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  #12801  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2019, 2:26 AM
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Would space be a limitation for growth in BC? Much of the land in the southern reaches (and northwest) is quite rugged.
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  #12802  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2019, 7:41 AM
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I don't think that would be an issue. Washington and Oregon combined have nearly 12 million people. BC could hold millions more than it currently does.


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I don't think Alberta will continue to grow the way it has for the next 50 years. Once automobiles and mass transit vehicles switch to electric over the next 20-25 years the oil industry will be a shell of its former self. Alberta will need to further diversify its economy and will likely settle into growth numbers to that of BC or maybe even Manitoba once the oil advantage doesn't mean much anymore.
Even the low growth scenario has us at over 6 million. I'd guess realistically we'll end up somewhere on the low end between the low and M1 scenarios, like 6.2 - 6.3.
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  #12803  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2019, 8:12 AM
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BC could easily double its population, but it will require the province actually building new highways, bridges, and railroads.

The entire east side of Vancouver Island between Nanaimo to Campbell River has a lot of decent undeveloped land ( thousands of square kilometers) that could easily support urban spaces and even new farmland, for example. Not to mention the Sunshine Coast.
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  #12804  
Old Posted Sep 18, 2019, 10:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Metro-One View Post
BC could easily double its population, but it will require the province actually building new highways, bridges, and railroads.

The entire east side of Vancouver Island between Nanaimo to Campbell River has a lot of decent undeveloped land ( thousands of square kilometers) that could easily support urban spaces and even new farmland, for example. Not to mention the Sunshine Coast.
Yes. The Island alone could easily have 2 million. The existing highway between Parksville and Campbell River is already mostly freeway too, and can handle triple the traffic...

However, as you said, the governments (Province/Feds/Munis) would need to build some infrastructure of course. If we had that many people on the Island I'm sure that a fixed crossing would be done somewhere to the mainland. Nanaimo and Courtenay already have decent airports for their size with room to grow (assuming air travel doesn't become verboten for leisure travel one day due to GHGs).
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  #12805  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2019, 2:13 AM
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There's enough plazas parking lots and sprawling estate land in Nanaimo to support a population of 10 million without expanding its boundaries; in GVA 100 million.

Canada is not running out of land.
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  #12806  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2019, 7:46 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
Certainly one can make approximations about population growth based on such things as average age of the province, birth rates, ethnic make-up etc but the reality is that all those estimates could be completely out of wack. This is because so much of Canada's population growth is reliant upon immigration and immigration is a political decision.
Nova Scotia grew by 11,000 people from Q2 2018 to Q2 2019.

Statistics Canada is predicting (M1 scenario) that Nova Scotia will grow by 30,000 people in total from 2018-2043.

There has been a trend toward increased immigration in Canada and immigration to a wider variety of destinations within Canada. Back in the early 2000's, Toronto and Vancouver received a much higher share of immigration than they do now. Given the cost of living and economy around the country, I don't see why we should expect a reversal of this trend without some clear evidence. As you say, immigration will completely swamp births vs. deaths and domestic migration in many areas.

One thing I wonder is how much they model sub-provincial areas. Let's say you have a province where 50% of people live in an area that will grow by 2% per year and 50% live in an area that will shrink by 2% per year over the coming decades. This seems like a "balanced" scenario where a province will stay at the same population but actually it's a long-term growth scenario since the declining area shrinks as a percentage of the whole, and the overall growth rate goes more and more into positive territory.
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  #12807  
Old Posted Sep 19, 2019, 10:11 PM
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Originally Posted by someone123 View Post
Nova Scotia grew by 11,000 people from Q2 2018 to Q2 2019.

Statistics Canada is predicting (M1 scenario) that Nova Scotia will grow by 30,000 people in total from 2018-2043.

There has been a trend toward increased immigration in Canada and immigration to a wider variety of destinations within Canada. Back in the early 2000's, Toronto and Vancouver received a much higher share of immigration than they do now. Given the cost of living and economy around the country, I don't see why we should expect a reversal of this trend without some clear evidence. As you say, immigration will completely swamp births vs. deaths and domestic migration in many areas.

One thing I wonder is how much they model sub-provincial areas. Let's say you have a province where 50% of people live in an area that will grow by 2% per year and 50% live in an area that will shrink by 2% per year over the coming decades. This seems like a "balanced" scenario where a province will stay at the same population but actually it's a long-term growth scenario since the declining area shrinks as a percentage of the whole, and the overall growth rate goes more and more into positive territory.
I would assume the limiting factor in the population growth in NS would be the aging population. In otherwords, Halifax will probably continue to grow as the rest of the province continues to depopulate but at a faster rate as the older folks start to die off at a faster rate.
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  #12808  
Old Posted Sep 20, 2019, 12:44 AM
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I would assume the limiting factor in the population growth in NS would be the aging population. In otherwords, Halifax will probably continue to grow as the rest of the province continues to depopulate but at a faster rate as the older folks start to die off at a faster rate.
The likelier explanation is that their projection is based on the assumption of a much lower rate of immigration than what has happened during the past few years after the federal government raised the cap for the province.
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  #12809  
Old Posted Sep 20, 2019, 1:23 AM
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These predictions are worthless. Growth comes almost exclusively from immigration, and we're in total control of that lever (there's a proportionally "infinite" pool of people wanting to come here, the only question is how many we decide to let in per year).

Projections make little sense nowadays... back when the population was reproducing, it was different - THAT could be forecast to a degree. But now, whether we're 80 million or only 40 million at any given point in time later this century is 100% our choice (or to be exact, the choice of the people we'll be electing).
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  #12810  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2019, 3:29 PM
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What interesting to me in all these projections is at what level of immigrants will be bringing in people for jobs as automation will be eliminating jobs on a go forward basis? I wonder what the level we will need people will go up, down or not and the type of jobs we will need and if the government has released this study.
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  #12811  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2019, 6:44 PM
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Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
These predictions are worthless. Growth comes almost exclusively from immigration, and we're in total control of that lever (there's a proportionally "infinite" pool of people wanting to come here, the only question is how many we decide to let in per year).

Projections make little sense nowadays... back when the population was reproducing, it was different - THAT could be forecast to a degree. But now, whether we're 80 million or only 40 million at any given point in time later this century is 100% our choice (or to be exact, the choice of the people we'll be electing).
Completely agree. So much of Canada's current and future growth is/will be dependent upon immigration levels and that is a political decision. As we know political decisions can change with the next poll so it makes growth projections nearly impossible. Yes things like age distribution, birth rates, ethnicity make-up effect population growth but relatively they are small potatoes compared to immigration rates.

This is incredibly bad public policy. From pension & old age security to whether to build our new schools, hospitals, housing, roads, transit, and power plants requires us knowing our future demographics and with so much of our growth being dependent on immigration it's impossible to tell as that relies on our politics du jour.

At this point estimating our future demographics is akin to estimating who will win the elections for the next 50 years. Immigration rates and/or population growth rates should be made in a multi-party environment so that long-term fiscal, economic, and social & physical infrastructure needs can be properly planned for to ensure those needs are met and in the most cost effective manner.
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  #12812  
Old Posted Sep 23, 2019, 8:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ssiguy View Post
This is incredibly bad public policy. From pension & old age security to whether to build our new schools, hospitals, housing, roads, transit, and power plants requires us knowing our future demographics and with so much of our growth being dependent on immigration it's impossible to tell as that relies on our politics du jour.
While I get why this is not the greatest policy, I'm not seeing a great alternative.

Planning much beyond the mid-term (say, the next 10-20 years) for most things is fraught with uncertainty. Huge things can happen in a 50-year time horizon - imagine trying to plan for Canada 2019 from 1969.
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  #12813  
Old Posted Sep 24, 2019, 5:13 AM
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They will never be able to exactly project population growth but can certainly make vastly more informed projections if we could take the politics out of immigration. All the main partiies should sit down and actually put the needs of the country first above their political party aspirations and agree to set a set number of immigrants and what kind per year for the next 30 years.

Whether they think we should bring in a million per year or none at all, they should come to an agreement on the absolute number or percentage of population and have all parties sign a binding 30 year argreement so demographers and planners can do their jobs with some hard facts and not political calculations.

When you have guidelines to go by you can plan ahead but if you have no gauge to go by then you are forced to react resulting in poorer public services, misallocated funds, and far higher infrastructure costs.
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  #12814  
Old Posted Sep 25, 2019, 9:30 PM
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A humorous take on all the doom and gloom about us being the only province with a declining population through 2040-whatever.

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  #12815  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:03 AM
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Numbers . . . we certainly do get hung up on numbers.

NFLD has lost over 3,000 people this year, which is a lot of people, but statistically it is 0.66 of one percent of the Jan1 population. Really, in spite of our addiction to growth, the population is essentially stable.

And Calgary and Edmonton. Edmonton's 2018 population is 96% that of Calgary's. In most senses, they are the same size.

And while I am on about it, percentage growth rates do not take precedence over real growth. The cumulative effect of a higher percentage growth rate will certainly compound the overall population of one jurisdiction over another. Except, population change is not mathematically governed in that way. It is not predictable like a static loan rate is. Percentage growth rates for population are not stable. So, in one sense, real growth numbers equal real difference between two cities, or provinces, etc.. The tools we have to argue these differences only give static snapshots and are not in any way conclusive.

Surrey might overtake Vancouver . . . but it is not a certainty.
Alberta might overtake BC . . . but maybe not, we'll see.
Toronto may catch Chicago . . . or Chicago may boom again and take off.
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Last edited by Marshal; Sep 26, 2019 at 12:15 AM.
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  #12816  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Marshal View Post
Numbers . . . we certainly do get hung up on numbers.
But the endless arguments to be had.

What is an internet forum if not somewhere to have a pissing match about something that really doesn't matter, or that we don't really have control over?

I might actually have to do the dishes if I stop doing this.
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  #12817  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:41 AM
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NFLD has lost over 3,000 people this year, which is a lot of people, but statistically it is 0.66 of one percent of the Jan1 population.
And StatsCan, for whatever reason, doesn't calculate this number correctly.

Our net loss is around 1,300 for the year. StatsCan tends to focus on migration between provinces and, as best as we can figure out, they count our births, only subtract a portion of our deaths, and don't account for international immigration at all.

The same is true of their predictions. Their 2040-whatever stats that show us being the only province with a declining population assume that by 2040 we will be getting about 1,700 immigrants annually. We're almost at that today, and it's been going up about 25% per year for a while now.

But in any event, our provincial stats confirm when ALL things are considered, our population today is about 1,300 less than it was 12 months ago.

One silver lining...

For a long time we've been dealing with people who move to Ontario, Alberta, wherever, work, pay taxes there, then come home to retire and draw on our services without ever having paid into them. Statistically, that has completely reversed. The most likely Newfoundland expats to move home today are young couples who just started their families. The most likely to move away are recent retirees moving to other provinces to be close to their children/grandchildren (who moved away more than a few years ago when these stats were reversed). So, financially, that will benefit us in the long run.
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Last edited by SignalHillHiker; Sep 26, 2019 at 6:05 AM.
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  #12818  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:48 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
But in any event, our provincial stats confirm when ALL things are considered, our population today is about 1,300 less than it was 12 months ago.
This bring up an interesting point.

How does StatCan or the provincial stats agency track these things?

Births and deaths are pretty easy. Do they track people moving out of province by driver's licence? By where they change the domicile for Revenue Canada?

Inquiring minds would like to know.
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  #12819  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:53 AM
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It's everything - motor vehicle registration, mobile plans, provincial health insurance, any interactions with any level of government (property taxes, utility bills, etc.). StatsCan has an extra layer of access to very detailed employment data (T4s, EI record, etc.) If you're on the grid, and move, all levels of government know very quickly. Or rather, I should say, they CAN know very quickly. It's not like anyone is actually watching anything except to get stats every month.
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  #12820  
Old Posted Sep 26, 2019, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by SignalHillHiker View Post
It's everything - motor vehicle registration, mobile plans, provincial health insurance, any interactions with any level of government (property taxes, utility bills, etc.). StatsCan has an extra layer of access to very detailed employment data (T4s, EI record, etc.) If you're on the grid, and move, all levels of government know very quickly.
The 'official' stuff I gathered - following you SIN number or stuff like that for StatsCan.

Does the provincial one do so well because they just have more information or because you're more likely to interact with the province than the feds?
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