Could it happen?
The Province
Published: Sunday, February 17, 2008
Few British Columbians realize that t
he probability of a major volcanic eruption hitting B.C. is the same as that for a mega-thrust subduction earthquake expected sometime in the next 50 years.
That prognosis comes from Catherine Hickson, lead volcanologist for B.C. at Natural Resources Canada and a risk-assessment specialist.
"We're not talking about something as explosive as Mount St. Helens, but we're not talking about the slow, bubbling lava flows you go see in Hawaii, either," she says of Mount Baker, the biggest volcanic threat to B.C.'s most populated region.
"I think it's quite probable that [in my lifetime] we'll see ash plumes that may go about 10 kilometres above the volcano and cover the surrounding area."
The most vexing consequences of such an event, Hickson says, would be the flooding of Sumas Prairie -- if the eruption occurs in the northernmost reaches of Baker's crown -- and a blanket of ash that could blacken parts of the Lower Mainland.
A major ashfall in Vancouver would be unusual, but not impossible in the event of a Mount Baker eruption, says David Tucker, a geologist at Western Washington University and a leading expert on volcanic ash.
Based on meteorological data, he says, there is only a one-per-cent chance that winds carrying airborne volcanic debris would pass directly over Vancouver.
The chances are significantly higher, however, for eastern areas of the Fraser Valley.
The wind would most likely blow in from the southwest -- which it does about 27 per cent of the time -- and carry the ash over to Hope, Chilliwack and as far as Princeton and Penticton.
Wherever it lands, the coarse dust would render most types of machinery useless, especially those that require air filters, such as cars, electrical transformers, air conditioners and computer hard drives.
The ash fall
Transportation
Volcanic ash is abrasive enough to down a plane in mid-flight, and the same destructive power applies to vehicles.
"It's like putting sand in your engine," says Tucker. "It would be scouring your cylinders, and that amount of dust and ash getting into your wheel bearings is not good. It could even short out your electrical system."
Tucker recalls that drivers got around the ash clash when Mount St. Helens erupted in 1980 by putting nylon stockings on their vehicles' filtration systems.
Cities close to the historic blast also had to hire special street-sweeping machines to scoop the ash from roadways and prevent it from washing into drainage systems, where it could settle and harden.
So for those who want to be truly prepared when the big one blows: cover your wells and stock up on pantyhose.
Water
In the event that a volcanic event drops ash on the Vancouver area in the next eight months, citizens may have to rely on bottled water for some time.
But with the opening of the new Seymour-Capilano filtration plant this fall, B.C.'s largest city will be safeguarded from a volcanic threat to drinking water.
"Being heavier than water, most ash would drift to the bottom [of the intake supply], so it would be a turbidity event similar to experiences we've had," says Doug MacQuarrie, water treatment superintendent for Metro Vancouver. "The only thing [ash in the water] would mean is we'd be back-washing our filters a lot more often."
Communication
In an emergency, help is meant to be just a phone call away. But during a volcanic event, B.C. phone service providers would have to take special steps to ensure the lines remain open.
"Our emergency plan does account for volcanic ash," assures Telus spokesman Shawn Hall. "We would expect that it would affect some of our transmitters and receivers, primarily for wireless service, but also for wired service, particularly in remote areas."
Hall explains that Telus has a stash of dust masks ready for crews that would have to monitor and clean ash off those transmitters and receivers during and after the eruption.
Power
B.C. Hydro says outages due to equipment failure could also occur if the province were coated in ash.
"The electromagnetic fields of the ash would have an effect on . . . our distribution equipment -- the lines that take power from transformers to people's homes," says company spokeswoman Gillian Robinson Riddell.
"We've looked at what effect volcanic ash would have on our system and what equipment we would need to deal with that."
Similar to Telus, B.C. Hydro has trained technicians who would be ready to restore power. Riddell compares the effort required during an eruption to that during severe winter storms.
Pneumonoultramicroscopicsilicovolcanoconiosis
n. a disease of the lungs caused by the inhalation of very fine silicate or quartz dust and occurring esp. in miners. -- Webster's Third International Dictionary
That mouthful is the longest word in the English language, and it's also the disease you'll be diagnosed with if you inhale volcanic ash. In layman's terms, the tongue-tying infirmity is known as black lung.
Symptoms
- Nasal and throat irritation, runny nose, sore throat,
dry coughing, shortness of breath.
Treatment
- Vancouver respirologist Dr. Stephan van Eeden estimates
Lower Mainland hospitals could see a patient surge of 20 per cent or more during a volcanic eruption.
- Those without pre-existing lung or heart conditions who inhale significant amounts of ash would become more vulnerable to infections such as bronchitis.
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