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  #681  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2017, 9:40 AM
CIA CIA is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hamilton View Post
Second of all, the rate of construction permits right now is at the lowest since the recession. It seems people are having trouble getting financing, due to a perception of oversupply, whether that's valid or not. Jersey City has had about 850 apartments get construction permits in the past 12 months. For comparison, 1930 apartments got construction permits in the 12 months before that.
This made me curious. Looking at data from: http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa...un/bpann16.htm

Looks like there is a slowdown.

Building Permits for Jersey City in 2014
2,180 Total
1,884 was for multi-family development 5 units or more

Building Permits for Jersey City in 2015
2,658 Total
2,306 for 5+ units

Building Permits for Jersey City in 2016
1,494 Total
1,226 for 5+ units

Building Permits for Jersey City in Jan-April 2017
343 Total
276 for 5+ units


I'm not too worried with lenders being cautious. Say there is a total pool of $1 billion in construction financing for the developers of Jersey City. Developers will need a loan at the start of construction, and banks may be weary of having too much lent out at any one time, but developers refinance their buildings into permanent financing once construction is complete. The construction loan is repaid to the bank and the bank can once again lend it out.

2015 was a peak and where definitely in a trough now. I predict in 2018 we're going to see a strong rebound in construction stats.
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  #682  
Old Posted Aug 12, 2017, 3:51 PM
citybooster citybooster is online now
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I really hope so. I can understand caution but I think there still is healthy desire for rentals and condos, though I agree with both Hamilton and CIA doesn't necessarily need to be higher end luxury high rises...need small and moderate sized filer too for workforce and middle class.
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  #683  
Old Posted Aug 14, 2017, 2:15 AM
Hamilton Hamilton is online now
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Thanks for the source, CIA.

In case anyone is interested in month-to-month permitting data (which I used to calculate the rolling 12-month permit numbers), you can use the Census's BPS data set:

https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/Pla...east%20Region/

It's a bit more annoying to interpret than the data set you provided. Each month is in a different file. "ne1703c.txt" for instance, has March 2017 permit totals, while "ne 1705c.txt" has May 2017 permit totals. "ne1703y.txt" has cumulative (year-to-date) totals from January to March 2017. The files can be opened by changing the extension to ".csv" and opening the file using Excel or Google Sheets
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  #684  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2017, 3:24 AM
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Building permit data through June: http://lwd.dol.state.nj.us/labor/lpa...pmun/bpytd.htm. Freakin' Harrison is building twice as much as Jersey City. Newark is also building more. Bankers concerned about oversupply JC? Once the new developments start to reach stabilized occupancy, construction financing should be free flowing again.

Journal Squared II doesn't look like it's included in the data yet (they must still be operating under the demo permit). That should be a nice boost to catch up when it's officially under construction.
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  #685  
Old Posted Aug 23, 2017, 2:44 PM
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NJ state of mind: Toll Brothers revenues fueled by sales across the Hudson
Homebuilder reported $1.5B in revenue, up 18%, during third quarter

Quote:
Toll Brothers can thank the bridge-and-tunnel crowd for its recent gains in the New York metro area.

The national homebuilder said sales activity at two large New Jersey projects drove third-quarter revenue at its City Living division, which pulled in $98.7 million, up from $52.5 million during the third quarter last year. The uptick reflects 78 closings (up from 14), the bulk of which were at 1400 Hudson Street in Hoboken. Toll also accepted 49 contracts at its 1400 Hudson Street condominium in Hoboken, which launched sales six weeks ago. And it sold 17 units at 121 East 22nd Street, a 140-unit condo near tower Madison Square Park in Manhattan.

CEO Doug Yearley attributed strong sales in New Jersey to lower prices at those projects. “We have to work harder to sell units at higher price points, although we’re not competing in the super-tall or super-expensive condo product,” he said during an earnings call Tuesday.
Full article at: https://therealdeal.com/2017/08/22/n...oss-the-hudson
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  #686  
Old Posted Aug 29, 2017, 8:26 PM
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A few odds and ends I've through-the-grapevine and from looking through offline city records:

*The owner of the lots at the western end of Cottage Street (136, 137, 140, 142 Cottage St) has been granted permission by the City Council to vacate this end of the street (a dead end). The owner would now be free to build a single building that incorporates the lots on either side of Cottage Street, as well as the stub that has been vacated. The as-of-right height is 6 stories here.

*The city's development map shows a proposed project at the United Methodist Church on the Boulevard and Tonnelle. But the church's lot is in a preservation zone (landmarked), so they would need a rezoning or deviation to modify the church building.

*KRE Group appears to be in talks to acquire the lots at the northwest corner of Bergen Ave and the Boulevard, including the sites of the Rite Aid and the McDonald's. I think I learned this from former JCRA chair Bob Antonicello, don't remember. The as-of-right height is 25 stories.

*The developer behind the as-of-right 17-19 Perrine Avenue building that was rejected by the Planning Board last December has filed suit, asking the courts to overturn the decision as arbitrary and capricious. 100% chance he will win in court, but it may take a few years.

*The building at the northeast corner of Vroom and Academy has broken ground. 134 Academy is the address, I think. 91 units & street-level retail.

*Van Leer Place South, at the foot of Hoboken Avenue, is well under construction, with rebar sticking out of the foundation. Same with 235 Grand, the 45-story tower at the southern end of Grove Street which will include an expanded park. Also currently undergoing foundation work is the 25-unit building at Newark Ave and Waldo above the Harsimus Cemetery.

Last edited by Hamilton; Sep 6, 2017 at 4:11 AM.
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  #687  
Old Posted Sep 11, 2017, 4:16 PM
limak116 limak116 is offline
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Some renders released for the 2 new towers by the Holland. Looking spiffy. https://jerseydigs.com/jersey-city-d...ering-details/
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  #688  
Old Posted Sep 11, 2017, 4:48 PM
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Wow, those towers look pretty good.

I look forward to the Holland Tunnel area turning much denser and more vertical.
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  #689  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2017, 9:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CIA View Post
I can also report a mega development is being planned after Urby Harborside is complete.

http://data.jerseycitynj.gov/dataset...-map3.8.17.pdf

104 and 105 on the development map is being planned for a thousand units each. The site is larger than Urby, but for ballpark comparisons, the Urby towers are ~750 units and rising 69 floors. What will a thousand unit building bring?

Harborside Plaza 4 is now planned to be mixed use. The number of units, not including the sizeable office component is 1,500. I'm assuming it will be another twin tower development as the site is farily large and it would be impossible to have a million sqft office building plus 1500 units on top. Although, it would explain this rendering.


Harborside Plaza 4 is the really tall tower on the left.
This thing is suppose to start November, 2017. Some form of it, anyway.
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  #690  
Old Posted Sep 15, 2017, 9:38 PM
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Urby is 85.9 percent leased (655 units out of 720 or whatever). OFFICE DEMAND is WEAKER than anticipated along the Hudson County waterfront. If I were Mack Cali, I would ditch an all office Harborside 4 and go with mixed-use with sizable rental component.
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  #691  
Old Posted Sep 16, 2017, 12:47 PM
citybooster citybooster is online now
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Not quite sure what you meant, CIA... what exactly is starting up in some form in November?

I agree wholeheartedly regarding Harborside 4... I don't believe any office building with this kind of news will be developed soon other than the one in Newport by the pier... keep hearing something is happening on that soon but they don't intend to go high rise here but something mid rise with a nice amount of retail/restaurant public amenities. New York is going to see a big office building jump particularly in mid town and the West Side in the next few years with Hudson Yards and other projects. No real need for office space here unless as a lower priced alternative to the prime space being developed over in the city. However plenty of opportunities for residential/mixed... as far as the eye can see!
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  #692  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 1:03 AM
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Not quite sure what you meant, CIA... what exactly is starting up in some form in November?
The Harborside Terminal renovations to add retail and other urban enhancements. I want to say there is a rumor that there is even a ferry dock planned for the site.
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  #693  
Old Posted Sep 17, 2017, 1:17 AM
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Jersey City is granting planning approval for units at a rate much faster than developers are willing (...or allowed) to build. Is the issue with the banks, a little skiddish about a perceived oversupply? There is a lot of developments that broke ground last year that are still in construction. But as they finish up and begin leasing, units have been flying off the shelf. There are roughly ~8,000 multi-family units currently under construction. Hopefully we see at least another 8,000 break ground in the next couple of years. Once the banks see the Jersey City market is able to absorb the new units coming online, it will prove the fears of an oversupply are unfounded and should open up the financing floodgate. Big thanks to New York City's burgeoning economy for making this all possible.
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