Federal election in London/Windsor/SWO

ssiguy · #1 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 3:52 AM**

Just thought I would start a thread about the federal election and the results for London/Windsor/SWO.

Like all of Ontario, the areas is home to many battlegrounds and it's support seems to reflect the Ontario averages. Interesting to see that the Liberals may take London West according to www.threehundredeight.com

Interested in your thoughts as the area will be one that gets a lot of attention.

jaradthescot · #2 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 1:05 PM**

I also remember when I first went to university back in 2006 that the Green party had a strong showing in London North-Centre, presumably a result of many student votes. They recently announced "tuition free schooling" and "student debt forgiveness" in their platform, so they might be a wildcard now too.

MolsonExport · #3 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 1:10 PM**

If the Liberals look set to take London West, then that is how I will cast my vote,
If the NDP look set to take London West, then that is how I will cast my vote

haljackey · #4 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 2:25 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

If the Liberals look set to take London West, then that is how I will cast my vote,
If the NDP look set to take London West, then that is how I will cast my vote

Same here. Strategic voting will be helpful if you don't like the Conservatives in both London West and North Centre.

north 42 · #5 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 2:39 PM**

I'll be voting Liberal as I will never vote NDP, and I hate Stephen Harper! Unfortunately, many Windsortes tend to vote in back benchers with no real power, so I'm not too optomistic about this election.

tyeman200 · #6 Posted **Sep 11, 2015, 8:43 PM**

I'm still at a cross between voting for the NDP and Liberal.

It's funny though, going around London, I haven't seen a conservative sign in sight.

ssiguy · #7 Posted **Sep 12, 2015, 3:06 AM**

Yes, London West does have the slight advantage to the Liberals right now but it is a tie when including the margin of error.

SWO is very much a microcosm of Ontario........NDP getting the urban and working class vote, Liberals getting the progressive centre urban vote, and the Conservatives dominating in rural and small city areas.

Essex could be a bit of an exception as it is favored to Conservative but the NDP are not far behind. I believe it is a riding similar to Elgin/Midd/London..............a small urban pocket that is out weighted by a mostly rural and hence Conservative riding.

Sarnia/Lambton is the same type of scenario but the urban vote is more pronounced but still mostly Conservative due to the Conservatives getting nearly all the rural vote with the NDP and Liberals splitting the urban vote.

ssiguy · #8 Posted **Sep 12, 2015, 3:15 AM**

Have to add something quite funny that happened just 2 days ago............I went into my Liberal White Rock/ South Surrey campaign headquarters to discuss some issues and the Liberal candidate happened to be there. Seems like a very nice and certainly humourous retired woman and the Liberals have a slight lead over the Conservative and their star candidate, the ex-mayor of Surrey, Dianne Watts.

I told her I had not made up my mind but I was certainly an ABC voter. I said I will be voting partly on the leader, policies, and if necessary, strategically. She mentioned that many people are going to the site www.together.ca for those ABC voters who's biggest concern is to get rid of Harper. It certainly works in her favour as the Liberals and Conservatives are very competitive in our tony area with the NDP far back. To be fair she said if you have friends or people on line where it's an NDP/Conservative battleground, then encourage them to vote NDP strategically.

Funny thing is I saw her 2 days ago and yet yesterday she was forced out as Liberal candidate for the riding because of a rather tame comment she tweeted 2 years ago about pot and how it can reduce family violence.

Turns out I will be waiting for a new candidate and checking the website she gave me and may end up voting NDP.

Blitz · #9 Posted **Sep 12, 2015, 4:32 PM**

The ridings to watch seem to be London North Centre, London West, and Essex. Outside of those three if it's a rural riding the Conservatives will win and if it's an urban riding the NDP will win. There is a popular city councillor running for the Conservatives in Windsor-Tecumseh and there are actually lots of Conservative signs in that riding right now...but I can't see her swaying enough people there to actually vote Conservative. Essex is a tricky one to call because it's such a mix...it contains a swath of suburbs, a few decent sized small towns, and a large rural area.

MolsonExport · #10 Posted **Sep 13, 2015, 2:54 AM**

The cons get the gawd squad vote, always. Alas, there are so many here in SW Ontario.

Pimpmasterdac · #11 Posted **Sep 13, 2015, 3:06 AM**

Who wins whichever riding isn't the important question. Rather what if X party wins, what will they do for London & SWO?

So far the election has been a media circus more about Syrian refugees, or trial about fat fuckin pigs that call themselves senators. Sideshows that don't focus on the real issues that many want discussed. Policy has come in bits and pieces so far, with no full platforms of the big 3 being released.

5 weeks in an eternity in politics but looks like another minority coming our way...

ssiguy · #12 Posted **Sep 13, 2015, 3:33 AM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

The cons get the gawd squad vote, always. Alas, there are so many here in SW Ontario.

There are a LOT more bible thumpers in the Fraser Valley and BC Interior than there are in SWO.

BTW, I screwed up the website. The current link I put goes to a humanitarians site as I wrote together.ca but the correct website is www.votetogether.ca

HillStreetBlues · #13 Posted **Sep 14, 2015, 12:33 PM**

Holder has an advantage in London West in that he's received more press lately as a newly-appointed (junior) member of cabinet. I think that, in practical terms, it will be hard for strategic voters to accurately gauge which of the NDP or Grits they should be supporting on election day, and will wind up splitting the share of the vote rather equally, as last time around.

London North Centre is the one to watch, I think. I expect the Liberals will take it, but that's not a given. The students could wind up voting in greater numbers, and for the dippers.

electionprediction.org is a good resource for both well-reasoned analysis from observers in individual ridings, and blatant wishful thinking on the part of hard-core partisans.

ssiguy · #14 Posted **Sep 15, 2015, 2:41 AM**

Interesting to know that Sarnia-Lambton is considered the nation's most bell weather riding. It has consistently voted for the governing federal party every election since 1963.

Now the Conservatives have a decent lead in the riding but again this a completely new election as we have 3 parties all in a statistical tie especially in Ontario.

MolsonExport · #15 Posted **Sep 15, 2015, 4:01 PM**

Goddammit, I couldn't take another Conservative mandate. I can't fucking stand their style of government and I disagree fundamentally with their priorities.

haljackey · #16 Posted **Sep 15, 2015, 6:05 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Goddammit, I couldn't take another Conservative mandate. I can't fucking stand their style of government and I disagree fundamentally with their priorities.

If you're #1 priority is to get rid of con I suggest checking out http://anyonebutharper.net/

Underlined party is the suggested one to vote for (as of now anyway).

ssiguy · #17 Posted **Sep 16, 2015, 2:35 AM**

I think this election will have more strategic, and hence more riding focused, voting than we have seen in decades.

I think MolsonExport is like millions of Canadians, their top priority isn't so much Liberal, Green, or NDP but rather getting rid of Harper.

MolsonExport · #18 Posted **Sep 16, 2015, 12:51 PM**

Yes, I plan on voting strategically with the goal of ousting the Harperites. I have nothing against Ed Holder personally; I just can't stand the platform of the Conservative party.

manny_santos · #19 Posted **Sep 16, 2015, 6:34 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Yes, I plan on voting strategically with the goal of ousting the Harperites. I have nothing against Ed Holder personally; I just can't stand the platform of the Conservative party.

Ditto - a good MP and community man. Wrong party.

HillStreetBlues · #20 Posted **Sep 17, 2015, 4:47 PM**

Quote:

Originally Posted by MolsonExport

Yes, I plan on voting strategically with the goal of ousting the Harperites. I have nothing against Ed Holder personally; I just can't stand the platform of the Conservative party.

Out of curiosity, how will you decide who is more likely to win in London West? Just whoever is leading in the national polls? What if it's a statistical tie (as it seems to be now)?

That anyonebutharper site could be a good resource, depending on their exact methodology. Vote swapping makes a lot of sense for people on the left, or "Anybody But Conservative" voters, who are in ridings easier to get a feel on.