skills we need/desire can apply their abilities in a certain sector and earn at a substantially higher level.

Then again, I'm not trying to argue that a Mitt Romney-type is a hero. Just that skills tend to equal big dollars in the private sector.
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